Archive for the ‘elections’ Category

The Left’s Southern Article of Faith Collides with the Data. (updated and bumped and recovered from the Wayback Machine due to Cynical Publius)

Posted: August 10, 2026 by datechguy in dablog, elections, politics, race card
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Prologue (8/10/26)

Today on X I noted this post from a very excellent Cynical Publius

When I saw this tweet I instantly remembered my post where I researched all of this however that was one of the posts that disappeared when I started having major blog problems (we’ll talk about the why’s for those troubles some other times) but I spent an hour or two researching & found a tweet linking to the post & was able to find the updated and bumped version from 2020.

As this lie about the south suddenly changing side with LBJ is Gospel to the left to this day rather than simply reinserting it into the sport when it was first posted I figured it deserved a full new post so here is it, unseen for years my data on when the southern states actually went GOP.

(Note, this post was originally posted on Aug 17th 2017. However the subject came up during my appearance on fault lines radio this morning so I thought I’d repost and bump it so listeners could see the actual post and data I was referring to.)

If you are even slightly a leftist such as the folks I covered on the Boston Common this weekend one of the things that you believe without question is that the only reason why the GOP has control of legislatures in the south is because of a backlash over the civil rights act of 1964 and the voting rights act of 1965.
This has been an article of faith for years and it’s quite handy when you want to explain away uncomfortable electoral defeats. Why woo voters when you can simply cry “racism”.

It’s an easy to sell argument, after all the pre 1964 south was called the solid south for a reason. Through 1892 no former slave state (including border states) voted for a GOP presidential candidate. No state of the old confederacy voted GOP post reconstruction till Tennessee voted Harding 1920. Through 1955 when the fight for civil rights started looming large the GOP only managed to take states in the old confederacy two more times once when Eisenhower after winning World War to managed to take Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia and once in the Herbert Hoover landslide of 1928 that added North Carolina to that list.

But the real power of the Democrats in the south wasn’t in presidential elections where they were outnumbered. It was in the state legislatures, where, with the exception of Missouri which was pretty competitive in the first half of the 20th century A republican speaker of the House in the old south and most of the old slave states (I’m missing data for Delaware) just didn’t exist.

And then came Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson

In 1957 Johnson in an effort “sanitize” himself on civil rights for a presidential run pushed through the first civil rights bill post reconstruction. When he became president after JFK’s murder in 1963 he managed to get the Civil Rights act of 1964 passed doing so with only 8 votes from the old confederacy in the house and none in the senate, he followed that up with the Voting Rights act in 1965 and declaring that he would secure the black vote for Democrats for the next 2 centuries (although he used somewhat different phrasing describing the black vote, employing a word rhyming with “trigger”).

It is at this point that according to our friends on the left that the old solid racist south (including many of the slave holding border states) decided to abandon the Democrat party and started voting GOP

However there is one problem that stands in the way of that argument: The facts.

As Tip O’Neill once said all politics is local and nothing better reflects the feelings of a local electorate than a vote for a state legislator. So if the left’s meme is to be believed it shouldn’t have taken more than a few two year election cycles for a combination of mass defections and outraged old racists to fill the south with GOP speakers in their houses. So let’s take a look at a chart that lists all the old slaveholding states and see how quickly those racist southerners and old segregationists managed to flip their states to their new favorite party.

[table id=1 ]

As you can see when the data is presented the left’s article of faith runs smack dab of a factual cliff.

With the exception of a two year period of in Tennessee when a democrat defector gave the GOP the house for one term, No state of the old confederacy elected a GOP house until 1995 and even with that happened in North and South Carolina, North Carolina flipped back to the Democrats the very next election and stayed there until 2011.

Of those states only one other (Florida) joined South Carolina as a solid GOP state in the 20th century five of the states flipped this decade. And think about it. If you believe our friends on the left then Alabama the state where Martin Luther King wrote is famous Letter from a Birmingham Jail and Mississippi the state where the famous case of the murder of civil rights workers dramatized in the film Mississippi Burning took place in the 60’s were so apparently so outraged over the Civil Rights act, the Voting Rights act and LBJ that their voters they waited nearly 2 1/2 generations to vote GOP.

That’s simply not credible.

Now as this is such an article faith for our Democrat friends they will sooner imagine armies of ancient segregationists bussed from Nursing Homes on election day each years than believe the data.

Because there is a much more credible explanation as to why the left is losing the South that’s staring them in the face but that’s a post for later this week.

Update:  Heard back from the Delaware legislative librarian 9/21.  She was out on Friday but when she got back she kindly provided me both house and senate info from 1965 to present that I’ve used to update my table.  Many Thanks

Does Anybody on the Right Still Remember How Winning Elections Works?

Posted: August 8, 2026 by datechguy in elections, politics
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Looking at the situation in Washington I see stupidity & cupidity both in DC by “conservatives” and online from “conservatives”

First in Washington:

I find it completely unbelievable that the GOP has not forced the Democrats to do an actual filibuster. This could have been done months ago and would have served two purposes both which would have been positive for the GOP.

The first of course was the possibility that they would be able to get a vote on the “Save” act. Given that voter ID is an 80-20 issue it is something that would help republicans nationally & force Democrats to insist that women and minorities are too ignorant to get ID’s.. The falseness of this argument is so easily proved as almost everyone has ID) & the cries of “racism” so phony (where are the lawsuits against Banks by lawyers seeking a quick buck) that it would increase GOP chances in the falls.

There is also of course the possibility that such a vote will pass. If it does the Democrats who rely on cheating to win are finished.

I’m convinced this hasn’t happened because quite a few members of the Senate on the GOP side are afraid of angering people who might have a desire to keep this from becoming law. As long as the bill is not in a position to be passed it costs them nothing to talk up the bill, but the moment there is a possibility that it could become a law they’re in trouble.

I think this is the real reason why the vote hasn’t been called. He’s protecting members of his own caucus from a vote they don’t want to take.

That’s a disgrace.

But the disgrace & the bad decisions aren’t only in Washington I see them also online among the base and it comes in two flavors.

Flavor #1 is the “Why isn’t everything done now!”.

By every since objective measure Donald Trump has accomplished more than any “conservative” president has managed since Reagan and more. Moreover he is managing to do this with all of Washington, all of media, all of academia & every person our enemies can buy online & in Washington doing all they can to stop him.

Moreover despite all the left/media claims he is doing all of this within the law, not defying courts, or trampling on the the Constitution. This upsets some people who have spent a life getting instant gratifications but the reality of life is actually doing things takes time. Particularly if you’re not looking to break the law or become a dictator.

That’s annoying enough (& I think augmented by bot-farms & paid folks trying to push this “Trump is a failure” business).but what really pisses me off is the reactions when we actually win.

The president got his AG choice passed 50-49 and while leftists are screaming bloody murder that it happened quite a few conservatives are screaming because the margin wasn’t higher because some GOP senators like Susan Collins didn’t vote for him.

For a party that’s supposed to know history this kind of thing is nonsense.

If folks knew their history they would know that this is standard fare, as I wrote about in the early days of the blog during the Obamacare debate:

The background: In the book was a Congressman Leo O’Brien who had promised a vote to Sam Rayburn on an issue and was getting killed at home over it. Since his word had been given (Yes that makes a difference, I still believe that one’s word is sacrosanct) Tip told him he had no choice but to go to Rayburn and ask to be released. (How hard must that have been) I’ll let Rayburn and O’Neill finish the story:

“…you gave me your word and I expect you to keep it. However I can certainly appreciate your situation, so here’s what I’ll do for you. On the day of the vote I want to see you in the front row. Keep your eye on the doorkeeper. If I don’t need your vote, Fishbait Miller will give you the sign and you’ll be free to vote your district.”…

…when Leo took his seat in the front row, he looked around and saw thirteen other guys that Sam had in his pocket in case he needed them. It wasn’t just Leo. The entire front row was sitting there and waiting for the nod from Fishbait Miller.

This is the real question that we don’t know the answer to. Does Nancy Pelosi have the votes and is just deciding who sits in the front row or is she scrambling for votes? And if the media knows what the truth is will they tell us?

It turned out she had the votes and made it a point to allow as many Democrats as she could in swing districts to vote against it & make a fuss about it.

Now Susan Collins is the last GOP member of congress in an increasingly blue New England. Despite being clearly the most liberal member of the GOP in the Senate & despite the complete ineptness of her opponents in Maine (only Donald Trump is more lucky in his enemies) her seat is still at risk. A vote in “opposition” to Trump might annoy but in the end it wasn’t needed for the win and if it gives her a better chance to win in November it decreases the chance of the left taking charge of the upper house.

Yet people are crying online that “true” conservatives in Maine should vote against her over it or that they hope she loses for voting against Trump.

Again there is an element of bot & paid actors in this bit but there are plenty of others who are either just click baiting or forgetting how keeping a majority in a country works.

The difference between being in the majority & controlling the agenda & being in the minority is huge & how huge is evident by the desperation Democrats have to get that majority back.

Let’s not help them by our own stupidity or let being annoyed cause us to make stupid decisions that we will later regret.

Under the Fedora: Georgia on my Mind, My 2022 speculation proves true, Could you have done it?, God Knows What he’s doing, Signs Inflation numbers and Busy Temps

Posted: December 20, 2025 by datechguy in Always look at the bright side of Trump, catholic, economy, election 2020, elections
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The fact that Georgia election officials are “not disputing” the fact that hundreds of thousands of early votes were illegally counted in election 2020 effectively costing Trump the state (and likely the GOP a senate seat) tells me how far the worm has turned.

4 years ago such an admission would have been the height of courage putting futures and prosperity at risk.

Today it’s a matter of fact statement.

I predict that as the risk to people’s futures decrease more of these kinds of admissions will come from various states. After all as I’ve said before cowardice is the norm courage is the exception.

At the time of the Mar-a-lago raid I wrote this:

The sheer panic on the left concerning a 2nd Trump term suggest to me something different.

Could it be that the left is even more corrupt than we think? Could it be that the stuff that they’ve been doing, enabling and coordinating is even more horrific than that worst conspiracy theorists have imagined? Could it be that the Epstein’s of the world are the norm for the left and not the exception and that they’ve only caught the one?

Given what we’re seeing in terms of fraud in Minnesota and the amount of Dems and their friends getting Epstein exposure these days this statement is becoming more and more apparent.

The President took some heat for his statements after the murder of Rob Reiner & wife by his own son. I would not have made those statements & think they were a bit crass. Said heat however is meaningless because:

  • It’s primaraly coming from people who never supported him anyways
  • Trump being a tad crass with enemies is the norm & not a shock
  • Many of these same people are still cheering Charlie Kirk’s murder

But for me the real question is this: If somebody spent the last ten years calling you a Nazi & trying to get you jailed would you be able to be gracious at the moment of their death?

Cue Jim Hacker:

One of the things that has become clear to me in the last year has been how much the steal of election 2020 has paid huge dividends for the nation in a completely unexpected way.

If the steal had been foiled everything from USAID funding to the fraud in Minnesota would likely never have been exposed. VP Mike Pence of the deep state would have steered the country to protect such folks & a lot of what has been going on for decades would have remained under the radar.

Instead Trump has spent the first year of his return not only actively working for the country but exposing evils that have been ignored and tolerated for decades.

This not only is “The Lord works in mysterious ways” squared but affirms what I consider the actual definition of faith in God which is:

Trusting that God knows what he's doing even if he hasn't told you

Finally the inflation numbers where “unexpectedly” excellent showing signs of an improving economy but to me the real sign of that was yesterday at work were I found myself on loan from my normal Inventory Control Duties to a client who had a burst in sales six days from Christmas keeping me on my feet for 8 hours.

One year ago all our “peak” temps were gone by Cyber Monday lasting only 4 days after black Friday.

Yesterday it has been 22 days since Black Friday and a good chunk of our temps were still at work.

I doubt I will see them on Monday as even a Trump economy can’t change the laws of physics & cause packages shipped on the 22nd to reach destinations around the country by the 24th but the fact they are still here (and the suggestion that a few will be kept on to deal with the returns season) tells me the economy is about to hit the accellerator.

If it does I suspect it will have the same effect on election 2026 as the fall of Atlanta did on the election of 1864

2025: The Hal Chase Election

Posted: November 5, 2025 by datechguy in baseball, elections, elections, politics
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“First we must cross the river,” Benito was saying.  “Do you believe me now when I tell you that you must not attempt to swim it, or even get wet from it, or must you try that too?”

“What happens if I just dive in?”

“Then you will be as you were in the bottle.  Aware and unable to move.  but it will be very cold, and very uncomfortable, and you will be there for all eternity knowing that you put yourself there.”

Larry Niven & Jerry Pournelle Inferno 1976

Looking at the results of last nights elections in VA & NJ and particularly NYC two truths are apparent.

The first was expressed at Instapundit last night from Stacy Campfield a former state rep from Tennessee:

“Republicans can’t be surprised that they aren’t winning races in places that they are also leaving in droves.”

Before I list the 2nd and more important quote you need some background:

The quote comes from the SABR site, a baseball analytics group which reprinted a piece about first baseman Hal Chase by Jacob Pomrenke about Hal Chase, a first baseman who played from 1905 to 1919.

Chase was universally considered the best defensive first baseman anyone to that time had ever seen. Both Babe Ruth and Walter Johnson named him the best first baseman of all time.

But Chase was also known from the very start of his career as a man who fixed games. For years in every city where he played allegations had been out there that he threw games or arranged them to be thrown. Allegations that he loudly denied. Then in 1916 he joined the Cincinnati Reds managed by Christy Matterson the great pitcher considered one of the gentleman of baseball. A man so honest that umpires would consult him on close calls. Matterson suspended Chase for trying to bribe players to fix games, as Pomrenke noted:

The suspension by Mathewson was the first time any baseball official had seriously punished Chase for his transgressions. As usual, it didn’t stick. NL president John Heydler reluctantly exonerated Chase after Mathewson joined the military and could not testify against Chase while serving overseas.

Chase would go on to have a part in the fixing of the 1919 World Series. When He heard about this Mathewson said the quote I find relevant to this election:

 “Damn them, [baseball officials] deserve it. They whitewashed two players after I caught them with the goods.” 

The swearing was VERY out of character for Christy Mathewson but he was pissed.

And that brings us to the night after the 2025 elections in California, Virginia, New Jersey and New York:

In California I didn’t expect better after all this is the man the state keeps backing:

In New Jersey the Democrat running for Governor was involved in a scandal concerning her time at the Navel Academy. It didn’t matter, the state that Trump lost by only 5 points elected her by 13 points.

In Virginia not only did Abagail (duck and run) Springer win by double digits but the man made famous for wanting GOP kids dead won by over six points.

But the real thing is New York City:

You have a open socialist, an open communist, an open antisemite. A person whose opinion on all these things have been well documents and are even available in his own words online for years. A rich kid who never did or ran anything in his life and he not only won the election in NYC but he took over 50% of the vote in a three way race.

What’s the bottom line? Just this: In all of these elections particularly in NYC people in their respective states KNEW who and what these people were and what they supported and STILL not only voted for them, but voted for them overwhelmingly winning margins, with apologies to Sarah Hoyt, well beyond the margin of fraud.

Now it’s very possible that this might hurt the Democrats nationally in states where people have not gone insane as Scott Jennings notes:

I think we’re at the point where we have to stop pretending that Democrat voters don’t understand what Communism is, or antisemitism is or violence is or corruption is. I think we have to stop pretending that they are being decieved.

This is what the Democrat/left is. This is what they believe in and what they support this is the government that they want and by golly they’re going to get the government they deserve.

The only question left in my mind is will they be surprised when they get it?

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