Archive for January 6, 2024

Over the holiday period I didn’t bother checking the latest NAVADMINs, because spending time with my family was for more important. So when I looked this week, I saw I missed a doozy: the Navy’s message concerning retention boards.

In December the Navy announces its promotion boards, which are in January (for Captains), Feb-March (for Commanders), and April-May (for Lieutenant Commanders). Some years ago the Navy began convening the retention board immediately after these boards to decide the fates of anyone not selected for promotion. The overarching policy of retention boards is a direct measure of the health of the service, and well, the Naval Service is not healthy.

Take a look at NAVADMIN 291/23. I’ll break it down below:

Paragraph 2 states that any Captain (O-6) that has certain AQDs (basically, special training or expertise in a specific area) that relate to Acquistion can stay until 33 years of service. Normally Captains have to retire at 30 years of service. This isn’t a huge surprise, the Navy is in dire need of Acquisition Workforce personnel, so it’ll keep anyone that it can.

LCDRs (O-4s) that twice failed to select for CDR (O-5) will simply be kept until 20 years, when they can retire. They won’t even be considered for retention…it’s assumed. In the past the retention board could be used to shape manpower by removing the bottom performing LCDRs. That is not happening at all now, essentially if you have a pulse and made O-4, you can stay till 20 years.

Let’s say you’re a LCDR that is a flight instructor, chaplain, cyber warfare engineer, foreign area officer, information professional, maritime space officer, medical corps, nurse corps or supply corps. What if you want to stay past 20 years? Well, you can!

URL 1310 aviators with primary AQDs of DIP or DA5/DA7/DB2/DB5/DB6/DD1/DH3/DL3/DS2 (TACAIR), CWE, FAO, IP, and SC officers selected for continuation will be continued for a period of 3 years to 23 YOAS.  CHC, MSO, MC, and NC officers selected for continuation will be continued until the last day of the month in which the officer 
completes 24 YOAS.

That right there is a bad sign. That means we are significantly short in all those areas, and we’re willing to keep people for an additional 3-4 years to cover the gaps.

What about Lieutenants (O-3s)? Typically LTs that are passed over twice for O-4 are sent home at the end of the next fiscal year. The only LTs I’ve seen the Navy hold onto are people that were prior enlisted and needed another year to reach mandatory officer retirement criteria. But now:

Lieutenant (LT)  Aerospace Engineering Duty Officer (AEDO), CHC, CWE, Cryptologic Warfare (CW), Dental Corps (DC), FAO, Intelligence Officer (INTEL), IP, Judge Advocate General's Corps (JAGC), MC, Medical Service Corps (MSC), MSO, NC, and SC will follow the below as applicable:
a. 2XFOS LTs covered in paragraph 4 with less than 18 YOAS and selected
for continuation will be continued for a period of three years, but not
beyond retirement eligibility at 20 YOAS.

FOS stands for “Failure of Selection.”

So now LTs can stay for 20 years until they can retire. I never thought I’d see that, but here we are. Granted, it’s not every officer, but it won’t surprise me if the retention board eligibility expands to include more officer specialties.

I want to remind everyone that this crisis was generated 100% by our own government:

  • We changed the retirement system way back in 2016-2018, which was the number one thing that kept good people in past 5-10 years of service. I predicted this would end badly, by the way.
  • Then we started losing wars, specifically Afghanistan. We drew out of Afghanistan in a horrible way, so everyone that lost limbs or part of their sanity fighting in that war felt betrayed. This in turn made them tell their kids to never join the military.
  • Oh, and we stayed around in Syria so more of our people could die needlessly. Because nothing says we love our Special Forces more than allowing them to die needlessly in a crappy country where we don’t have an exit strategy.
  • THEN, we kicked people out over the COVID vaccine. Instead of handling that crisis with care, we booted people with general discharges. But don’t worry, we’ll invite them back, I’m sure they’ll come in droves!
  • THEN, the Navy played politics and openly told Congress to go f*#! themselves and used OPTAR money to pay for abortion.

NOW, we are SHOCKED! SHOCKED! that we are in a huge recruiting. crisis. I made a prediction back in February that the Navy would use its “BINGO card” to keep people in:

  1. Not kicking people out for physical fitness test failures
  2. Waiving darn near everything, from age to non-violent felonies
  3. Asking people to pretty-please stay around a few more years
  4. Opening OCS and other admissions
  5. Raising bonuses
  6. Make life better for officers
  7. Reduce opportunities to leave early
  8. Op-Hold people

The Navy has in fact done all the things in bold. The only missing one is making life better. Maybe that’s a draw, since if you wanted free time and per diem off to go murder your unborn baby, you can now get it. The only prediction that hasn’t held was that the Navy would remove marijuana from its drug test, although it was totally an option in Congress.

My prediction for 2024: it only gets worse!

  • We’ll relax rules on marijuana, opioids and other drugs
  • Mental health rules will relax
  • Bonuses will be handed out just to get on the bus
  • We’ll create some new ribbon candy to congratulate people on passing boot camp
  • We’ll see Navy advertisements EVERYWHERE, especially on Reddit, YouTube, Amazon Prime and other streaming platforms

None of it will work. When we spend more time focused on renaming the John C Stennis aircraft carrier, continue to allow flag officers to violate rules and get away with it (remember, you can sexually assault people and not go to jail, so long as you’re a 3-star in the Air Force), and continue to allow a broke acquisition system to churn out expensive weapons, we can’t recruit the best people. The best men and women want to join the Navy to fight for their country, with people and leaders they trust and on equipment that works. They want people held accountable for their actions, and they want others to hold them accountable because that’s how they become better.

We’re doing all the wrong things, and I expect 2024 to be another terrible year for military manning.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency.

  • Sir Bedevere: What makes you think she’s a witch?
  • Peasant: Well, she turned me into a newt!
  • Sir Bedevere: A newt?
  • Peasant: [meekly after a long pause] Got better.
Monty Python and the Holy Grail 1975

The Jack Smith “Trump is going to have his enemies killed if elected” story brought back memories of a young lady I once knew.

About 7 years or so ago, just before my temp job became a full time one I used to work with a particular young lady.

She was 30 years younger than me, very intelligent and a hard worker. Her older sister had gone to school with my youngest son and also worked at the place but as a full timer. 

We got along like a house on fire although we were about as politically and religiously different as we could be. I was a straight devout Catholic who after Ted Cruz had lost in the primaries was all in on Trump and while she was a lesbian or perhaps bi who was all in or Bernie and had walked away from the Church, though devoted to her still devout French Canadian grandmother.

While as I said we got along well one of the things about her that regularly dove me nuts was her INSISTANCE that Donald Trump was going to put her in a gulag for being a lesbian.

No argument or evidence could convince her otherwise and even after Trump’s election she remained convinced that any day now a Trumpian gestapo would come for her to her final day at the company back in January of 2018 she clung to this belief. I ran into her older sister who left the company a year or so ago (a great loss to the place) last week and inquired about her. She told me her sister was doing well and apart from the COVID isolation that everyone had gone through had not in fact ended up in a gulag during the entire span of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Which brings us to election 2024.

I’ve already noted the invincible irrational hatred that some have for Trump which I think will be a real problem come election day, but the only thing more irrational than that hatred (particularly from some conservatives) is the abject fear of some liberals of a 2nd Trump term in terms of their personal freedom.

To put it simply. If there is one thing that was perfectly clear during the Trump years is that while he had harsh words and abrasive and even insulting tweets for those who opposed him Trump did not censor nor imprison those who opposed him loudly.

You’d think that if Trump was a wanna be dictator he might have, you know, acted like a dictator, imprisoned a few folks on “Trumped” up charges, used the power of the FBI or the IRS against them or even gone after those burning cities and thrown the book at them for their terroristic actions.

Or to put it another way: If you ask people to raise their hand if Donald Trump imprisoned or even censored you for speaking out against him during his first term the number of hands that will go up will be equal to the number of Camels this person has spotted.

On the contrary it was In fact it was Trump himself who was often censored and/or misrepresented particularly when he suggested that there were treatments for COVID out there that were effective and the Biden administration who has used all of these tactics on those who might dare suggest that the previous election was not clean and the government’s statements on COVID might not be all that accurate.

Put simply Trump has a record of not imprisoning’s or harming his foes, so what makes anybody think that he’s going to be doing so if re-elected, particularly since he will go into office as an instant lame duck who can’t run for a 3rd term?

Of course this kind of logic is lost on the Jack Smiths of the world and on those who think looting and burning cities is fine but walking through the capital while police hold doors open for you is high treason and can’t tell the difference between barbarians who rape murder and kidnap women and children and those who retaliate against the folks who do so.

No amount of argument will apply here. This is a matter of faith for them and if we are blessed with a 2nd Trump term they will insist that their lack of imprisonment was simply because he either didn’t get around to it or that the brave democrats of the house prevented him from doing so.

Unexpectedly of course.


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