By Christopher Harper
Unlike the media’s ‘experts, ‘ I am in a state of uncertainty, unable to predict how Trump’s conviction in New York will affect the November elections.
The only negative influence on Trump would be if he were sent to prison. That would eliminate his ability to use his effective campaign style to convince voters of his ability to handle the job.
Already, some polls state that conviction will play a limited role in the presidential outcome. But, of course, these are polls months before the actual vote and, therefore, are meaningless.
As one sage told me many years ago: “The only poll that counts is what happens when people go to the ballot box.”
What I do know is that the election will be decided on a variety of issues: the economy, immigration, abortion, and the apparent weakness of the United States in international matters, such as Afghanistan, Israel, and Ukraine.
The issue will fall flat if the Biden campaign focuses on Trump’s conviction.
Moreover, the election’s outcome will be heavily influenced by the usual key states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and a few others. The sway of local issues and the uncertainty surrounding Robert Kennedy’s third-party candidacy could potentially tip the scales in favor of either Biden or Trump.
It’s challenging to gauge Kennedy’s strength other than as a protest vote against the major parties. Only George Wallace and Ross Perot made significant inroads in the presidential election.
The media will continue to focus on Trump’s conviction and the faults they see in his personality. However, the media’s influence in presidential elections has declined significantly in the past decade.
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