Archive for the ‘war’ Category

The biggest winners in Libya: Iran and North Korea

Posted: March 17, 2011 by datechguy in middle east, opinion/news, war
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On Way too Early Mike Barnicle reported that the UN security counsel is getting ready to vote on a no-fly zone in Libya. The AP report via AOL (or is it Arianna?) that suddenly the US is willing to support it:

the United States, in a striking reversal, pushed for broader action to protect civilians from ground and sea attacks as well.

U.S. Ambassador Susan Rice said the Obama administration is “fully focused on the urgency and the gravity of the situation on the ground,” where Gadhafi’s fighters are intensifying attacks and heading toward rebel-held Bengazi, Libya’s second-largest city, and is working “very hard” for a vote on Thursday.

“We are interested in a broad range of actions that will effectively protect civilians and increase the pressure on the Gadhafi regime to halt the killing and to allow the Libyan people to express themselves in their aspirations for the future freely and peacefully,”

Of course assuming there is no Russian or Chinese veto any such action is going to be too late as Allahpundit puts it:

His dirtbag “reformer” son, Seif, promised earlier today that it’ll all be over within 48 hours, which doesn’t seem unrealistic given the pace of recent advances. I’m sure the UN hopes it’s true: They’ve been waiting patiently for Qaddafi to finish off the rebels for weeks now so that they don’t have to act. Any further delay would be a bit, well, embarrassing.

I think they will not have to worry about such embarrassment. The vote in my opinion is not for the sake of protecting Libyans, it is for the sake of saying they “did something” for domestic use. Meanwhile at least one Italian company is not even trying to pretend where they stand:

Italy’s Eni (ENI.MI) called on Europe to abandon sanctions against Libya, becoming the first Western firm to try to rebuild bridges as Muammar Gaddafi is regaining control and may reopen the oil taps.

They can see the writing on the wall

Libyan rebels battled to hold a strategic eastern city against a punishing offensive by forces loyal to Moammar Gadhafi, voicing anger and frustration at the West for not coming to their aid. At the same time, government troops heavily shelled the last main rebel bastion near the capital.

Charred vehicles, bullet-riddled pickup trucks and an overturned tank littered the desert highway where pro-Gadhafi forces had fought up to the entrance of the key eastern city of Ajdabiya. An Associated Press Television News cameraman counted at least three bodies by the side of the road, evidence of fierce battles.

Government troops were bringing in a stream of truckloads of ammunition, rockets and supplies — signs of an intensified effort by the Libyan leader to retake control of the country he has ruled with an iron fist for more than four decades.

And I wonder what all those diplomats who defected at the start when government started to back the rebels are now thinking?

All the arguments against intervention, no US interests, overextended, going to war, let Nato do it, the rebels are not good guys, we will get no gratitude for it etc etc etc… are valid, and if we had said at the outset: “The US believes that the future of Libya should be decided by Libyan people, not by US force.” and left it at that, it would be one thing. Instead our president said that Gaddafi “lost legitimacy” (did he ever have it?) said he must go, claimed there was a tightening noose around him, and then didn’t even start to act until the fight so far gone that it can’t be reversed without a full scale invasion. (Good luck getting support for that).

Personally my thought is that Gaddafi is an enemy, who is directly responsible for American deaths and if we had a chance to take him out we should have done so, if logistically possible. If it was not possible then we should have spoken the “not by US force” line and while doing what we could quietly behind the scenes.

The most significant part of it: It’s all of this is happening in front of our faces this time. Because of the rebel advances and the media rushing in we were actually able to see what people thought of an anti-west dictator independent of what those on the left had to say about “American Imperialism” or those paid to prop him up. (hello monitor group). The mask is off.

The result? It will be the same as the effect of Hal Chases acquittal on fixing games a year before he helped the White Sox throw the 1919 series as Bill James put it :

He was free, then. It had all been brought out into the open , and he had gotten by with it. This seems to have had a liberating effect of Chase’s activities…

Once Gaddafi takes Benghazi there will be a slaughter. There will be nothing and nobody to stop it and we will express regret that we were not able to act in time and vow that it won’t happen again. This should not be a surprise, as I wrote concerning Sudan in June of 2009 concerning Iran and Sudan:

This is why Obama can watch people slaughtered and invite the killers to parties, this is why Clinton can let Rwanda happen and then not be critiqued when he beats his breast in regret.

Our reaction to this is a national disgrace.

It is also why the left will always hate president Bush. 9/11 may have been the impetus but in the end in at least one place in the world the mass graves were stopped and he was responsible and still doesn’t apologize for it.

We are going say little and do less while these people are slaughtered. It’s what we are doing with Sudan and it is what we will do the next time and the time after that. This might seem odd but it’s not about saving slaughtered people; it’s about being able to say you care and convince others you care while doing nothing.

Lots of people are going to be beating their breasts and saying how they meant well but believe me Iran and North Korea are watching. They will recognize that we had the best chance ever to remove an actual enemy, a person directly responsible for killing Americans, a person for whom there was popular support to do so and we choose not to.

How hollow are any warnings concerning Nuclear Proliferation going to be from this point on? How willing will people considering a popular uprising move knowing there is not cost if the dictators choose to kill any who oppose them? How much will And when these foes consider how to aggressively supply those who would LOVE to hit us either at home or abroad do you think they are going to listen to any warning we give? It’s going to mean that when they act we will have to pay a much higher price to stop them.

And there is another consideration, how likely is the president in an attempt to look tougher going to overreact in a different situation just to show that he is the alpha male? As Michael Ledeen said about Carter:

At about this stage in the Carter years, I began to worry: the president was getting a reputation for being a wimp, the economy was going to hell, and his poll numbers were headed steadily south. The main enemy — the Soviet Union — was flexing its muscles, invading Afghanistan in December of 1979. This came amidst the Iranian hostage crisis, which began early the previous month.

We tend to forget that the U.S. military buildup, which ultimately played a big role in the successful outcome of the Cold War, was started by Carter in response to the Soviet move, I must confess I didn’t know that myself DTG but by the time it started, “the wimp” could not hope to recover his lost manhood by sending money to the Pentagon.

And so I asked myself, is there a point at which a president realizes that wimps don’t get reelected? And if so, what might he do to shatter that image? For the next two years I worried that Carter might overreact to some international crisis in order to make folks see that he was really a tough guy.

This is a real reason to worry and we’ll keep an eye on it, but this simply proves Teddy Roosevelt right when he said: “Speak softly and carry a Big Stick.” and Sarah Palin (who called for a no fly zone weeks ago when it would have worked) who said: “2012 can’t come fast enough.”

Update: Oh brother, talk about doublespeak. Via Josh Trevino on Twitter.

Update 2: Serious mulling going on.

We need to “be prepared to contemplate” action beyond an NFZ? Literally speaking, Rice isn’t even asking to contemplate action, but to prepare ourselves to contemplate action. If it took the US exactly a month into the uprising — and five days after the Arab League unanimously requested a no-fly zone over Libya — to merely think about preparing for contemplation of action, what exactly will be the timeline for making an actual decision?

Likely sometime after the start the polls support it.

Update 3: Related: It’s not just Libya: Where are the Americans?

Update 4: How bad is it? This bad:

“Obviously, she’s not happy with dealing with a president who can’t decide if today is Tuesday or Wednesday, who can’t make his mind up,” a Clinton insider told The Daily. “She’s exhausted, tired.”

He went on, “If you take a look at what’s on her plate as compared with what’s on the plates of previous Secretary of States — there’s more going on now at this particular moment, and it’s like playing sports with a bunch of amateurs. And she doesn’t have any power. She’s trying to do what she can to keep things from imploding.”

I never thought I’d see the say when I felt bad for Mrs. Clinton.

One question for the Arab League…

Posted: March 13, 2011 by datechguy in opinion/news, war
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…if you want a no fly zone in Libya, is there anything stopping you from using your own jets to make one?

Just asking.

Update: Bruce at Maggie’s Farm agrees.

What is a military for?

Posted: March 8, 2011 by datechguy in culture, war
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Apparently its primary purpose is to make a social statement:

The U.S. military is too white and too male at the top and needs to change recruiting and promotion policies and lift its ban on women in combat, an independent report for Congress said Monday.

Seventy-seven percent of senior officers in the active-duty military are white, while only 8 percent are black, 5 percent are Hispanic and 16 percent are women, the report by an independent panel said, quoting data from September 2008.

One barrier that keeps women from the highest ranks is their inability to serve in combat units. Promotion and job opportunities have favored those with battlefield leadership credentials.

The report ordered by Congress in 2009 calls for greater diversity in the military’s leadership so it will better reflect the racial, ethnic and gender mix in the armed forces and in American society.

Let me point out something very simple. The purpose of the military is not to reflect the racial, ethnic and gender mix of the country. The job of the military is to:

  • Fight and deter the enemies of the united states
  • Defend our allies and to deter those who would threaten them.
  • Protect American interest and citizens.

As long as we are able to do this, I don’t care if our military is composed of three-legged aliens who all answer to the name “Harold”. I’ll let others argue the specifics, the bottom line is promotion and leadership should be based on whatever helps the military achieve those goals I listed, that it!

The moment we do otherwise we lose the best military in the world, and believe me the rest of the world and our enemies are watching.

Without intervention Gaddafi wins

Posted: March 5, 2011 by datechguy in middle east, opinion/news, war
Tags: , , , ,

During today’s show in the 2nd hour we talked about Libya and the prospect of Gaddafi. Unlike last week when the question was: “Will Gaddafi still be there next week?” This weeks question was: “At the end of the month where are we, civil war still on, rebels win or Gaddafi wins?

The general consensus was that the war continues. I however maintain that unless the international community acts by the end of the month Gaddafi will have won the war. In a two-hour show with other topics to deal with its harder to explain in detail, but here are my reasons:

1. There are dictators and there are dictators:

A lot of people made the mistake seeing that because Egypt fell without excessive bloodshed Libya would as well. They made the mistake of confusing an American Ally with troops trained by Americans and supplied by Americans with a lone wolf who is opposed to America. Mubarek was in fact a dictator but because of American training and American influence there were lines that he and his troops would not cross. Gaddafi is a wholly independent dictator. The only influence we had was his fear of George Bush which removed his WMD’s from the picture years ago. Anyone who thought Gaddafi was unwilling to kill his own people hasn’t followed Gaddafi.

2. Money talks:

Libya has been awash in petro dollars for decades and Gaddafi has invested it wisely, in terms of staying in power. Weapons, ammo and mercenaries are bought and paid. Additionally thanks to the use of millions of dollars spread around the international and academic community, professors who found it easy to critique the US found it even easier to make excuses for Gaddafi.

3. Realpolitik:

The international community has known for decades what Gaddafi is and what he does, why then the sudden desire to have him removed and the condemnation that have been ringing out? Well reason #1 is they believed he was on the way out and wanted to be sure to be on the winning side (they didn’t pay attention to item #1) but now that the winning side is not clear-cut you are hearing an awful lot of talk but very little action this is right out of Yes Minister

Part of the exchange ties down exactly what I think is going to happen:

Bernard: “What are we going to do to help them?”

Dick: “Nothing,”

Bernard: “But what if St. Georges appeals to us?”

Dick: “Then we give them every support, short of help.”

and this earlier part of the exchange explains why:

Sir Humphrey: “…facts complicate things, all that the press, the people and their elected leaders want to know is who are the goodies and who are the baddies”

Dick: “The problem is the interests of Britain nearly always involve doing deals with people the public think are the baddies…”

Sir Humphrey: “and not helping the goodies occasionally when it doesn’t help us.”

As it has become apparent that the rebels will not win an easy victory we can count on the international community to stall until they figure out who will win, then take that side.

4. The apology tour redux:

One of the side effects of the American apology tour is the determination that the US is going to stay out of the way. This more than anything else was the basis of the Nobel Peace Price for President Obama. President Bush’s push for democracy put an awful lot of people in a spot where they had to take positions on things they would rather not. The prize for President Obama was for not putting people in that awkward spot. Combine this with the president Obama’s political background (his allies are charter members of the blame America first school that considers any American military intervention as a sign of imperialism) and any kind of intervention becomes awkward. We will undoubtedly hear the “right” words from the president but it is unlikely that it will be more than that. The only possible exception is if he starts paying an excessive political price for inaction. The person here to watch is Sarah Palin. If she makes pronouncements concerning the rights and the protection of the Libyan people and they catch on, watch the White House react so the president doesn’t appear to be less of a leader than the former governor who is supposed to be not a serious political threat.

5. If you come for one of us, you come for all of us:

As the US has moved into the background, China and other nations have moved forward. China has already taken steps to make sure the Jasmine Revolution doesn’t take off of the ground. Hugo Chavez is backing Gaddafi and Iran is making noises about interference. All of these nations are dictatorships and either produce oil, control access to oil or have huge economic clout. It is in their interest for any kind of revolutionary spirit to be stopped. When it was Egypt they let it go, after all it was an American ally, but with revolts and the idea of democracy spreading the danger becomes to great to them, so presto, their oil and economic clout is used to stall or prevent intervention by the international community. (see #3).

6. Preparing for the worst:

This article from Der Spiegel online shows that Gaddafi has carefully planned ahead for just such an eventuality as this one:

Libya’s air force is made up of roughly 18,000 men and women, most of whom are staunch supporters of the regime. The elite military branch recruited from followers who were 100 percent loyal to the regime, and members of Gadhafi’s Gadhadfa tribe and its closely allied Magariha tribe were given preference during the selection process for recruits. They have shown a blind obedience to their commander in chief. Only a handful of pilots and officers have switched sides to join the opposition.

As for the rebels:

For now, it is also unclear just how many of the 45,000 ground troops have defected to the opposition. The fact that entire regiments have apparently deserted in eastern Libya appears to have been something that Gadhafi correctly anticipated. Gadhafi has never trusted his army, because it was primarily made up of conscripts, many of whom belonged to tribes opposed to his own. “Gadhafi has retained significant elements of the army and lost the elements he was always afraid he could lose, those affiliated with tribes he had targeted,” George Joffé, an expert on North Africa at Cambridge University, told the New York Times.

Bottom line, unless the west is able to resist the pressure or unless he is taken out personally I don’t see how Gaddafi loses this fight, declarations of republics not withstanding.

Update: In case it’s not clear, this is not what I want to happen, this is what I think will happen.

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