“First we must cross the river,” Benito was saying. “Do you believe me now when I tell you that you must not attempt to swim it, or even get wet from it, or must you try that too?”
“What happens if I just dive in?”
“Then you will be as you were in the bottle. Aware and unable to move. but it will be very cold, and very uncomfortable, and you will be there for all eternity knowing that you put yourself there.”
Larry Niven & Jerry Pournelle Inferno 1976
Lately we’ve been seeing a lot of posts about Democrat panic as things continue to get worse in the country and more and more of what the left has been doing continues to come out.
But then actual reality slips in and that’s when you get nailed:
Bonchie at red state puts it in perspective:
The GOP challenger was James Guzofski, a local pastor who once proclaimed from the pulpit that the prophets told him Trump won the 2020 election. He lost by 12 points in a district that current Republican Gov. Chris Sununu won by 22 points. In other words, this wasn’t some long-shot blue district. This was a district the GOP was supposed to easily compete in, if not be favored to win outright.
Moreover this puts the GOP majority in the house on a knife edge:
There are now 198 Republicans, 197 Democrats, two Independents, and three vacant seats in the state House.
Now you would think that going into an election with a 2 seat majority in a 400 member house the state GOP would have been all in concerning this election.
It was not.
There are several lessons here the first is this:
It doesn’t matter what the national pols are saying, if you are losing districts like this, that you absolutely have to win then you aren’t going anywhere.
People can get excited by Biden’s falling poll numbers all they want but if you can’t win a seat like this it those numbers are meaningless.
But more important consider this:
Guzofski is a Northwood selectman and a chaplain for the Northwood Fire Department. He has been in the ministry for 34 years. Guzofski said, “I have been elected twice to the office of selectman in Northwood dedicated to keep your taxes low. As selectman I have implemented plans for better communication between town officials and you. … For years I have served our Nottingham and Northwood community, fighting for your needs in town.”
Sounds like a person who is well known in the area and might have plenty of local pull particularly in a district where there former rep was a republican and the republican governor won by 22 points. But there is also the youtube video of him proclaiming from the pulpit that the prophets told him that Trump won the 2020 election.
Now it’s one thing to believe that election 2020 was stolen based on the evidence as I do, it’s another to proclaim that the prophets told you that Trump won in 2020.
One might think that the saints might be more interested in the state of a person’s soul vs the results of a national election but let’s stay on topic a sec.
How many voters who voted GOP in the past looked at that video and bluntly told themselves: “I don’t want this loony at the state house?” I’m guessing more than the 331 votes margin he lost by.
What does that tell me? Just this:
It doesn’t matter how many people show up at rallies in deep red states or just how inept Joe Biden is, there is a portion of the GOP vote that simply will NOT vote for Donald Trump or people associated with him and no amount of national polling or wishful thinking or saying how foolish this is will change that.
And it’s worth remembering this fellow had a long local footprint. He was the fire department chaplin, he was a local selectman he is known in the community but that didn’t matter. There are those who simply will not vote for a Trump associated candidate no matter how much of a local footprint he has:
I wish this was not true, but wishing that it’s not true or saying how unfair it is doesn’t change things.
I’ll give Bonchie the last word:
I may not be that smart, but I’m capable of learning from past mistakes, and I’m not going to blow smoke up anyone’s backside and suggest this special election result doesn’t matter. Clearly, given what happened in 2022 with special elections, it matters, and if something doesn’t change quickly among the Republican electorate, 2024 is going to be another swift kick in the teeth.
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