Archive for the ‘war’ Category

Iran: A Win Everywhere but on Social Media

Posted: June 18, 2026 by datechguy in Always look at the bright side of Trump, economy, Uncomfortable Truths, war
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Anthony Rossano: I guess you’re pretty pleased with yourself.
“Snaps” Provolone: My father would have been proud. I got my money back, and nobody got shot.
Anthony Rossano: Not so fast. I’ve been tricked. (reaches for the bag of cash)
“Snaps” Provolone: (grabs his hand) I wouldn’t do that if I were you.
Anthony Rossano: You forget, Mr Provolone, you’re going straight today.
“Snaps” Provolone: You’re right, I am going straight today, (points to the Finucci brothers in the next room) but they’re not.

Oscar 1991

One of the problems with social media in general and X in particular is the amount of extreme stupidity without thought that is expressed by people who believe the world is a video game because they haven’t had to deal with actual real world consequences of actions nor ever had real responsibility for anything that involves someone other than oneself.

Which brings us to the Iran deal or Memorandum of Understanding.

You can make the argument that we should have gotten regime change. I would have liked that very much and as a student of history and of war I’m even of the opinion that if a war which cost 10,000 US troops as causalities ended in the fall of the Mullahs it would, in the long run be to the benefit of the world in general and the US in particular. It’s worth noting that almost nobody I know would have borne the brunt of the fighting nor would have I have the responsibility of either convincing America that it’s worth the cost or writing the wives, mothers or children of those who would fall in such an action which would take at best many months, that the country is grateful for the sacrifice of their loved ones.

You could make the argument that we should have just kept bombing, that’s fine but who and what are we bombing? Do we hit military targets? Mosques? The oil fields? Are there strategic targets that would advance our efforts more that are worth our time? They have very little that can project power outside of their country left and what is able to project power inside of their country is embedded within the people. You can argue it’s worth doing but eventually it becomes big booms for small returns.

You could make the argument that we should have simply continued with the operations we were doing. That’s a strong argument as Iran is reaching a crisis point economically, and the costs of such a move military are negligible. The cost in cash to support our military on station isn’t all that much more than doing so elsewhere and our logistics are in place and every existing tanker in the gulf that we get out is one less that Iran can intimidate.

For the record I would have supported any of those three actions as being old enough to remember the hostage crisis in the Jimmy Carter years and seen what the rise of the Mullahs has done to the world (you don’t get what you have in Europe today without them) I think it’s worth it.

The problem with all three of the above scenarios is that the American people do not have the political will for any of them. Maybe when I was a kid we might have, but we live in a different society right now where not even on in 100 people serve in our military or know people who have. Where the price of gas is more valued than the price of lives by voters and where one political party has been doing all it can to support Iran & encourage them to hold on because their hatred of Donald Trump far exceeds their love for their country as both their actions and the polls clearly show.

So Donald Trump has decided on a deal a “60 day” deal which I strongly suspect will turn into a 150 day deal. I’ve read the text of it and it reads like it was written by Sir Humphrey Appleby. Most things that happen happen if other things happen first, it pretty much kicks cans down the road and basically says we’ll leave them alone as we talk to make an actual deal.

The great advantage for Iran is that it allows them, as a face society to claim some kind of victory and a bunch of people are trying to make that argument, but consider:

  • They no longer have a navy
  • Their air force is hiding in other countires
  • Their entire senior leadership is dead
  • They have exhausted a large amount of their drone and missile supply
  • They have been hurt financially to the point where their ability to project power overseas with cash is completely non-existant.

There are those who are saying that the 60 or 150 days allows them to reverse those factors but DOES it?

  • Are they going to rebuild a navy in 150 & find men willing to join?
  • Is their air-force ready to return to bases in Iran to become potential targets?
  • Are their new leaders going to feel safe anywhere in groups of 3 or more without a large amount of human shields?
  • Even if places like Russia & China have the will and the additional supplies to help Iran rearm there is
    • Insufficient cash on hand to do so
    • Limited cash from oil sales available as other suppliers are safer
    • Any Frozen assets released once used are gone
    • The base cost of rebuilding infrastructure that has already been bombed

Moreover we have the absolute ability to monitor all of this stuff via satellite & other methods, every supply method, every route will be visible and become a target for the next round of bombing when it comes.

Furthermore this isn’t a game of Civ 6 when you click a button and damage is rebuilt in one turn. It actually take real people physical time to do these things. I’m not going to say it will be as slow as the railway to nowhere that the left in California has been leeching off of for years and years but Iran is not going to be able to rebuild or project power or fund Hezbollah & send them arms for years let alone in 60, or 90 or 180 days.

Meanwhile consider what will be happening in the US both economically and politically for the Trump administration..

  • The economy continues to roll
  • Our ability to resupply & rearm for fleet and forward troops continues unabaited
  • Our manufacturing jobs continue to soar
  • With the drop of gas prices (down .36 cents in the last two weeks) the political pressure on Trump continues to drop
  • With the increase of American Oil exports the demand for Iranian oil decreases
  • Every day the Saudi pipeline to bypass the gulf moves closer to completion
  • Every tanker that leaves the gulf is one less tanker that the Iranians can use as hostages
  • Every Iranian tanker on the high seas becomes a target that can potentially be seized without much effort.

And all of that takes place with US forces still close enough to go after Iran at any time Donald Trump decides they aren’t playing ball.

Even worse for Iran the drop in gas prices undermines their allies on the left that have been doing their best to prop them up and hurts them politically. Unless they can engineer a crisis before the midterm elections it’s very likely that a strong economy will “Trump” the left’s desire to handcuff the final two years of the Trump in office.

What do they have to play: “Trump said ‘Unconditional Surrender’ hah he lost!”? Seriously? Have none of these people read his book on deal making?

Cripes you might recall US Grant who coined the phrase “Unconditional Surrender” ended up giving generous terms to Lee and Johnston (vs Sherman) to end the war. Did he lose?

If you want to find a historical parallel to what we have now it’s in the battle between the frigates USS United States and the HMS Macedonian during the war of 1812.

The United States with heavier longer range guns pulverized the Macedonian for a long while and then sailed off briefly to repair minor damage done the British ship’s cannon fire.

As soon as it was ready it sailed back toward the heavily damaged British frigate that during the brief respite was able to do little if anything to put itself back in fighting shape.

Stephen Decatur then put the United States in a position to rake the British ship (that is shoot with any danger of their guns replying) and held his fire. The brits took the hint and Decatur ended up taking the ship as a prize of war.

That’s where we are right now. Trump will spend the next six months getting his economy and his supplies in order knowing that he can at any time bomb again. Once he has finally secured a stable alternate oil supply for the world he will be in the position to seize Kharg Island if he wishes.

Iran can not rebuild or rearm or generate sufficient cash to stop this. If Trump does this things the Iranian oil industry is permanently done as the Mullahs only choice will be to destroy the pipelines that feed it or the target the oil on the island with drones. The moment that happens Iran becomes a nation without assets that can be safely ignored as it will never be able to project power or obtain revenue for generations.

In short they become a footnote to the world another Afganistan, a bunch of fanatics without the power to harm anyone but themselves

Put simply we continue to grow stronger while Iran at best struggles to maintain a semblance of order.

And any thought of reconstituting their nuke ambitions? Please, the labs, the trained techs and the machinery doesn’t grow on trees. All of that takes time, effort and heavy construction that Iran can’t do at the moment and that if it starts can be blown up at will.

In short Trump won this war the moment he started shooting & killed the Iranian leaders. He hoped Iran would fold easy, but they did not so he has the choice of winning it fast with high causalities or slow with minimal risk. He has chosen the latter and no amount of fools on social media saying otherwise changes that fact.

The only “Victory” Iran has is the ability to publicly claim it, which as a “face” society means a lot to them, but Egypt has been claiming that the 1973 war with Israel was a “victory” for 53 years but it didn’t make it so.

Or to put it another way. In what sense is Iran in better shape than the day before Trump started hitting them? (short answer, they’re not).

Closing thought 1: There seems to be a lot of talk about Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah concerning this deal but having read the document I didn’t see the words “Israel” or “Lebanon” or “Hezbollah” anywhere.

Closing thought 2: To my knowledge Israel is not a signatory to this deal. Therefore they are not restrained by it at all. There is nothing stopping them from hitting Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah, hitting Gaza or even hitting Iran. I suspect if they do Trump will make loud public protests after the fact that will upset allies of Israel, but do nothing to prevent it before the fact. Bibi is Trump ace in the hole:

Closing thought 3: You can also make the argument that like all Tyrannies this is a crack in the dam that will eventually cause them to fall. Tyrannies always seem invincible to the outside world just before they collapse suddenly.

Five Up too early for a Saturday Thoughts Under the Fedora: World Cup Highlights, The Hardest Part, Musk’s Trillions, Iran Trickling down and Big Finish to the Rescue?

Posted: June 13, 2026 by datechguy in Always look at the bright side of Trump, doctor who, employment, Sports, under the fedora, war
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I spent some time watching World Cup Highlights yesterday and those highlights demonstrated why the sport is not worth my time.

The highlight reels ran 15-20 min with several replays in them so maybe 10-12 minutes of play. That from a match that runs 90-100 minutes. That’s 80 minutes of dead time where there is no much happening but a guy kicking a ball back to another while they look for a chance to make something happen,

Contrast this with Baseball which while not having a clock has the potential for a run to be scored & a highly happening on every single pitch.

Give me the pine tar & the leather any day.

The worst part of being out of work is the waiting.

Last time around in 2008 I couldn’t buy a job interview. This time I’ve had quite a few. I’m waiting on three companies right now 2 of which had told me I’d be hearing back from them up or down before this point.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m very happy that I’m getting interviews it’s the waiting that throws me for a loop.

It’s not easy at 63 to be competing for positions with people 20+ years younger than you.

Let me remind you of several somethings concerning Elon Musk’s soon to be Trillion dollar net worth.

  1. Musk employs tens of thousands of people
  2. Musk is actively using his wealth for some rather incredible things
  3. There are plenty of people who have never built anything who will critique his wealth for profit. power & clicks.
  4. There are plenty more who only started hating on him once he became a threat to the power of the left or to virtue signal to said left that they’re one of him.
  5. As the old saying goes, he will still be able to only eat one meal at a time & sleep in one bed at a time & will like all of us eventually die.
  6. The only think that really counts in the long run is his relationship with God, I’d worry more about that but I’m too busy worrying about my relationship with God.

But the real thing about Musk’s wealth is this: It’s nothing to do with me and not my concern. He has what he has and does what he does and what he so does is his own business, not mine. I have no more right or claim on what he has than the guy down the street has to mine.

Over the past two weeks gasoline has dropped .29 cents from it’s high in my area. About 9%.

While that’s nice it’s still up 57% from the low it had hit before the Iran War.

This causes me pain but it’s still worth it if Iran is emasculated. What the people who are complaining about the lack of a deal or Trump not getting said deal or bombing them on any given day either don’t understand or ignore is that every day that passes Iran grows weaker and we grow stronger.

As the tankers continue to come to the US & we keep getting tankers in the straits out Iran’s leverage continues to drop. Yeah if we were willing to commit 100,000 troops we could likely bring them down and take the country & the oil but at the cost of 1000’s of US lives that while justifiable in the long run to destroy once & for all the leading terror sponsor in the world, is a price our current society is unwilling to pay & unnecessary if Iran can be emasculated without doing so.

The price will keep trickling down slowly as the alternate supplies continue to open up. I suspect if things aren’t concluded right away it will take till the end of August to see gas at $2.99 again. By that time Iran will be capping wells and their ability to finance jihad outside will be practically finished, which frankly they are almost at now anyways.

That’s a lot less sexy than seeing the Mullahs fall just like winning the cold war over 50 years was a lot less sexy than Patton leading his army against the Soviets in 1945 would have been, but I’ll take less sexy with thousands of less casualties every day of the week.

Finally word is out that the Doctor Who Christmas special is nixed & the BBC is pretty much taking bids to see who wants a shot at running the franchise that they’ve driven into the ground once again.

Like the anti-thatcher stuff that killed it in 1989 the work stuff has made Doctor Who so Toxic that actors have no interest in the iconic role & fans don’t care.

In my opinion the solution is obvious, I’d give it to Big Finish which has been producing original Doctor Who stories for more than a quarter of a century & doing so without needing a government imposed fee to pay the way.

While they have their share of woke they are experts at making stories that people are willing to pay actual money to hear, and while they don’t have experience in TV that doesn’t matter as the special effects and or cinematography are not the problem here. it’s the stories and as Big Finish says: Big Finish, We Love Stories!

Let Big Finish supply the scripts and Doctor Who can thrive again, or let the TV show die and let Big Finish run the Time Lord as strictly audio. Remember it was six years of Big Finish stories starting a decade after the final show that caused it to return. And even if it dies here, remember the first episode was broadcast in 1963 when I was six months old.

Not a bad run.

Iran: It’s Worth it, Even at the Cost to my Wallet & of Election 2026

Posted: May 5, 2026 by datechguy in economy, middle east, politics, war
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Paul Crewe: Hey Pop, the time you hit Hazen in the mouth, was it worth 30 years?

Pop: Yeah: For me it was.

The Longest Yard 1974

Last week I filled up my gastank at $4.009 a gallon.

The $4 barrier was a big shock as gas had plummeted during the 2nd Trump term to a point where I had paid $2.56 just before the start of the war with Iran. That had saved me a lot of money and it showed.

I had hoped that things would be over before a final oil delivery but it was not and my oil delivery cost considerably more than I had budgeted, fortunately my prepay had still covered it so the impact wasn’t as bad as it could have been.

With my job about to end this week after 10 years these additional costs are a real strain on the family budget and I imagine that for people who are less careful with their money, which I imagine is most people, the gas increase is a matter of real pain.

Gas is now $4.27 everywhere as we start getting fuel that was traded on markets at the top of the spikes.

It’s a real concern not just financially but politically because the cost of gas increases the cost of everything else and the Democrats who didn’t say boo when gas prices were like this during the Biden years are making hay of it all.

Every incentive both personal for me and political for conservatives in election 2026 screams for things in Iran to end yesterday.

But when it comes down to it, none of that matters, because this is a defining moment for the country and the world.

For 47 years the Islamists in Iran have been the number one source of murder and terror in the world and have exported this terror to almost every corner of the planet. Thousands of Americans and tens of thousands of others have lost their lives become of their direct actions over this time. They have been the delivery system for all our enemies who want us dead. For 47 years they have chanted “Death to America” and I’ve never for one moment thought they didn’t mean it.

America had opportunities to stop this. Reagan, could have gone in regardless of the Hostage release but was dealing with the cold War. Bush one didn’t want to upset Arab allies as he dealt with Iraq. Clinton was more interested in not getting booted, Bush two who actually had Iran surrounded on three sides never pulled the trigger and Barack Obama, It’s my opinion that he’s been on Iran’s side from the very beginning of his presidency and into his 3rd term running the autopen man.

The single greatest thing Donald Trump can do for the United States and for the World is removing the Islamic Republic from the face of the earth.

  • It will save countless lives, free the people of Iran from the terror they’ve lived under.
  • It will destroy terror networks and connections that will take our foes years to rebuild.
  • It will change the face of the middle east permanently giving an incentive for Israel’s neighbors to make peace
  • It will deprive both Russia & China of a proxy used to attack us and intimidate others
  • And it will deprive Islamists of a nuclear device (at least until England and France fall)

All of these gains are stacked against a tighter belt for me and mine.

There is no contest.

I hate where Gas prices are, but if they reach $5 and Iran falls this year, it’s worth it.

If the economy slows because of the increase in gas prices, but Iran falls this year, it’s worth it.

And if the Democrat left, which I suspect is doing all it can to encourage Iran to hold out actually wins both houses of congress because of this war, but Iran falls IT’S STILL WORTH IT!

All of those things me a harder life for me in the short term, but a better life for my sons and myself and the entire world in the long term.

About 85 years ago my father found himself in the Pacific fighting a war for the world’s survival while at home my ancestors on both my mother and fathers side did without in order to support that effort until it was won. Because of their sacrifices I lived in a safer world in freedom.

You and I are being asked to do the same but on a much smaller scale and with a lot less pain.

Let’s be worthy of those who came before us.

Mr. President, fight this war to win. I know the world will not thank you for it, in fact they will publicly curse you for it and teach others to do so. A generation of idiots (outside of Iran itself) who already hate you will hate you more. The Europeans whose oil supply you will scorn you and don’t even think of the Nobel Prize that you had earned for your actions of the past year.

They will attack you for the rest of your life and dance upon your grave with you go to face your maker. They will live to do it in freedom and security.

But even as they do all of these things, you will have the satisfaction of knowing that the freedom, security & even the lives that they spend mocking you, will have been a gift you have freely given them asking nothing in return.

That’s one great legacy.

Five Iran War Thoughts Under the Fedora: Ignorance is the rule, Yes they get to shoot back, Ukraine gives a hand, The only two advantages Iran Has, Israel’s big Drone Endgame

Posted: March 13, 2026 by datechguy in middle east, under the fedora, war
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One of the disadvantages of the all volunteer army is that you have 1% of the population serving so that the vast majority of people in the nation have absolutely no idea how the military or how war works.

A good example of this is the fuss over the meals for the troops but a better example is the shock, SHOCK that the enemy gets to hit back in war.

Without history being taught properly combined with only movies & TV to give them a reference means people don’t know what they’re talking about & are easily taken.

We have pretty much destroyed the air & navel arm of Iraq and have done so at a cost so minimal that military historians will be writing about it for centuries.

Yet because of the ignorance that I mentioned above, the slight amount of causalities we have suffered are being treated as a disaster by the left & being sold as failure.

This is war, the enemy gets to shoot back and occasionally they will get lucky and occasionally we will get unlucky with a failure of equipment or even human error.

Additionally our enemies (Russia & China) while not providing direct aid are undoubtedly proving whatever intelligence available

This is war and in war some of our troops are going to die. This is a reality and the price that’s necessary to destroy an enemy who has been killing our people since I was a teenager.

Ukraine has gotten a lot from us over the last 4 years to help in their war vs Russia (and not just the graft either) and until now they had little that we needed.

But there is one thing that they have in abundance that we do not have & would be most useful in the effort to destroy the Islamic republic: years of practical experience in drone warfare, both in offence and defense.

It is reported that Ukraine is now sharing that experience with us and those that are being hit by Iran.

This is a smart move by Ukraine, if Iran falls one of Russia’s key allies goes with it and thus weakens Putin further. Additionally such help make it more likely that Trump will be more amenable to releasing more aid with less questions is a helping hand is given.

Nothing builds an alliance more than mutual self interest.

To say Iran is getting pummeled is the understatement of the year. No level of propaganda, tweet farms & paid influences spinning makes all of this any less of an absolute disaster to the Iranian Muslim leaders and their networks.

Combine this with Israel’s use of intelligence to use drone attacks on small checkpoints to eliminate those whose job it is to repress the people and all the cards look poor for them.

They do however have two advantages one tangible and one not.

The tangible advantage is the clock. The war powers act gives Donald Trump 60 days to do what he can without a vote in congress. While there is every chance he would win such a vote (no matter what the MSM says) the longer the war goes on the better the chance that any kind of reversal can be played upon by the left or that the cowards in the congress will be subject to their fears.

The intangible advantage is Islam itself.

I suspect there are plenty of people in the Iranian government working for the Mullahs or the secret police that are IINOS (Islamic in name only) who are doing what they do for the money and/or doing it out of fear for their families or even to “be somebody”.

But I also suspect that there is a percentage of these people who are true believers in radical Islam, Who think that “Death to America” isn’t just a chant but a holy command.

Those true believers will fight to the death because they think they’re serving God. If there are enough of them it will be real trouble for us because people who don’t care if they die are capable of anything.

Granted neither of these are big advantages but you have to play the cards you have.

Finally when it comes to drones Israel has made it an art.

With information given via Iranians in Iran they have been able to strike at individual checkpoints within cities. In other words at the people who actually do the killing of protestors who want the Mullahs gone.

Even if the US stops bombing if Israel can keep this up then the game is up and done. Without those guys holding the people back there is no way to stop a popular revolution.

I think the Mullahs might lose their country before I officially lose my job

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