The Navy is trending towards Battleship

Posted: September 18, 2021 by ng36b in News/opinion, Uncomfortable Truths
Tags: , , , ,

…and not in a good way

We’re seeing more news on people leaving the military, even when within one or two years of retirement. First it was Marine Corps Lt Col Stuart Scheller. Next it was Army Lt Col Paul Hague. I’m sure over the next two months we’ll get about one of these every two weeks before it dies down. They’ll make the news, people will comment needlessly on Twitter, and then life will go on.

That’s not the real story. The real story is that for every one of these very public resignations, there are thousands that are quietly leaving. These people aren’t willing to throw away a pension if they are close to it. For the ones that are ending their first five year commitment, they are simply preparing now to walk away. They won’t make a big stink about it. They won’t leave five page resignation letters talking about Marxism, transgender policy and imbedded racism. Nope. These people will simply leave. They won’t make a ruckus or create waves, they’ll simply vote with their feet.

The military will cover this up. Not like X-Files “I want to believe” sort of cover up. It’ll just not make headlines. You’ll hear things like “We’re short on fighter pilots” now and again, but nothing earth shattering will make the news. The media that cover military stories focus almost exclusively on operations, because operations is sexy. It’s sexy and cool to interview the Blue Angels and look at drones landing on an aircraft carrier. It’s boring to look at numbers. That stuff is for nerds.

But nerds rule, and the numbers already look bad on the Navy side. The best indicator of what is called “community health” is how well you’re filling control grade officers, specifically the O-4 (LCDR), O-5 (CDR) and O-6 (CAPT) ranks. These are important for a few reasons.

  • Almost all of your commanding officers and executive officers come from these ranks. These officers control the day-to-day operations and they have by far the biggest impact on Sailor morale. If morale is suffering and things are getting done, this is the first place to check.
  • These people are lifers. They’ve stayed past 10 years, so they are “in it” for the long haul. They either love what they do, or at least don’t hate it enough to quit.
  • These ranks have the not-fun jobs. These ranks run the show from the background. The sexy jobs flying fast planes, driving boats and shooting at bad people are now past. That makes these jobs harder to fill.

So how is the Navy doing in this area? Easiest way to check is selection rates. The Navy’s officer manning is a pyramid. There are lots of O-1, O-2 and O-3 young officers at the bottom. The ideal selection rate to O-4 is 70%, meaning that 30% of otherwise qualified people are not selected. That seems brutal, but it allows you to pick the best. It also takes into account people that leave anyway, since O-3s that are eligible for promotion would also be finishing their first 5-year committment.

As we go up the pyramid, it gets harder. Ideal selection to O-5 is only 60% of eligible people, and selection to O-6 is about 50%. You only want the best people in positions of command and responsibility, and there aren’t as many jobs that high up, so you’re naturally going to shed more people. Also, these ranks allow people to stay until retirement, so you’ll have more non-selected officers that fill slots until they retire.

So how are selection rates now? LCDR selection rate is roughly 90%, CDR is 80% and CAPT is around 65%. This varies a lot by community, with some communities significantly higher.

That’s bad. High selection rates mean not enough people are staying in until they are eligible for promotion. In a business environment, you can simply hire people from outside or promote younger people, but the military is only allowed to pick 10% from what they call “below zone” officers, who are typically 1-2 years younger than officers that are “in zone” for selection. Now, you can pick officers that were previously passed over for promotion, and in many cases, these officers are otherwise great selections. But officers that are passed over once are likely planning their exit already. Once they see opportunity elsewhere, many are going to walk away.

Worse still, look at the communities with the highest selection rates. For CAPT, these are Cryptologic Warfare (85%) and Information Professional (70%). For CDR, these are…the same group, and the same for LCDR. Cryptologic Warfare officers make and break codes, specializing in cyber warfare, signals intelligence and electronic warfare. Information Professionals connect and maintain Navy communications. Both groups require significant engineering backgrounds, and yet both groups are leaving in droves. If the people that conduct the most advanced warfare areas are leaving, it means we aren’t providing enough incentives for them to stay around compared to what they can achieve in industry.

This is the canary in the coal mine. The numbers are trending worse, not better. This has been happening for the past three fiscal years. Now, combine this with a job market that is begging people to work, and one that is rapidly adopting the use of advanced technology to replace low-skilled jobs. The first people to leave the Navy, much like the first people to leave the fictional company in Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged, are the engineers and people with technical skills. Others in the chain will take notice, and short of significant business setbacks, people with good skills will bail. Once they have “Gone Galt,” the Navy is going to struggle to find competent leaders.

I used to laugh at movies like “Battleship,” where the only tactics the military seems to use are bum-rush the bad guy with big guns, resembling the often suicidal battle charges from the Civil War. Sadly, that’s what we’re going to get when its not worth it for smart people to stay around.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. All data was publicly available at https://www.mynavyhr.navy.mil/Career-Management/Boards/Active-Duty-Officer/.

Since you read this far, you should buy my book, “To Build A House,” available here on Amazon.

They’ve Thrown It All Away

Posted: September 18, 2021 by datechguy in culture
Tags:

4th Doctor: Count, do you realize what will happen if you try to go back to the time before history began?
Count Scarlioni: Yes. Yes, I do. And I don’t care one jot.

Doctor Who: City of Death 1979

“Future generations, your own descendants who will rise up after you, as well as the foreigners who will come here from far-off lands, when they see the calamities of this land and the ills with which the LORD has smitten it all its soil being nothing but sulphur and salt, a burnt-out waste, unsown and unfruitful, without a blade of grass, destroyed like Sodom and Gomorrah, Admah and Zeboiim, which the LORD overthrew in his furious wrath they and all the nations will ask,

‘Why has the LORD dealt thus with this land? Why this fierce outburst of wrath?’

And the answer will be, ‘Because they forsook the covenant which the LORD, the God of their fathers, had made with them when he brought them out of the land of Egypt, and they went and served other gods and adored them, gods whom they did not know and whom he had not let fall to their lot:

Deuteronomy 29:21-25

One of the things that made America different than many other countries has been its institutions and our trust in them.

Don’t get me wrong, there were plenty of Sir Humphrey bureaucrats, plenty of bad teachers, plenty of shady pols, bad cop and the odd incompetent Doctor but as a whole our institutions were trusted and moreover DESERVED OUR TRUST.

This has always been one of the draws of America to people of other lands, particularly people persecuted for their political beliefs.

That is why our foes spent so much time investing in culture, in schools to pervert what children are taught, in movies and news to shape the messages given to the public and in the net to restrict what is allowable to be posted and said.

Some of us tried to fight against these things but were attacked by the left who were determined to see this through, by our own side because they though it would be too “controversial” and obscure an economic message but most of all by the professional political class who thought such a fight would harm their chances of winning and thus securing generational wealth for them and theirs.

A few people put out the warning. Folks like Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin and to a lesser degree Donald Trump who instead fought the culture war not by pointing out the dangers of the left but of the successes of America and American Culture in a way that had been discouraged everywhere else.

Well that message is now gone, given away by courts unwilling to tackle the steal of an election and what has happened in less than sixty days.

The trust in our institutions is gone. The CDC, the military, the presidency, the press the lot.

Now to be fair the left pushed distrust in the institutions for a while and among but now those of us who defended those institutions has seen those who would use them as a weapon against their political enemies rise to the top It has taken less than twelve months for this to rise to its fullest level.

The biggest of these institutions that have gone for this has been the military.

No other institution in the country had a better reputation, and no wonder, no other military in the history in the world has been used for just and right more than the US military. No other military in the world is more trusted than the US Military and as a rule when the US Military is deployed civilians of whatever country they are deployed to have less to fear than the military of any other (particularly the UN).

More over it was not uncommon for US soldiers at restaurants to find that their tab had been picked up by ordinary citizens not out of fear or intimidation like you might see in a 3rd world tinpot dictatorship but because of the love and respect they enjoyed.

It has taken 240 days for the grifters to take this trust built over 240 years away.

Now the top brass, the ones that were advanced by the Obama administration don’t seem to care. They don’t see the military as an honorable career dedicated to protecting America and Americans but see themselves at the top of a gravy train that’s cashing in. They see us as simply rabble to be controlled and as long as they are rewarded in terms of finances and power they’re indifferent. Their only mission is themselves.

They have followed the other institutions into this same rabbit hole

The real question is what will the junior officers do and will the ones who actually believe in the military’s mission bother to stay? Who will bother to enlist in such an army and what will they do when they can’t get the bodies to sign up?

And again the Army is just one aspect of this problem in government, medicine and academia.

John Adams said that public business has to be done by someone. If we chase out the honest and honorable then then we’ll have what we have.

Our enemies have played this very well.

We Interrupt this blog to post Rules for my new 1969 Dynasty Draft League UPDATE Early Waivers

Posted: September 17, 2021 by datechguy in baseball, dynasty baseball, gaming, online gaming, Sports
Tags: , ,

I’m near the point of starting the 1969 season draft league, 16 teams are raring to go. Finished the schedule a few minutes ago and for the sake of the players here are some rules that you will want to know before we start.

The Draft:

The draft will consist of each team picking in turn a single player from the players in the draft pool. When each team has picked that will be considered a “round”

In our initial season the draft will consist of 34 rounds or until at the start of a round there are less players to be drafted then teams in the draft.

In subsequent seasons the draft will consist of as many rounds as needed to fill a 35 man roster on all teams or until there are no more players to draft.

In the initial season draft order will be determined by a dice roll 000-999 999 being high. Teams will draft in descending order. Highest roll drafting first.

In subsequent seasons draft order will depend on a team’s finish. The world series winner will draft last followed by the runner up, followed by the playoff teams based on deep they get in the playoffs & their record. followed by the rest of the league based on record. if there is a tie in a record a die roll will break it.

A team may trade any of their first five picks to another team up until the trade deadline., A team that holds another teams draft pick will make that pick based on said team’s finish.

Only picks for the next upcoming season are tradable. IE :Washington can’t trade their 1970 & 1973 draft picks for Rod Carew, but if they acquired Cincy’s 1st round pick for 1970 they could trade both of those for Rod.

I will post draft choices at my blog and update the post as players are picked thus the rosters will be out there. Once a team has picked I will notify the next team to prepare to pick.

I strongly suggest everyone start examine the 1969 cards, maybe play a series or two to become familiar with them.

Waivers



If there are any players still available after the draft said players will be the wavers pool.

Teams will be able to make Wavers picks starting in week 6. Wavers will end at the time of the September Callups

To make a pick a team must have room on its 35 man roster. If such room doesn’t exist a team must wave a player to make room for a potential pick.

Players on the DL do not count toward that 35 man roster.

If a team is already at 35 players when a player on the DL become eligible to be activated from the DL players the team must release a player to make room, said player will be eligible to be picked from wavers the following week.

Only one wavers pick allowed per week.

UPDATE EARLY WAVERS:

EARLY WAIVERS:  Regular waivers begins week 6 of the season under the written rules but teams may qualify for “early waivers”.  A team qualifies for early waivers by forgoing the rest of their remaining draft picks under the following schedule:

  • A team that forgoes all draft picks from round 30 on qualifies for early waivers after their first series
  • A team that forgoes all draft picks from round 31 on (4 picks) qualifies for early waivers after week 1 (2 series) 
  • A team that forgoes all draft picks from round 32 on (3 picks) qualifies for early waiver after week 2 (4 series)
  • A team that forgoes all draft picks from round 33 on (2 picks) qualifies for early waivers after week 3 (6 series)
  • A team that forgoes it’s final draft pick (round 34) qualifies for early waivers after week 4 (8 series)

Any team that picks through round 34 does not qualify for early waiver ad must wait till after week 5 to qualify for waivers picks

The order for early waivers shall be based on the record of the teams that qualify, ties will be broken based on draft order


Example Stl & Bal both qualify for early waivers after their 1st series and both have records of 1-2  because in round 30 StL was scheduled to pick  before balt StL would pick first in early waivers that week.  However if both have 3-3 records after week one Baltimore would pick ahead of them in early waivers that week because in week 31 Baltimore would have picked first

Because teams in early waivers will have rosters below 35 men they will not have to release any players from their roster when making waivers picks



Trades



After week 5 Trading will be allowed until the Trade deadline which will be the time of the September callups.

A player may trade either a player on his current 35 man roster or any of his first 5 draft picks for the following season, or any draft picks he has previously acquired to any other team.

A team that acquires a number of player that would put his roster over 35 must release sufficient players to make the 35 man roster.

Because of the nature of the game a “trade rationale” must be submitted along with the trade to the office of the commissioner and said trade must be approved. For example a team that is out of it might trade a star for draft picks for the following season or for a player who has a poor card this year but will have a good one next year, or contrarywise a player might give up someone who will have a strong card in 70 if they need a bat or pitcher to put them over the top.

Remember a trade is not completed until the Comish moves the player in the system from one team to the other.

If you are planning to leave this league please don’t do the whole fire sale thing as it will make it difficult for the person who takes your team over.


The DL

Players on the DL may not be traded or released until they come off the DL

If a team has players on the DL on the last day of the season that team said players will, after the final game of the season immediately count toward the 35 man roster and said team must immediately release sufficient players to get down to 35.

Replacements:

Real life always takes precedence over games and on occasion players will miss games or might be in a situation where they have to leave the league either temporarily or permanently

If a player is unable to play a series at the allotted date and time he is encouraged to contact his opponent & reschedule. If it is not possible to reschedule said player should put his team on auto for that series so his opponent can get the games in so as not to force an autoplay with the system taking both teams.

If gametime comes and your opponent is not there you are encouraged to give him 5 or 10 minutes to show up. If he does not show up or contact you by the 2nd 5 min wait period it is acceptable for you to being play

If due to illness or some other cause a player has to leave the league for a few weeks he is encouraged to find a replacement player to take over on a temp basis, if that is not possible he should put the team on autoplay until such time as he recovers.

If a player has to permanently leave the league and does not provide a replacement his team will go on autoplay and I will attempt to find a replacement manager.

Expansion Draft (4 team minimum)

Players who inquire about the league during the season will be put on a wait list and be considered 1st in line to take any team if someone quits. If at the end of any season or up to two weeks before a draft we have 4 players waiting to join then we will allow an expansion draft to let then in before draft day.

Any expansion draft will be based on the 35 man rosters before teams name their protected players. New rookies for the upcoming season are not included in any expansion draft. Each expansion team may draft 8 players as a base.

Teams are able to protect 5 players from their 35 man roster. Once a team picks a player from their team an additional five players may be protected. If a 2nd player is taken an additional 10 players may be protected. Once a 3rd player is taken no further players may be drafted from said team.

In addition to the expansion draft. Once the protected rosters are released the expansion teams may each take an additional player from the draft pool whose card is from their franchise. IE if the Boston Redsox are an expansion draft team and Bill Lee is available in the draft the Sox may pick him as their protected player before the regular draft begins. If no player from their roster is in the draft then they are out of luck.

If I think of anything I forgot I’ll put it here.

With the vaccine mandate the Biden Regime has now become a petty dictatorship

Posted: September 16, 2021 by Jon Fournier in Uncategorized
Tags: , , , , , ,

With the issuance of this unconstitutional edict Joe Biden crossed over the threshold into a level of tyranny that has only been exhibited in totalitarian dictatorships.  He has now gone further along that path than any president in the history of the United States, which is saying a lot considering the levels of tyranny the people of the United States experienced under Woodrow Wilson, FDR, and Obama.

This one provision of his proclamation violates so many fundamental provisions of the United States Constitution.

The Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is developing a rule that will require all employers with 100 or more employees to ensure their workforce is fully vaccinated or require any workers who remain unvaccinated to produce a negative test result on at least a weekly basis before coming to work. OSHA will issue an Emergency Temporary Standard (ETS) to implement this requirement. This requirement will impact over 80 million workers in private sector businesses with 100+ employees.

Nowhere under the Constitution is the federal government granted the authority to mandate that individuals must have a substance injected into their bodies, not even a hypothetical vaccine that is 100 percent safe and 100 percent effective against a seriously deady virus.  Every single individual has the right to decide for themselves what does and does not go into their bodies.  That right is a fundamental component of one of our most important God-given Natural Rights which is Liberty.

Liberty if the freedom to do whatever you want as long as you do not hurt others or interfere with the rights of others. Not getting vaccinated against a disease does not qualify as hurting others because others are free to get the vaccine if they wish and others can protect themselves against a disease by taking proper measures.

The liberty of every individual is protected from the federal government by the Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment.   Here is the text of that amendment

No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the militia, when in actual service in time of war or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation.

The federal government can only compel you to do something you do not wish to do if you are found guilty in a court of law, by a jury, as long as due process is upheld.  The Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment offers the same protection against State and local governments.

For the federal government to force millions of Americans to get vaccinated with a vaccine that has not been fully tested and has a relatively high percentage of negative side effects is unconscionable, unconstitutional, and the very definition of tyranny.

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