Father: …you know, it’s a funny thing, dear … all the naughty words sound woody.

Mother: Really, dear? … How about tit?

Father: Oh dear, I hadn’t thought about that. Tit. Tit. Oh, that’s very tinny isn’t it? Ugh! Tinny, tinny …

Monty Python’s Flying Circus: Woody and Tinny Words sketch 1974

A couple of days ago Iowahawk one of the funniest men on the net noted that when he included the word “tits” in a post the engagement of said post skyrocketed.

As I’m semi retired from blogging posting only occasionally and doing a lot of rewrites of old songs to into hymns (an Elton John one goes up this weekend) I thought it would be an interesting experiment to see if he is correct.

Because my web traffic is less than a 1/20 of what it was when we were a top 100,000 site in the world (as I recall we reached top 88,000 at our peak if such a thing is true the numbers for the site in general and this post in particularly will be much higher than normal.

Does it really matter? Not really, but I remain curious about stuff I have that magpie mind that The Doctor is accused of having, maybe that’s why the show appealed to me so much.

Anyways in order to provide a control for this test I’ve avoid other “woody” words that might apply confining the post simply to the word “tits” knowing full well that it might scare Carol Cleveland’s character from the room.

If you don’t get the reference, here is the sketch

It’s one of the better sketches from the final season.

How the league is to be played

We will be playing the 1974 season under 1974 rules with three exceptions:

  1. There will be at least one interleague home and away series played to allow each player to play each other player at least once.
  2. The DH rule was introduced into the AL in 73 but not the NL. Therefore all games played in AL parks will be played with a DH. No games played in an NL park will have a DH.
  3. The playoff structure will include wild cards (3 per league)

The schedule

We currently have 20 teams two which are vacant (Cubs and Montreal) the schedule will remain as it was before as the system automatically migrates the old schedule. This will save a lot of work My goal will be to have the schedule ready before the draft. It is possible that we might expand to 24 teams but it is unlikely.

Number of games:

We will be playing 162 games Two series (one home and one away 6 games ) against teams in the opposite league and Four series against in league teams. Because of the number of teams there will be a slight imbalance

Six same league teams (Four 3 game series 12 games)
Three same league teams (Two 3 game series, Two 2 game series 10 games)

All those team determinations will be random.

Frequency of games

There will be two scheduled series per week. Most series will be 3 games there will be 6 two game series during the season.

Number of teams

We currently have 20 teams, 18 full at the moment, we can expand to 24 if there is interest. We will play with at least 20 teams even if one or both of the currently empty teams are computer teams.

Division setup:

Barring expansion with 20 teams we will have two five team divisions in each league. There will be three wild card teams. Both division winners and the wild card team with the best record will get a first round bye in the playoffs.

PREDRAFT AND DRAFT DAY TRADE WINDOWS!

Pre-Draft Trade window:

There will be a 48 hour window before the formal draft where trading will be allowed.

Any player on the roster (rookie or retained player) may be dealt along with drift picks up to the 7th round at this time.

Only draft picks for the upcoming draft will be tradable.

The trade window will end 15 minutes before the start of the formal draft to allow for any updates to lists to be recorded before the start.

Draft Day Trading up or down window.

At the end of each round there will be a 10 minute window for rosters to be adjusted and all the paperwork to be done.

For the first five rounds of the draft During those 10 minutes teams will be allowed to Trade. NO PICKS BEYOND THE 7th ROUND ARE TRADABLE. At the start of the 6th round Trading is closed in the league till after the 5th series of the regular season.

In Season Trades and waivers (Note change in when waivers starts).

After the fifth series of the season teams may trade. Any player on the current roster may be traded along with any of the first seven draft picks for the next season (1974) If a trade is made that increases a roster beyond the 40 man limit a player must be released before the next series is played. Any trades agreed will not be executed until all the teams involved have the same amount of games played.

Waivers takes place after the 2nd series. Teams make waivers picked based on their current record and are made from the undrafted players not on rosters.. If a pick brings a Roster over 40 a player must be released or an injured player not on the DL must be placed there to make room.

Contested, Uncontested and Emergency Waivers

Contested Waivers

Contested waivers are waivers picks made after week 5 and works like this:

  1. A team submits a waivers pick from Friday to Sunday
  2. Another team may usurp that pick and make it theirs if
    • It has a worse record than the 1st team
    • It has not already made waivers pick
    • It has not already tried to usurp a different pick
    • No team worse than them has tried to usurp it
    • They make the attempt 9 PM EST Monday
  3. If no team makes a counter claim on the pick by 10 PM EST Monday the waivers pick is successful.
  4. If a team successfully usurps the tip go to step 1 as if the usurping team make the pick

UNCONTESTED WAIVERS

Uncontested waivers picks are waivers picks that take place from weeks 2-5.

The picks are automatically successful and are decided on a first come first served basis. If you unknowingly submit a pick for a player who has already been claimed you may pick again.

Regardless of success the player won’t be added to your roster till your Friday games for that week are completed.

EMERGENCY WAIVERS

On rare occasions due to multiple injuries, suspensions or very long extra inning games or any combination thereof a team may not have a pitcher available to start or a player to play a position for their next series. In such a situation a team may contact the commissioner for Emergency Waivers.

If granted said team may make an uncontested waivers pick to either get the needed starting pitching or position player to fill the spot.

Said pick MUST be made at the end of a series or before the next as the Dynasty system doesn’t allow changes to the 40 man roster while a series is active.

If an emergency pick puts the team over 40 players a player must be released to get the roster back to 40.

If an emergency pick needs to be made for a computer team the commissioner will make the pick. Priority will be given to any qualifying player whose card is from the team needing the pick.

NOTE if a player drops out of the league and we have an empty team any draft picks he has traded those trades are still valid and will be picked by the team that received it.

Example: If the Cubs traded the NYY their 3rd round draft pick last season but were not an active team this year then during round 3 the Yankees would get the 2nd pick of the round as if they were.

The DL:

The DL WILL count toward your roster but to make up for it we will have a maximum 40 man roster. We will still only draft to 30 players but players may expand their rosters via trade and waivers. NEW: A team’s rookies will not count toward the 30 player draft but will count toward the 40 man roster.

Playing Games.

All games must be completed before the next scheduled series. the Dynasty system will take over and auto play any games that are not completed one hour before the next scheduled game (even if said unfinished game is in progress) Players are encouraged to use the chat room and the Dynasty message system to reschedule games if needed and are also encouraged to make a manager profile in case a game has to autoplay. Instructions on how to do that are here.

Be aware that if you have your team on AUTO and your opponent requests a rescheduled in the system Dynasty will automatically allow it so keep this in mind when or if you turn auto on. Also be aware if both team are on auto and you reschedule the game will be played automatically so make sure your team is not on auto before you do this.

Etiquette for no/call no show

This is a game and real life trumps it so there will be times when people miss their game days. Here is some suggested game day Etiquette:

  1. If you know in advance you can’t play on the scheduled game day and time try to contact your opponent to arrange a different time both through the chat room and the dynasty system.
  2. If gameday comes and your team is on AUTO your scheduled opponent should assume they can play all or part of their series if they choose.
  3. If gameday comes and you haven’t heard from your opponent check your “Friends” list to see when the last time they signed on was. If it is 10 days or more then play the series vs the PC
  4. Give two five minute waits: Wait 5 min for opponent to show periods before starting the game//If your opponent hasn’t shown up by then begin game 1.
    • Once game 1 is done. You have 2 choices. Either if followed is officially considered valid:
      • Give one 5 minutes period for your opponent to show if he doesn’t, Autoplay
      • Exit and let the system auto schedule for 24 hours from now. Then go to step 1
    • If you have to leave in the middle of a game or series your opponent has the right to continue to play. They may choose to agree to reschedule but experience tells me it’s bet to get the games done.
  5. On occasions when you and your opponent are in touch but just can’t seem to find a time when both are available I make the following suggestion.
    • The player who shows up on gameday should play one game (2 game series) or two games (3-4 game series) against the pc.
    • When those games are finished exit the system and put yourself on Auto being sure to check the “Take my team off auto after this series”
    • Then your opponent can finish the series as his or her time permits
  6. Keep in mind that the Dynasty system is designed to keep games moving the default position should always be to get games played when possible.
  7. Be aware if you’re running late you can join a game in progress and take over
  8. If you do show up and take over please let your opponent know via chat.

If you know you’re going to be gone let your opponent know. 

Expansion and Expansion draft

If there is a sudden interest in the league we may have an expansion draft under the following rules:

Selecting a franchise:

New players who do not take an existing franchise will be allowed to select any of the four currently open franchises they are:

AL

  • Chicago White sox
  • Detroit Tigers

NL

  • San Diego Padres
  • Houston Astros

They will automatically gain the rights to any rookies for the 1974 team of that franchise.

If we again have multiple expansion teams they will pick franchises in the order that they confirmed their intent to join the league.

If a current player expresses an intent to leave the league before the expansion draft the expansion players will in the order above be given the option of taking over that existing franchise including their roster and current draft picks (or lack thereof)

Expansion Draft:

If an expansion draft is announced each team will have two weeks to submit a list of protected players currently on their 40 man rosters. These players will not be eligible to be drafted in the expansion draft. There will be a maximum of 7 players on each teams protected list. it is recommended (but not required) to submit an additional twelve players to be protected once a player or two is drafted from their team.

Whenever a player is chosen off a team in the expansion draft said team will be able to immediately protect an additional five players. No team can lose more than three payers to the expansion draft. If a list is not submitted before the draft and not submitted at the time the first player is taken from the team then said team will not have additional players protected until such a list is provided. I will allow a reasonable amount of time in case the player is not in the chat room for me to try to contact said player before another player is takin from his team.

Expansion teams must draft a minimum of four players and may pick up to a maximum of 12 players to their rosters before the regular draft. The number of players picked in the expansion draft by an expansion team will determine where they will draft in the regular draft.

As soon as all expansion teams have completed their drafts two things happen

  1. All teams must submit the list of players retained in the regular draft. The players drafted by the expansion teams are considered to be that list.
  2. All Rookies become property of their franchises and count toward their current rosters. but NOT toward their number of protected players.

Franchise locations and parks

Every team is presumed to have the park their team played in during the season they entered the league.

Franchises whose teams move in real life are not required to relocate their teams. So the Washington Senators are not required to move to Texas but they retain the option to do so at any time.

Franchises are NOT required to build new stadiums and may continue to play in their old stadiums if they wish but they retain the right to move into those new stadiums at any time so another team may NOT select that stadium. If a team chooses to move into their new park in the same city the old park is considered demolished UNLESS said park was still active in the year we are playing. It is considered by be undergoing renovation.

A team may NOT move into a park that in a different city because the Dynasty system bases the weather on the park used NOT the city that a team’s label claims it is in. Thus if the Seattle Pilots HAD to move to Milwaukee to play in Country Stadium.

A team may NOT move into a park in the same city that belongs to a future franchise. Example. If the Washington choose to remain in DC rather than move to Texas they may NOT move into the Nationals park. It is considered reserved for that franchise when it becomes available although I suspect none of us will live long enough to reach that point.

Old parks

A team MAY move into an old park from the same city under the following conditions:

  1. The park was once the home park of the franchise OR
  2. The franchise that once owned the park is now located in another city

Examples,

  • In 1971 the Seattle Pilots moved to Milwaukee the Mariners if taken MAY move into Sick Stadium.
  • The Cardinals may move into Sportsman’s park because it was once their old stadium.
  • The Yankees were able to move into the Polo Grounds for 1972 because that park was in NY and the team was once based there. If at some future date they choose to move back to Yankee Stadium the Mets will be able if they choose to move to the Polo grounds because it was once their home park. If both teams move there and eventually move out then the park is considered demolished.

Rookies

A “Rookie” is define as any player who did not have a card for the previous season.

A rookie is considered to be part of the team listed on their card regardless of who they actually played their first game for (Dynasty lists cards based on who a player finishes a season with thus any rookie that was traded by an MLB team in his first season will have their card listed for the team they were traded to NOT the team they played their first game with.

All teams retain rights to their rookies prior to the draft and rookies for a franchise are not eligible to be drafted in any expansion draft.

A Rookie becomes a part of a team after said team names their protected players for the draft. They count toward the 40 man roster, NEW: Teams will have the option if a rookie counts toward the 30 player draft limit.

NEW: All teams will retain any rookies assigned to them until after the draft is completed. They may choose to have some all or none of their rookies count toward their 30 man draft.

Any team that doesn’t want to retain a rookie may release them after the draft to open up a roster spot but once release all rights to said player are surrendered.

Players retained list

All teams may retain a number of players based on their finish in the 1972 season.

  • World series winner 4 players (Orioles)
  • World series runner up 5 players (Reds)
  • non-world series Division winners 6 players (Dodgers), Brewers)
  • Wild Card Teams Winners that don’t make the series 7 players (Pirates, Royals, Cubs, Twins)
  • Wild Card game losers 8 players ( Cleveland, Braves (Bananas) )
  • Non division winning teams with the 5th and 6th best records 9 players (A’s, Cardinals)
  • Non division winning teams with the 7th and 8th best record 10 players ( Senators, Yankees)
  • Teams with the 3rd-6th worst records 11 players (Angels, Expos, Daytraders (Mets), Redsox)
  • Teams with the worst and 2nd worst record 12  players (Giants, Phillies)

Note 1: The Cardinals, Senators and Yankees all finished with identical 73-89 records the Cardinals were considered ahead of the others for keepers due to their 3rd place finish vs the Yankees & Senators who finished 4th in their respective divisions.

NOTE 2: If a player on your current Roster does not have a card for the next season due to injury, military service etc but WILL the following year a team may choose to retain the rights to said player but will have to spend a protected spot for it and will have to keep a space for him all season.

Example: Rico Carty was out for all of 1971 due to injury. Boston could have decided to hold his rights playing 1971 with 39 players and thus hold the 1972 rights to Carty. If he had done so and then at any time he chooses to release him Carty would have been considered a rookie for Atlanta Rookie because

  1. He had no card the previous year
  2. No team held his rights
  3. His 1972 card says “Atlanta”

Boston choose not to retain so Carty was considered released. Carty’s 1972 card was with the Braves thus they did not have to put him on the retained list as he was considered a rookie for the team.

NOTE 3: If Either the Cubs or the Expos are not taken within 1 week of the Draft the Commissioner will determine the keepers for the computer teams

The draft order of teams has been posted here and will be repeated below taking into account the possibility of expansion teams. Any team that is not retained will of course not be drafting BUT If a team holds the draft pick of a team that is no longer in the league he will draft those picks as if that team was still in the league in the round that he holds them. Naturally if there is expansion this wouldn’t apply.

  1. Worst team (12) New York Giants1
  2. 2nd worst team (12) Philadelphia Phillies
  3. 3rd worst team (12) (Montreal Expos3(if an expansion team picks only 4 they draft ahead of the Orioles)
  4. 4th worst team (11) (California Angels)
  5. 5th worst team (11) (New York Mets (Daytraders) ) (if an expansion team picks only 5 they draft ahead of the Senators)
  6. 6th worst team (11) (Boston Redsox)
  7. 7th worst team (10) (Washington Senators2) (An expansion team that picks only 6 drafts ahead of the Giants)
  8. 8th worst team (10) (St Louis Cardinals)
  9. 9th worst team (9) (New York Yankees) (An expansion team that picks only 7 picks ahead of the the Tribe)
  10. Best non playoff team (9) (Oakland A’s)
  11. Wild Card game loser with worst record (8) Cleveland Indians (An expansion team that picks only 8 picks ahead of the Halos)
  12. Wild Card game loser with best record (8) (Atlanta Braves (Bravos))
  13. Divisional round loser with the worst record (7) (Chicago Cubs3(An expansion team that picks only 9 picks ahead of the Halos)
  14. Divisional Round loser with the 2nd worst record (7) ( Minnesota Twins)
  15. Divisional Round loser with the 2nd best record (7) (Milwaukee Brewers) (An Expansion Team that picks only 10 picks Ahead of the Bucs)
  16. Divisional Round Loser with best record (7) (Pittsburgh Pirates)
  17. Worst Team that made it to the Pennant Series (6) Kansas City Royals
  18. Best team that made it to the Pennant Series (6) ( Los Angeles Dodgers)
  19. World series loser (5) Cincinnati Reds) (An expansion team that picks only 11 picks ahead of them)
  20. Word series winner (4) Baltimore Orioles Expansion Team(s) if any that draft 12 players pick after them

NOTES:

  1. The Giants and Phillies had identical 59-103 records but the Phillies went 7-5 against the Giants and thus are considered the better team for the draft.
  2. The Washington Senators, St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees finished with identical 73-89 records. The Cardinals were 3-3 vs both the Yankees and Senators and the Yankees were 7-5 vs the Senators. Therefore the Senators MUST pick ahead of the Yankees. Their combined head to head records were Yankees 10-8, Cardinals 6-6 Senators 8-10 therefore the Senators having the worst combined record will pick 7th, the Cardinals 8th and the Yankees 9th.
  3. If either or both the Cubs and the Expos are unclaimed by draft day their pick will be determined as follows
    • A die roll will determine if a pitcher or position player is taken
    • If it’s a position player the player with the highest WAR available for a position the team did not fill with a keeper will be drafted (rookies are not considered)
    • If it’s a Pitcher the highest WAR starting pitcher with unlimited starts will be taken. If a team already has 5 starters then the highest WAR pitcher will be taken
    • Computer teams will pick until they have at least 12 pitchers and 15 position players with a minimum of 2 players to play each position.

The first tiebreaker for non-playoff teams with identical records is head to head matchups The 2nd tiebreaker if teams had identical records AND split their season series is draft order for the previous season,

If two or more expansion teams draft the same number of players their draft position will be determined by a dice roll

When all teams have drafted that will be considered the end of a round and the next round will commence.

DRAFT ENDS AT 30 PLAYERS

Teams must continue to draft in this order until their team reaches 25 men a team with 25 or more players may leave the draft at any time. NEW (NOTE this 25 may include some, all or no rookies)

Once a team has dropped out of the draft they may not re-enter it and must increase their roster either through trades or waivers.

Teams who do not drop will will draft till they reach 30 men. NEW (NOTE this 25 may include some, all or no rookies)

Formal & Informal Draft

Draft on designated Draft day(s):

A date and time will be set for the initial rounds of the draft. It will almost certainly be a Saturday or SUNDAY as those are the days I currently have off. All teams will be expected to be either:

  1. Available in the slack chat room (preferred)
  2. Available by phone
  3. With me in my home at the time of the draft
  4. Have a list of players to be drafted submitted

All current players are presumed to have looked over the card(s) for 1974 online or at least looked up stats by draft day. All expansion teams (if any) encouraged to start doing so at once.

  1. There will be one designated draft day per week.
  2. On a designated draft day a strict 5 minute limit will be allowed to make a pick.
  3. If a team misses their pick will be moved to after the next player on the list who will be considered on the clock and allowed to pick. Example Philadelphia misses their pick and Montreal is next, Montreal is allowed to pick and Philly picks after them
  4. If a team who has been skipped has to be skipped twice their pick can be made any time before the end of the round. Example Washington is scheduled to pick 10th They miss their pick If they figure out who they want they can make a pick or submit a list any time before the end of the round and that pick will be valid.
  5. If a team that has been skipped has not picked by the end of the round then a pick will be made for them by me. Said pick will be the player from your franchise who played the most games that season based on their card. Example: Boston does not pick or submit a list for round 5 I will look at the Roster for the actual 1972 red sox to see who is available. If Billy Conligiliaro has the most games played among unpicked players he will be Boston draft pick. If Boston already has 6 outfielders that will not matter Billy C becomes the pick.
  6. As soon as a round ends there is ten minute period to update rosters and list and confirm players. During that period Draft day trades may be made as per above.
  7. The opening Scheduled draft days will go on for 100 picks. Other scheduled draft days will be 60 picks. Once the number of picks is reached the clock is turned off
  8. The Formal Draft generally begins at either 11 AM or 1 PM EST to give west coast folk the time to be awake. Be aware of that if you are scheduled to pick

BE AWARE THAT EVEN WITH A FIVE MINUTE LIMIT THAT CAN MEAN 100 MINUTES FOR 20 TEAMS TO PICK IN ONE ROUND. PLEASE DO YOUR BEST TO PREPARE FOR THE DRAFT TO CUT DOWN ON THE TIME REQUIRED. The more prepared everyone is the faster things will go.

Picks off the clock and on non-draft days

As soon as the initial draft ends the “informal draft” begins

During the informal draft a team has 24 hours to make a pick. Picks can be submitted in the draft room or via the Dynasty message system or in person if the person picking is local or via the phone to me. If there is an existing list from the formal draft it will be used to continue the informal draft.

Once the pick is made and recorded on the draft sheet and the player moved to the roster I will announce the pick in the slack chat room and inform the person up, the person on deck and the person in the hole to be prepared to pick. Until you see that announcement the pick is not official.

The Informal draft ends when:

  • All teams have either 30 players or have dropped out OR
  • The next formal draft begins

The informal draft resumes after any formal draft that still has teams picking.

Be aware that trading can be made at any time during the informal draft until:

  • round seven is complete
  • 15 minutes before a formal draft that has not completed round 7

IMPORTANT: Once round seven of the draft is complete trading is finished until the end of week 5 of the season.

The season will begin one to two weeks after the draft is complete depending on my schedule.

Also be aware that during work hours (Mon-Fri 7 am-3:30) PM I have no access to the net nor do I own a cell phone if an issue comes up during that time which can’t wait refer it to the assistant commissioner

Important Update: The SF giants and the Oakland A’s switched teams so they have switched their spots in the draft and keeper list as well


If you have any questions not covered here please let me know.

Suddenly a few Democrats are arguing that the reflexive opposition to Trump’s move to clean up DC is a trap for them from Mika Brzezinski and Chris Matthews:

To Maureen Dowd:

“I have no doubt that Trump enjoys targeting Democratic-controlled cities for embarrassment,” Powell writes. “I also have little doubt that a mother in Ward 8 might draw comfort from a National Guard soldier standing watch near her child’s school.”

The diva of distraction is putting on a show. (They’re eating the cats and the dogs!) But progressives should not fall into Trump’s trap and play down crime, once more getting on the wrong side of an inflammatory issue. As with inflation, they should remember that personal experiences can count more than sanguine statistics.

Even if Trump is being diabolical, Democrats should not pretend everything is fine here. Because it’s not.

The truth is they are half right, this IS a trap for the Democrats but NOT the one they think.

They think the trap is to try and get them to object to Trump’s actions while they are taking place and that is a bit of a trap making them look pro-criminal but that’s not the real trap.

The REAL trap is the vote on extending Trump’s DC time beyond 30 days and what happens next.

You see the Democrats are not likely to extend Trump’s time in DC when they keep calling him another “Hitler” or a “Totalitarian” etc etc etc so it seems unlikely that they will allow him to keep up the job and/or finish it.

What follows after they reject it IS the trap.

You see if I was a criminal in DC and I had the ability to go to ground for a month or so that’s what I’d be doing now. I’d keep a low profile and head for the hill until Trump’s folks are gone or until I couldn’t afford to do so or relocate.

But once the regular crowd is back in DC then it’s business as usual, that’s the trap:

  • What happens in DC, particularly in the black areas once Trump people leave the the Democrats who run this city go back to not policing the gangs?
  • What happens to DC once the graffiti goes back up on the monuments?
  • What happens to DC when the addicts and the homeless camps and the needles are back?
  • What happens to DC when the subways are once again not safe?
  • What happens the first time a tourist is mugged or beaten or killed after Trump goes away?

You see it was one thing when the residents were resigned to this situation and convinced it could not change, but what happens when they’ve had a full month of feeling safe in their city for the first time in years thank to Trump and then have it taken away thanks to the Democrats? What happens when they KNOW their city can be safe and the Democrats just won’t make it safe?

That’s the trap. It’s the kind of trap that changes votes and political alignments.

Now the Democrats have two ways to solve this dilemma:

  1. Extend Trump’s time in DC
  2. Actually crack down on crime.

If they do the first the wacko base will punish them severely for it, if they do the second then at best the people ask: “Why weren’t you doing this before?” and at worst they don’t get paid by the criminals or can’t use them for political purposes (which is what I think is actually the reason for what was going on).

It will be very interesting to see which path they choose to take. Let me give them this clue:

The right thing is generally the smart thing.

Yesterday I was at an event at the American Heritage Museum in Hudson MA. They had a parade of World War 2 Tanks: Stewarts, Shermans and a Jackson. For those with money to burn you could actually ride in said tanks and if you had a LOT of dough to burn you could even getting a driving lesson or two.

Their collection of items from a Russian T-34 to a German Panther and a British Matilda and lots more. It was like a living exhibit of the book Great Weapons of World War II, they also has tanks and planes from later eras as well as other exhibits.

But the real prize of a 103 year old gentleman who served in the Pacific both in New Guinea and in the Philippines at the same time as my father. My sons born in the 1990’s have known few such men while in my youth I was surrounded by those like him who had seen combat in World War 2. I met plenty when my dad took me to the local VFW and such events. I found myself very moved when I realized that this was likely the last such man I would ever meet.

And that, in a round about way brings me to Russia, the talks between Trump and Putin and the attempt to end this war.

Before anything considers this one must look at Russia honestly, for all the efforts of Peter the Great and all the perceptions of elites, Russia is not a western country, it’s people are not western people and it does not think like a western people.

Russia is a country that suffered defeats. They lost small wars to Japan and Poland in the last 150 years and had massive defeats both in Europe and in Russia proper to the armies of Napoleon and Hitler before their armies eventually marched to victory in bringing down both Napoleon with the help of the Brits and Prussians and Hitler with the help of America and England.

No Russian leader will forget that in each of the previous two centuries they were invaded by the single greatest war machine in the world of the time and both had to be repelled at great cost. In us the Russians face the greatest war machine in the history of history. No amount of assurances, deals or negotiation is going to convince any Russian leader that the west does not have designs on their territory and or their vast resources.

Furthermore they remember that at one time the Ukraine was the bread basket of Russia and that the Baltic states and Poland once flew their flag.

Their misadventure in Ukraine (which they see internally as protecting a Russian minority as well as reclaiming a chunk of “historical” Russia) is in many ways a way to create a larger buffer between Russia proper and western armies.

When I say “misadventure” I’m referring to their reverses. The Ukrainians who have no business beating a world power who dwarfs them in population and arms have been stubborn, creative and have managed quite a few moves to set a complacent Russia on their heels but the reality is this:

Ukraine can not win a war of attrition: Eventually they will run out of manpower while Russia can bring not only their own troops but North Korean troops to the fight. Basically they’re in the same position as Lee being driven towards the siege of Petersburg. They can make some impressive moves but It’s only a matter of time.

The only way that Lee could have been saved would have been massive intervention by a foreign power but England was not going to war to save the Southern Confederacy and France was not going to war without England.

In the same way the only way Putin can be defeated militarily would be if west decided on open war.

Europe will not go to war without America and the bottom line is America is not going to risk a war that at best would cost tens of thousands of lives and at worst will result in a nuclear exchange that would not spare the American mainland not to mention what would happen to eastern Europe when the scourge of the last World War is still in living memory.

There are plenty of self righteous keyboard warriors who have no problem with hundreds of thousands of Americans and others sent to Ukraine to risk death as they sit far away imagining themselves immune to the costs but to those of us who live in the real world and understand how many men like the old gentlemen I met yesterday didn’t come back think twice before committing our young men to the risk of death in a fight that frankly isn’t ours.

That being said a deal must be made, such a deal has to take into account the realities on the ground plus understanding that you don’t want Putin to be in a situation where a more belligerent rival will replace him on the promise of winning a war he lost.

Thus Trump will negotiate with a goal of preserving as much of Ukraine as possible as an independent state with the ability to defend itself while taking into account both what the Russians currently hold and the ethnic issues of Russians in said area.

It’s not going to be easy anything short of Putin begging for forgiveness will be painted as a defeat by the left and anything that doesn’t give Putin sovereignty over most if not all of Donbas will likely cause grief to the Russian hawks, but only quietly as Putin is still Putin.

Let’s hope Trump can pull it off, if anyone can it’s him.

A final thought, all of this was made possible by Joe Biden & Co who signaled to Putin that he had no issue with him going to take the Donbass (the media might have forgotten Biden’s words before and at the start of the invasion but I haven’t). Putin seeing Biden for what he was, a weak horse not actually in charge, decided to go all in and try to take the lot rather than grabbing the piece old Joe’s team thought he was going for. For all his faults (and he has PLENTY) if Zelenskyy doesn’t very publicly turn down Biden offer of escape and declared he would stay and fight we might be talking about Russia threatening Moldovia or even Belarus, assuming he didn’t gobble them up while the weak Biden admin was his only threat.

If Trump adds peace in Ukraine via a deal that preserves Ukrainian independence to his already impressive case for the Nobel based on his peace efforts worldwide, the prize will likely be automatic. If it happens we must remember that whatever else I might think and whatever else he has done the reason why there will be a Ukraine still there for Trump to save was because of Zelenskyy.