Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

Well the wild cards rounds are done so now it’s time for the divisional rounds

AL

Kansas City Royals (95-67) 3rd Seed at Milwaukee Brewers (92-70) Beta Division title

Season series Milwaukee 6-4

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have one big bat in the person of veteran Frank Robinson who found the fountain of youth this season with 25 HR leading the team. Former MVP Bobby Murcer has not come back to the levels he had in NY but he put up reasonable numbers for the team.

But the strength of the team is their ace Bert Blyleven who dominated the majors winning the AL Cy Young in a walk winning 25 (most in majors) with the 2nd best ERA in the majors 2.41. Bob Reynolds managed 10 wins in relief. Doug Bird picked up 6 saves in six chances and Ramon Hernandez added 18 more but also blew seven. The rest of the rotation Nelson Briles, Bill Greif and Mike Cuellar were adequate with mid range ERA’s (3.69- 4.15)

The individual numbers aren’t earth shattering but they were good enough to be 3rd in the AL in batting and 2nd in the league in doubles. It all added up to 95 wins and kept KC in the fight for the division until the very end of the season.

Secret Weapon: Contact. Only the Yankees and the Cardinals stuck out less that the Royals this season.

Milwaukee Brewers 92-70 1st AL Beta

Milwaukee lives and Dies with Pete Rose who led the league in batting hitting .339 and hits 224 hits including 10 triples and 34 doubles. Rose scored 102 runs and drove in 100 despite only hitting 2 HR all season. This was made possible in part thanks to two things. Ron Fairly (146 walks) and Denis Menke (119 walks) batting ahead of him and Billy Williams last year’s triple crown winner in the NL who not only did not make Atlanta’s cut but somehow dropped to 17th in the draft allowing Milwaukee to pick him up to bat behind Rose, where he hit .296 with 22 HR and 122 runs driven in (2nd in AL). Rookie Catcher Darryl Porter finally got some full time play and kept the balls going out adding power to a team that lacked it. The final pieces came in a trade with Boston which lost them Bernie Carbo’s great bat, OBP and Arm, but gained the Bud Harrelson’s defense and Willie Davis’ range and Bat to round them out.

On the Mound the Rotation of Ken Holtzman 18-14 3.12 , Don Wilson 20-8 3.33 and Al Downing 14-11 2.81 (plus 3 saves in 4 chances) is one of the best in the majors. Add to that George Stone 11-7 3.68 as the #4 man who might be a #2 or 3 on any other team and you have one of the most devastating rotations in the game, particularly 2-4. Ellis Sosa managed 15 saves but led the league with 8 blown and veteran Bob Miller did much better saving 8 and blowing only two.

Secret Weapon OF Steve Byre .286 9 HR & 58 RBI might not seem like much but hit .300 with a .386 OBP vs LHP

Peter’s pick. (Full disclosure I manage Milwaukee) In a five game series Bert Blyleven might get 2 starts which is bad news for Milwaukee but Milwaukee has the advantage both in pitching for games 2-4 and in Batting overall. The wild card that might make the difference is that the Brewers Rotation leans heavily left and KC as a team was 34-18 vs LHP (.654) It’s going to be a tight series thanks to that stat but I just don’t think Kansas City has enough bats to overcome a Milwaukee team that constantly wears down pitching staffs. But of course if it goes to a game 5 and Blyleven starts with the game on the line KC can feel pretty good about themselves.

Brewers in 4

Orioles 101-61 vs Twins 80-82 Season Series even 6-6

Baltimore lived by the long ball. Their 222 HR were not only the most in the AL by 55 they were a full 35 HR over Cincinnati which has one of the most devastating lineups in the game. They lead the majors in slugging and OBS with four players hitting over 30 HR (Amos Otis 36, Doug Rader 34, Davey Johnson 34 and Gene Tenace 32. Otis excelled in almost every category coming in 2nd in the MVP vote by only a point. In a league where only five qualifying batters hit .300 or better Baltimore had two (Otis .308 and Al Bumbry .302) along with Rich Coggins who with 407 plate appearances didn’t qualify but hit .322. That meant plenty of men on base as the balls cleared the fences. Tenace, Coggins, Otis, Bumbry and John Milner all had OBP from .360 (Tenace) to .387 (Otis) Three men scored over 100 runs (Otis, Johnson and Bumbry) and Tenace was only 3 runs short of being the 4th.

If all that power wasn’t enough Baltimore’s 3.72 ERA was very respectable and their top four starters Dave Roberts 18-11 3.22, Steve Renko 18-8 3.40, Andy Messerschmidt 21-11 3.61 and Rookie Jim Slaton 15-8 3.62 (a steal from Milwaukee last season) all with WHIP’s running from 1.16-1.35 means very few teams will get a chance to match them run for run. Closer Bob Locker managed 23 saves with only five blown and a 1.10 WHIP meaning that if they get to the 8th with a lead it’s likely not going anywhere.

Secret Weapon. In a league with few steals Al Bumbry 11 SB 1 CS and Don Baylor 8 SB 1 CS are a threat to run if given a chance

Minnesota Twins 80-82 2nd Wild card:

For the Twins team evaluation from wild card series click here.

Minnesota beats Cleveland 2-1

Game one:

Stan Bashan did his best Bert Blyleven imitation holding the tribe’s bats to five hits and one run over 9 innings. Meanwhile the twins two runs in the second on a Hisle single the third of three to start the inning and a fielders choice was more than enough to do the job even if they hadn’t added 3 in the sixth and another in the 8th

Twins 7 Indians 1

Game 2:

The Twins and the Tribe traded single runs back and forth off of Bob Moose and Dave McNally until Tony Perez went long with a man on in the 6th one of only 5 hits given up by McNally in 7 innings but Moose pitched 9 and gave up only one hit more to even things up

Indians 4 Twins 2

Game 3

The indians had their ace Jon Matlack for game three while the Twins answered with Alexander. The tribe struck first with one in the 3nd off a Hebner error after a walk and single but in the bottom of the inning. Al Oliver singled and Ray Fossie doubled him in to tie the game and then Mark Belanger throwing error plated Fossie and Sent Grich to 2nd with nobody out. He made it to 3rd on an Appricio single and scored on a Sac fly making it 3-1 when Buddy Bell returned the favor with an error of his own loading the bases and allowing Aparicio to score on a fielders choice. They never looked back. Each team traded a run later on but once Sparky Lyle came on the mound in the 9th the series belonged to Minnesota as he retired the side in order.

Twins 5 Indians 2

The pick: Baltimore is facing a Twins team that just won a close and played them even all season but it’s impossible to ignore the combination of this lineup with this rotation. I can’t see Minnesota pulling it off although if they can get a lead Lyle can give them a game

Orioles in 4

Chicago Cubs (79 – 83 ) at Cincinnati Reds: 120-42

Cincy won season series 8-4

Cubs 79-83 Won wild card in 3 games For team eval click here

Game 1 Burt Hooten held the Braves to a single run while Jeff Burroughs went deep on Catfish Hunter who was removed for a pinch hitter after giving up 4 runs in two innings. Those four were all the Cubs would need.

Chicago 9 Atlanta 1

Game 2

It was Fergie Jenkins who went long only giving up a pair of runs over 8 innings while Chicago went hitless with runners in scoring position. Rick Reuschel pitched into the 7th giving up 4 runs and a pair of homers but while Rollie Fingers gave up a solo shot it in the 9th it wasn’t enough to save the day.

Atlanta 6 Cubs 3

Game 3

Neither starter lasted Kooseman out after three innings and two runs while Decker also gave up a pair of runs but lasted an inning longer. However the Cubs advanced getting one in the 6th, two in the 7th and adding one more in the ninth thanks to going 5-17 with runners in scoring position while the Bravos managed only a single hit in seven such opportunities as three Cubs relievers managed six innings of shutout ball.

Chicago 6 Atlanta 2

Biggest surprise: Caesar Cedeno who had a spectacular season managed only one single in 11 trips to the plate

Cincinnati Reds 120-42

Cincinnati dominated the National League and everyone else making deal after deal to improve their team until they rolled up a final lineup Trades brought the Willie Stargell (.280 31 HR 117 RBI) Bill Sudakis (.282 26 HR 66 RBI) John Mayberry (.253 24 HR 80 RBI), Thurman Munson (.302 11 HR 68 RBI) and Ken Singleton ( .302 13 HR 78 RBI’s) Meanwhile hometown talent Joe Morgan scored an amazing 164 runs thanks to an obp of .402 while stealing 54 bases and Toby Harrah managed 16 HR and 69 RBI while batting .278 and Rookie Ken Griffey batted .322 in part time play a sign of great things to come.

Meanwhile when you look at the stats of the arms in Cincy you notice one amazing fact: The worst ERA for any pitcher who even pitched part of a season for the Reds is 4.80 and the WORST on the current roster who pitched 20 innings or more is Don Gullett who went 15-8 with an ERA of 3.83. Again trades made the difference Jim Brewer 6-1 out of the pen with an ERA of 3.50 & a WHIP of 1.27, Starter Jack Billingham acquired early in the season won 19 of his 20 wins for the Reds with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. Bill Bonham 5-3 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. Mel Stottlemyre 15-3 3.01 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and finally ageless Don McMahon who went 4-0 with an ERA of 0.96 at the age of 43. But home grown relivers like Pedro Borbon 13-8 22 saves and Dick Barney (10-0) certainly did their share.

And if all of that wasn’t enough their .986 fielding percentage was 4th best in the majors and only a single point behind the 3 leaders.

Secret Weapon: In a league full of base stealers Reds Catchers threw out 14 in 29 attempts (.483)

Peter’s pick: One has to give the Cubs credit for pluck they managed to eliminate a stronger Braves team in three games but facing a team 2nd in the majors in pitching (3.23) OBP (.346 1st in NL) slugging (.429 1st in NL) , 4th in fielding (.986) and first in batting (.265) in the Majors I can’t see pluck managing to win more than one game at best.

Reds in 4

Pittsburgh Pirates 95-67 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 110-52 Pittsburgh 6-4 season series

Pirates 1st Wild Card

Rod Carew hit .353 to lead the majors and scored 121 runs thanks to a .419 OBP while driving in 83. Tommy Harper had a resurgent year scoring 117 of his own while hitting 17 HR and stealing 19 bases. George Scott (.295 16 HR 83 RBI) and Bill Melton (,279 23 HR 88 RBI) gave plenty of people fits but Hammering Hank Aaron ruled the roost smacking 53 Home Runs and driving in 147 while scoring 113 of his own with an OBP of .389. Only Cincy drove in more runs than the Pirates

On the Mound Gaylord Perry had another banner year going 15-7 with an ERA of 2.42 and a WHIP of 1.19. Despite giving up 18 HR in 247 innings Jim Colburn went 15-6 and posted a 3.17 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Bill Singer was the hard luck man in the rotation. Batters only hit .213 against him, he put up a WHIP of 1.21 and an ERA of 3.11 but only managed a 14-14 record. Even worse for the Pirates foes if the game got to the 8th or 9th on came Mike Marshall who saved 25 of 29 and went 13-8 in 63 games of relief.

Finally the Pirates had the best defense in the majors with the fewest errors in the majors.

Secret Weapon. Tom Bradly who worked both a starter and a reliver and was highly effective in both locations.

Add these things together and it means a lot of trouble for a lot of good teams with better records.

LA Dodgers 1st in NL Beta Division:

Batting: Willie McCovey .261 34 HR and 90 RBI was a terror to pitchers in the league, so much so that they walked him 132 times (against only 107 k’s). Joe Ferguson only managed to hit .210 but hit 24 HR and drove in 77 when he did hit. Mike Lum and Garry Maddox both hit over .300 to support the cause which helped them to a +243 run differental.

But the real reason for that number was the pitching. The TEAM ERA of the Dodgers was 2.49! That’s just under 3/4 of a run less than any other major league team. The duo of Tom Seaver (7-3 2.50) acquired from the Daytraders and Don Sutton 22-10 2.32 are a devastating pair. The underrated Wayne Twitchell went 16-7 with a 2.49 ERA a WHIP of 1.07 and an avg against .191 while pitching 3rd in the rotation. To put it all in perspective. The pitcher who did the worst for them was J. R. Richard who had a 3.46 ERA with batters hitting .206 against him. He’s the #5 man.

The Dodgers have a good offense but not overpowering however their rotation is so much better than anyone else how does a team manage to have a chance?

Peter’s Pick

If there was a series of the week this one would be it. Two formidable teams with two excellent managers. By sheer numbers one must make the Dodgers who finished a full 15 games ahead of the Bucks the edge but that didn’t stop Pittsburgh from winning the season series. Basically star studded hitting (Pit) with one great pitcher and plenty of very good ones vs a star studded rotation with one star hitter and an excellent supporting cast. With the #1 & 2 NL Cy Young pitchers and a team ERA almost a full runner better than Pit the Dodgers will be stingy but I have a feeling that Hammering Hank will get the last laugh.

Pirates in 5 but just barely