There are a lot of reasons why the war in Ukraine continues on. The Russian “official” Casus Belli was to protect ethnic Russians in the area. While that concern has some legitimacy to it that’s the thing about creating an empire of unwilling states, when your people move there and said empire breaks up as empires do the folks who moved there they tend to be disliked by the natives.
#unexpectedly of course
The actual Casus Belli had two additional components that were likely much bigger drivers.
- The desire to re-establish the old Russian control of Ukraine which predates communism by a century or more.
- Biden telegraphing to Putin that if he went into Donbas it was OK (People tend to forget that 2nd part)
Putin being Putin seeing that Biden was Biden then decided to go all in rather than just settling for Donbas and Biden being Biden (or whoever was actually running the country) swiftly offered Zelensky free passage out of Ukraine before it fell. Zelensky showing that he’s more than just another corrupt kleptocratic answered in words that Ukrainians will never forget:
“The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,”
There is not a lot to admire about Zelensky but with that answer he likely saved not only his country but likely Moldovia too. The aid came and the Russians were stopped and Kiev held.
In the western part of the country Russia had much more success and Ukrainian attempts to drive them out have met with failure. Russia can’t go beyond Donbas without a major escalation and for all the weapons granted them by NATO allies Ukraine can’t drive them out.
This leads to stalemate and Attrition.
Russia having been invaded twice in the last two centuries by the single most powerful military in the world at the time (Napoleon 1812, Hitler 1941) is now VERY worried about NATO being right on their border (the Finish borders is not suitable for an invasion of Russia). To a westerner the idea of NATO invading Russia might seem insane but Russia fought a war with Poland in the 1920’s and didn’t do all that well and given the failures of the Russian war machine exposed by this war that fear along with saving face is high on the Putin agenda.
Meanwhile Ukraine isn’t all that anxious to give up a chunk of their country even one with a huge Russian ethnic population, they fear that peace might give time for Russia to reset rearm and have another go, plus frankly Zelensky and his pals have been making out like the bandits they are from the grift that comes from western aid. His decision to stay and oppose Russia may have paid off for Ukraine as a nation but it’s paid off big time for him personally. If the war ends so does the gravy train.
In the end however the Ukrainians can’t win a war of attrition and the longer it goes on the better the chance Russia might actually have a 2nd go at Kiev or that NATO & or US troops end up being thrown in the fray.
In short the war is now pretty much become a body and money pit, and unless it ends the potential for someone to do something stupid to generate a wider war or a bigger crises keeps increasing.
So how do yo solve the problem of Russia not wanting to lose face and Ukraine wanting to drive them out?
The problem is in fact simple: SELL RUSSIA THE DONBAS REGION!
The Price can be set very high high enough to mask what will in effect be reparations for the invasion. The folks concerned about the cut off of their graft have little need to worry as the rebuilding costs will be considerable with a lot of money to be skimmed off the top from the coming western aid. Meanwhile both Ukrainian and Russian conscripts who are dying by the ton can get out of this alive and rebuild their lives while Drone technology can give early warning if Russia starts to prepare for a second Round OR if Ukraine decides to try to take the sold region back.
This is the best and simplest way to end the war. Won’t please everyone but the alternative is that this war eventually ends will Russia troops in Kiev or NATO troops in Moscow and the price of either of those options is too terrible to contemplate.
Sell the Russians Donbas and let’s move on.
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