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Hamas Ghastly Dead Jew Math & a Suggestion to Israel

Posted: October 28, 2023 by datechguy in Uncategorized

if the same battle were to be fought over again, every day, through a week of days, with the same relative results, the army under Lee would be wiped out to its last man, while the Army of the Potomac would still be a mighty host. The war would be over. The Confederacy gone.

Lincoln reflecting on the Gigantic Union defeat at Battle of Fredericksburg

During the American Civil War one of the things that Abraham Lincoln understood before anything else that the primary objective of the Union Army was the defeat and destruction of the Confederate Army (particularly the army of Northern Virginia commanded by Robert E. Lee). He understood that however grand Lee and his subordinates from Longstreet to AP Hill to Jackson were in the end the math was in his favor.

Eventually he found US Grant to command in the east who instead of retreating after defeats like the Wilderness kept attacking. Grant’s Army was bleed badly but Lee’s was bleed drive to the point where he was besieged and while it might resist a flanking movement or two against them, was no longer a threat to do anything but slowly starve.

And that brings us to Hamas and the reality, and the math of the situation.

The reality is that the Hamas and their supporters don’t care about a Palestinian state, They could have had one for the last quarter century if they wanted one but have already declined.

Furthermore they are not interested in people who target Muslims. In China and elsewhere Muslims have been targeted and slaughtered without a peep from any of them, largely because with the exception of China the people targeting Muslims for slaughter have been other Muslims.

What they are interested in are dead Jews and the attack on Israel was all about producing dead Jews which is why women and children are a preferred target as they are:

  • Easier to kill
  • Less likely to shoot back
  • Either are or produce the next generation of Jews

The academic left not withstanding Hamas understands that every dead Israeli women means fewer Jews in the future which makes it easier to kill Jews.

But Hamas understands one thing even better more and that’s the ghastly math that is in their favor.

Israel has a population of about 11 million with about 7 1/2 million of them Jews. Let’s compare that to the population of the countries bordering them:

  • Population of Egypt: 110 Million
  • Population of Jordan: 11 million
  • Population of Lebanon 5 Million
  • Population of Syria: 20 Million (estimated: It was 21 mil at the start of the Civil war two years ago)

and finally let’s add Gaza

  • Population of Gaza 2 million

That adds up to 148 million people surrounding Israel’s 11 million. I suspect practically none of those 148 million would shed a tear if Israel disappeared tomorrow. A ratio of more than 10 to 1 and remember we’re only counting lands adjacent to Israel, we aren’t counting Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Yemen, Morocco, Libya or any other Arab state nearby that would cheer the destruction of Israel from afar.

The math is rather simple and can be illustrated by the results of the six day war.

The six day war was one of the most decisive victories in the history of history. Alone Israel defeated 3 foes (four if you count Iraq) so decisively that diplomats rushed to restrain them before they could reach Damascus or go beyond the Jordan river to the east or beyond the Suez canal. It was one of the most humiliating defeats the Arab world ever saw.

But examine the causalities:

According to Wikipedia the arab casualties were as follows (taking the high numbers of the range):

  • Egypt 15,000 killed or missing 4338 captured 19338 causalities
  • Jordan 700 killed, 2500 wounded, 533 captured 3733 casualties
  • Syria 2500 killed 591 captured 3091 causalities
  • Iraq 10 killed 30 wounded 40 causalities

That comes to 18210 killed or missing, 2530 wounded and 5462 captured for a total of 26,202 casualties

Now lets take a look at Israel’s causalities and this time take the low number of the ranges given:

Israel 776 killed, 4517 wounded , 15 captured. that comes to 5308 casualties. It’s a five to one ratio which on the battle field is a ratio of epic proportions a disaster.

However the reality is that the population of the Arabs states that border Israel isn’t 5-1 it’s 13 to 1.

Put simply the Arab world if it was willing could lose a six day war every six days for a year with the same casualty ratio as the original and it wouldn’t make as huge a dent in their population as it would on Israel.

Israel has already suffered 2000 + causalities before any invasion of Gaza. That means that if unless Hamas causalities are in the tens of thousands they are already ahead in terns if the math.

I suspect that is their primary goal, to get the rest of the Arab world to a state where they are willing to fight and die for their cause even at a causality rate of 5-1 in Israel’s favor.

That however is where the Hamas math plan tends to fall apart. I suspect that the Arab states aren’t all that anxious to have their infrastructure destroyed and all those breathless protestors who are shouting in the safety of western capitals are unlikely to decide to come to Gaza to fight but that’s what the folks on the Hamas home team are shooting for.

I suspect the next few weeks of the war will not work well toward that goal.

As for Israel? How would I counter this? Three things.

  1. Keep doing what you’re doing. The slow systematic destruction of Hamas is the best way to keep the other Arab states from succumbing to any pressure to jump in.
  2. Create a series of front company offering to send any willing militant protestors in the west to Gaza to fight. This will not only allow you to weed out the most dangerous of those folks in the west who might threaten Jews there but will be a great disincentive for those who continue to march. I suspect it wouldn’t take too many of them being blown up to change the minds of the idle rich looking to virtue signal.
  3. Adopt the “proportional response” language of the left when asked about causalities. Based on the figures above any number of Hamas causalities below 26,000 will still be at a “proportional rate” to the local anti-Israel Arab populations and of course that number will rise depending on the number of Israeli causalities suffered in the action and you could even include all those loud marching mobs in the base figure and still claim “proportionality”.

Yael Bar tur: Analysis True

Posted: October 27, 2023 by datechguy in middle east
Tags: ,

It’s a Pretty long list but this tweet says it all:

Here is the full list:

  • If you advocate for an “Intifada”, which means a violent uprising against the Jews in their homeland – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say Israel is “Occupying Gaza” without knowing that Israel forcefully removed all 9,000 of its residents from Gaza in 2005, and since then the only Jews living in Gaza have been 229 hostages that Hamas kidnapped – you’re an antisemite
  • If you chant from the “River to the Sea”, meaning the elimination of the sovereign state of Israel and home to its 9 million residents – you’re an antisemite
  • If you think indiscriminate violence against civilians by a bloodthirsty mob is a form of “resistance” – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say there is “ethnic cleansing” without understanding that Israel does everything to minimize civilian casualties including pleading with the local population to evacuate before an attack – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say there is “genocide” without saying that if Hamas lay down it’s weapons today there would be peace, but if Israel does the same it will be eliminated – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say “Free Palestine” without acknowledging the Palestinians refusal to in fact “free Palestine” themselves by signing all the offers Israel offered it over the years asking for only peace in return – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say Israel is a “white supremacist” country despite more than half of Israeli jews being from Arab and north African countries – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say Israel is a “settler colonialist” state, despite Jews being indigenous to the land and Israel being a sovereign country for 75 years – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say indiscriminate violence against civilians by a bloodthirsty mob is a form of resistance – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you call Israel an Apartheid country without acknowledging that Arab-Israelis have equal rights and freedom of religion in Israel, and are freer here than in any other Mid East country – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you refuse to acknowledge the worst massacre of Jews since the Holocaust and instead call it “the situation” or “the tensions in the Middle East” – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say you oppose Israel because you stand with Muslims, but never made a peep about hundreds of thousands killed in Yemen, Syria, Sudan, Iran etc. – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say you stand with Palestinians, but don’t demand rights for Palestinians in Syria and Lebanon where they have none — you’re an antisemite.
  • If you refuse to believe the IDF, but think Hamas is a legitimate source of information – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you believe everything Hamas says, except their charter where they say they want to kill all Jews – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say murdering 1,400 men, women and children and kidnapping 229 is a response to Netanyahu being “right wing” – you’re an antisemite.
  • If your response to a massacre is to call for a “ceasefire” instead of the immediate release of the hostages and dismantlement of the perpetrators – you may not be an antisemite, but you’re really dumb.
  • If you say Israel attacks indiscriminately, and not in precise airstrikes against Hamas targets that happen to be purposly placed in schools, hospitals, and mosques – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say Israel attacks just to “punish” Palestinians, and not in order to prevent more harm to Israelis from stockpiled weapons and terrorists – you’re an antisemite.
  • If the only Israeli perspective you are willing to listen to are a few fringe Israeli academics or artists who hate their country – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say you “stand firmly” against antisemitism when the perptrator is someone from across the political divide, but mix words over Palestinians massacring Jews in Israel – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say you oppose “victim blaming” but feel the need to put horrors of October 7th “in context” whenever they are mentioned – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you’ve ever said “believe all women” but demand to see autopsies before believing women were raped in front of their friends’ eyes – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you’ve ever proudly declared that “hate has no home here” but don’t speak up against harassment of your Jewish friends– you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say you support indigenous people yet don’t care that Jews have had a steady presence in the land of Israel for thousands of years – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say you’re an LGBTQ+ ally…I can’t even do this one, it’s too stupid.
  • If you’re more concerned with exactly how many babies were beheaded instead of why the babies lost their heads – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say people are brainwashed by watching Fox News, but that Palestinians who are fed a steady diet of Jihad-glorification and Jew-hatred in their textbooks and children’s shows are freethinking freedom fighters – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say Gaza was “stolen” from a country called “Palestine” and not won in battle against Egypt, who controlled Gaza until 1967 when they tried to destroy Israel – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say Arab terrorism against Jews is solely a response to settlements, meaning it only began in 1967 when Israel won a war against Jordan (West Bank) and Egypt (Gaza) after they tried to destroy Israel – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say there was a sovereign country called “Palestine” with a president and a flag before 1948 instead of the British Mandate of Palestine – you’re an antisemite (and also ignorant).
  • If you say poor living conditions and lack of food in Gaza are the fault of Israel and don’t mention Hamas spends billions of foreign aid dollars on weapons I you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say Israel cuts off electricity to Gaza, without acknowledging that Israel itself provides the electricity in the first place, and that Hamas repurposes virtually all the electricity and fuel for terrorism – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you blame Israel for Gaza running out water, but not Hamas who ruins the water infastructure and takes the water pipes and repurposes them as rocket launchers – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you compare the bloodlust of Hamas, an elected government that controls Gaza, to a few fringe extremists who exist in Israel like they do in every society – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you are afraid to call out Hamas terrorism because you think it’s offensive to Muslims – you’re an antisemite, and also racist.
  • If you don’t call out Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza through which they could send relief and take all the refugees, but refuse to – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you call to “end the blockade” without acknowledging that the blockade is only on 2nd use materials, and is a response to the smuggling of weapons aimed at Israel into Gaza – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you compare death tolls like they’re basketball scores without acknowledging that Hamas is the source, and that they use their own people as human shields, preventing them from leaving dangerous areas despite the IDF warning them to – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say you worry about Palestinian refugees but not about tens of thousands of Israeli refugees from the north and south who have had to evacuate their homes because of Hamas & Hezbollah – you’re an antisemite.
  • If you say you’re not an antisemite but merely an antizionist, meaning you oppose the mere existence of a safe haven for the Jews in their ancestral homeland alongside it’s neighbors – well, you get the idea.

Frankly for a lot of the college student’s it’s all about the religion of leftism their colleges have pumped in them once our enemies figured it was easier to buy college administrators and professors than weapons systems. They don’t go obsolete as quickly

Five Speaker Mike Johnson Thoughts Under the Fedora: Watching the Vote, Left vs Normalcy, Petard Hoist, Speculation and a Joke

Posted: October 26, 2023 by datechguy in congress
Tags: ,

I was watching the vote for Speaker Yesterday Afternoon and while the various demonstrations made me nostalgic for the days when there were not camera for people to ham in front of in the house it became rather clear that this vote was different as we got to the “C”‘s and the “D”‘s and all the votes were either for Dem leader Jeffries or Johnson.

Given the events of two weeks ago it seemed we were destined for drama for weeks but the vote for Mr. Johnson was so routine and so, well NORMAL that it actually lent excitement to an event that has been the norm for decades.

As soon as the vote ended it was the turn of the Democrat majority leader Jeffries to speak. His so called “bipartisan” message turned out to be yet another concerted attack, which is not to be unexpected from the left but the real surprise was the speech by Johnson. He thanked the clerks and the workers who had jumped through all the hoops on all the votes, promised to listen to the opinions of the other side even as they disagree, and sounded, well, NORMAL.

This man might be the most normal person who has gained power in DC in my lifetime. I think it’s a very good sign.

Apparently there are a bunch of stories from the left attacking Johnson as some kind of extremist for but I would remind the left that the only reason why they have to deal with Johnson is they aided the 8 GOP firebrands who decided to kick McCarthy out.

If they had held off as they had promised they would be in a much better position now but that would require restraint which is not their forte.

Of course all of this stuff is a first impression. We still need to see if he can get appropriations bills passed, aid to Israel passed, audit the Ukraine funds and most importantly get enough of the deep state GOP members and the pro maga members to vote as one to accomplish what they need to do.

I have a good feeling about his chances but it’s just a feeling.

Finally the most fun part about all of this is the fact that if you went up to Speaker Johnson a month ago and told him that before the month of October was done he would be Speaker of the US House of Representatives he would likely have laughed it off as a joke.

It would be really funny to find out 30 years from now that some Mafioso put a $10,000 bet on 9/1/23 that Johnson becoming speaker by Halloween. At 50,000-1 which would have been fair odds at the time he would have made half a billion dollars.

This is of course a joke but after what we’ve seen the last 3 years anything is possible

I suggest a backward House Vote

Posted: October 25, 2023 by datechguy in congress
Tags: , ,

It’s now been nearly a month since the dogs caught the car and they still haven’t figured out what to do with it.

Since it only takes six house GOP members to keep a speaker off the chair both the ultra MAGAs and the NEVERTRUMP wings of the party have the ability to reject any candidate that doesn’t reach their purity levels.

And the Democrats of course who suckered the GOP by voting with the six as all kinds of house business isn’t getting done are having a grand old time over it.

The cycle is pretty straightforward.

  1. An internal vote takes place to see who is the preferred candidate
  2. Members who voted for a different candidate highlight positions unacceptable to their group
  3. Candidate either drops out or loses floor vote.
  4. Go to #1

Given the inability to vote in a house speaker among the members I’d suggest voting in Gingrich if we has willing to do it and if the house would have him with the understanding that if the House can get 218 GOP votes for someone else he would step aside but if the plan is to vote in a current member of the house then we need a different tack.

Here is what I propose:

  1. Each GOP house member is given a list of the entire GOP house caucus
  2. Each member crosses out any name that is unacceptable as speaker of the house
  3. The ballots are checked to see if any house member failed to be crossed out on six lists or less that person is put up for speaker. If somehow there are more than one then the person crossed off the fewest list is the primary candidate
  4. If there is not a house member who has been removed from six lists then a person outside the house should be nominated for speaker.

This plan has the virtue of at least establishing if the GOP can elect a speaker from among their members.

Let’s find out if there is at least one house member not despised enough who can be advanced if not the I suggest Gingrich, if not him then find a GOP candidate among the state legislatures or perhaps a retired judge.

I’d be willing to do it for 3 million but not a penny less. I don’t need the grief.

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