Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

By Christopher Harper

The great migration from high-tax states to low or no-tax states continues virtually unabated, with the prospect of nearly a dozen House seats moving from places like California to Texas and Florida.

The U.S. Census reported recently that the U.S. population increased by 1.6 million between July 2022 and July 2023, with states in the South accounting for about 1.4 million of the growth. Leading the boom were Texas (473,453), Florida (365,205), Georgia (116,077), South Carolina (90,600), and Tennessee (77,512). 

Driving their growth was migration from other states. Overall, California lost the most residents to other states (-338,371), followed by New York (-216,778), Illinois (-83,839), New Jersey (-44,666), Massachusetts (-39,149), and Maryland (-30,905).

An interesting natural experiment has been the state of Washington, which gained tens of thousands of people each year in the last decade. But since enacting a 7% capital-gains tax on higher earners in 2021, Washington has been losing residents to other states at an accelerating pace—a total of 15,276 this past year.

A significant problem for Democratic-run states is that their affluent residents are leading the exodus., resulting, for example, in the drop of California’s tax revenue over the last five months to $24.5 billion below projections. Also, California’s corporate tax revenue is running about 50% below forecast, no doubt partly because businesses have shrunk their operations in the state. 

As a result, The Wall Street Journal estimates that California, New York, Illinois, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Oregon would lose a combined 12 House seats in the 2030 reapportionment, which is as many as Florida, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, Utah, and Idaho would collectively gain.

But the migration may not mean more Republicans get elected.

For example, retired California public employees are flocking to Idaho with their pension funds and have gained control of at least one town near Boise. The Los Angeles Times reported recently that the city of Eagle, Idaho, has seen an influx of retired cops and firefighters moving to their town, with many identifying as conservative but having rankled longtime conservatives in the locale. 

In Colorado, a recent documentary, “Rocky Mountain Heist,” focuses on how the state transitioned from red to blue, mainly because of the influx of outsiders from California and other liberal locales. 

When my wife and I decided to move from Philadelphia, we considered Idaho, where I was born and got my first newspaper job. Alas, the concerns of those in Eagle were the same as when we saw the results of recent elections. 

I spent my early years in Denver and still have a strong feeling toward the place. Again, however, the times have indeed changed for Colorado!

Even though migration may seem a good development, it’s essential to determine whether the people moving into conservative states share the same principles for effective government.