Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

Let’s see, removing a tyrant dictator with bloodthirsty sons who controls a lot of oil and has been killing his people for years.

Yup that sounds like Iraq to me.

Can someone explain to me how Morning Joe is going on about that “we might be too late” while advocating an Afghan pullout?

I hope it works, but I think Gaddafi takes Benghazi before a single plane makes it in the air unless Egypt invades first.

Update: Boy I think I’ve never been proven wrong so fast:

Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa says Libya is declaring an immediate cease-fire and stopping all military operations.

Friday’s decision comes after the U.N. voted to authorized a no-fly zone and “all necessary measures” to protect the Libyan people, including airstrikes.

Koussa says the cease-fire “will take the country back to safety” and ensure security for all Libyans.

I actually didn’t think that Gaddafi was this smart. By calling a ceasefire he gets the chance to consolidate the gains he has made. He takes away the ability of NATO and the west to strike. As long as they are not attacking they will have a hard time justifying bombing.

This will also force the rebels in Benghazi to actually form a government and act like one. How they act and what they do will also be instructive.

Additionally Gaddafi is an old man, if this goes into a long diplomatic negotiation he will be able to string things along for at the very least months, and perhaps years. The end result? Either a partition or a face saving resignation and transfer of power to his sons.

This may or may not work out, but the solution will not be a quick one.

Update 2: Ed Morrissey comments

Imagine if the UN had been pressed into action two or three weeks ago. Rebels would still hold a large portion of Libya, and Gaddafi’s military would be forced to make a choice between an aging tyrant rapidly losing leverage and a populace clearly ready to seize its own destiny. Even a week ago, rebels still held key positions and Gaddafi was having trouble mounting any large-scale offensives.

Now Gaddafi can afford to offer a cease-fire. It protects his air force while changing very little on the ground. He has the main rebellion cut off in Benghazi and has secured his control over the other rebellious areas. He can afford to wait out the rebels and lay siege to Libya’s second-largest city, secure in the knowledge that the West won’t further intervene. It took them this long to arrange the no-fly zone, and Gaddafi knows that the West has no interest in another ground war in the region (and for good reasons).