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…in the Sherlock Holmes story Silverblaze The Left bank of the Charles notes the something missing in an old e-mail that he received before the election.
Might I suggest to the person he is referring to that she read about Tip O’Neill specifically page 65 of Tip O’Neill and the Democratic Century (my Amazon review from 2001 here)
“The soldiers like the thin mints.” said the girl scout when asked and the rest nodded. The thin mints joined the box on the side of the table where people buying cookies for the troops put them. As the girls took the money the two scout mothers, cold but uncomplaining, watched with approval as their troop plied their trade outside of the church.
“I was very surprised when he won.” said the taller of the pair and her fellow nodded in agreement. A native of the midwest who settled in Massachusetts after marriage, she was surprised at how democratic and liberal her new home was. Usually on election days her husband and herself voted the same side. This time however her spouse supported Republican Scott Brown.
Once the name was spoken the young scouts started talking about how cool they thought he was. This was in diametric opposition to the two leaders both of whom cast votes for Martha Coakley on the 19th.
The kids interest was not unique, at the school where she works the students reaction pleasantly surprised her. “The 8th grade students were really excited by the election.” she noted, “I had never seen them interested in any election in the past.” Like her own household the support was divided by gender. The Boys liked Brown and the girls were for Coakley, but it was their attention to the race that pleased her most.
Other Coakley supporters also expressed surprise: “I can’t see how he can credibly support the Massachusetts Healthcare plan and oppose the national one when they are basically the same thing.” said a 40 something system tech preparing for a night of Dungeons & Dragons. Another man who voted Coakley at the same game thought it odd that democrats would vote against their party “…because someone doesn’t play nice?”
Yet that was the very sentiment of a 30 something mother at the butcher shop who changed her mind on election day. It was the non stop negative ads that finally turned her away from the Candidate that only 4 days before she had supported happily to my face.
The Coakley voters surprise existed among Brown supporters as well, unable to convince themselves that their candidate would overcome the power of the Massachusetts Democratic Machine. When asked what they thought made the difference in the end, there was one constant answer. “I don’t think the heath care plan is a good idea”, expressed a Brown supporting woman at the local bakery. That sentiment was repeated over and over by voters on both sides. Martha Coakley’s unwavering support for its passage was costly and the President’s appearance only emphasized that fatal support.
Yet consider: Against an unexciting candidate supporting the most unpopular position of an administration declining in popularity, a strong dynamic candidate with a solid background, a personable touch to delivering a positive appealing message only managed 52% of the vote. Photoshops and victory parties not withstanding he needs to take that number to heart.
With only 2 years till he is up for election the question becomes: With healthcase resolved by then, how can Scott Brown win that majority when he faces a more prepared candidate running a better campaign? What will he have to do to persuade voters who voted for him once (and those he who didn’t) to pull the lever for him a 2nd time?
Among the gamers they accepted that he wouldn’t be supporting the healthcare bill that he so vigorously opposed but their issue was the Republican Caucus. “If he is just going to vote in lockstep with the Republicans to block everything he can’t get my vote.” (they might take heart from this story from the Herald today).
For most, both Brown and Coakley people the answer was the same. “If he can fulfill his promises he can win my vote” said the shorter of our Girl Scout Leaders. The mother of 4 thought he deserved a chance to see what he can do, expressing hope that the election would persuade democrats statewide to be more attentive to the people and less in lockstep with the Boston Machine. Her fellow agreed on both counts as did the woman in the Bakery and her husband. “He has to follow through.” she declared saying it’s one thing to promise changes, it’s another to actually make them happen.
The question really becomes a matter of voter perception. Will they see him for what he is: a junior senator of the minority party with one vote among 100, or will they imbue upon him all the hopes and dreams for a different direction in Washington? If they see the former then he is likely to succeed, if the latter then they likely will be disappointed.
However I suspect one person at least will not be. When asked what she will need from Scott Brown to earn her vote a second time our last minute decider answered with a single word: Integrity!
Some things are worth repeating. Particularly when you see stories like this:
The White House is evaluating whether to take a breather on health care or try to push for passing legislation, but is not convinced Massachusetts voters were trying to block health insurance reform by voting last week to send Republican Scott Brown to the U.S. Senate, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Sunday. emphasis mine.
Oh really? Lets take the wayback machine to Aug 17th of last year:
Unless he knows about a special election that the rest of us don’t there are still only 40 Republican votes in the senate and the house has a very large democratic majority. Republicans can’t kill any bill the democrats are willing to pass.
What Mr. Carville wants is cover for his members and the ability to share the blame. If his people really believed this was the right thing to do they would do it. They want cover for this lemon, the Republicans won’t give it so he is trying to make lemonade.
Ironically 9 days later Ted Kennedy was dead and I wrote:
I think that Joe Kennedy or another one of the clan will be put in at that time, I can’t see them risking an election as the environment has never been better for a Republican.
I was wrong about Joe but righter about the environment than I knew.
At the end of August it was noted:
Anyone who thinks that blue dog house members are going to protect their seats by voting in memory of Ted Kennedy is insane…so naturally the New York Times and Washington Post will likely think so.
But the actual congressmen are not that stupid, they know their districts and can count. In 14-15 months Kennedy will still be dead, but the voters who oppose Obamacare will still be alive and voting.
Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is expected to announce his retirement tomorrow morning, according to three sources briefed on the decision.
Berry will become the sixth Democrat in a competitive seat to leave in the last two months but the first to announce his retirement since the party’s special election loss in Massachusetts last Tuesday.
These blue dog dems see the writing on the wall and are heading for the hills. The only reason they were able to get the votes in November was the combination of Stupak (for pro-life cover) and the argument that the bill could be amended in conference. When the initial bill passed the House the last line of my oft updated post was:
Congratulations to the Republican Party for their almost certain election victory coming in 2010.
In the Senate it took breaking rules to get the bill passed (by exactly 60 votes) before Christmas.
And yet last night on his radio show I heard Jimmy Myers say this:
Scott Brown’s election will not stop a Healthcare bill. Healthcare is not dead. Republicans passed all kinds of bills with 55 votes in the Bush years (this is a paraphrase I was driving and couldn’t write it down exactly)
Let me say it one more time:
The democrats KNOW both health care bills are Lemons that serve their own special interests groups over the people they claim to be helping. If they thought for one moment that these bills were good or the country and/or a political winner, they would have passed them and eagerly took the full credit.
If it wasn’t for their initial desire to give the president a victory it never would have managed an initial vote. Now that the president’s numbers are nosediving political survival has overridden President Obama’s needs. Anyone who thinks Nancy Pelosi is going to give up her decreasing chance to retain the speakership for this president is delusional.
As long as Republicans stay united and realize that the worm has turned and the WhiteHouse doesn’t discover my unsaid strategy this is not only going nowhere, but every day they keep this in the news they undercut themselves politically and emphasize their own impotency.
Update: Allahpundit is wrong, Gingrich should know better than this.
Update: And another one bites the dust:
Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden, son of Vice President Joe Biden, e-mailed supporters on Monday morning to say that he will not seek his father’s Senate seat.
Barack Obama is the gift that keeps on giving…to republicans.
But don’t worry democrats; Mr. Sullivan insists you pay no attention to the failures of the man behind the teleprompter.
Needham Ma 7:58 a.m.
Exactly one week before the lot was overflowing. It was necessary to find a parking place far from the door resulting in a run back to the car when we saw then candidate Scott Brown leave for a press conference.
It was here at the phone banks where we saw what seemed a continuous stream of volunteers from all over the state and some from beyond anxious to help. On that first day we ran into a group from Michigan ready to get to work for the candidate they supported, but there just wasn’t room for them to even enter the office.
Today the parking lot had plenty of spaces and the regular tenants didn’t have to compete to get a close one. The frenzy of activity and the crowds were gone but there was still a gentleman at the desk politely but firmly protecting the office and providing the same security that he did during the campaign in other locations.
As I sat with him a man who worked for the building owners came in. I asked him about the difference a week made, he contrasted the relative quiet today with the energy of the place when this office and another one upstairs were rented by the Scott Brown campaign. The tenants had seen the people and the candidate and liked what they had saw. “It was very exciting time.” he said, “They all felt like they were part of it.” The office smoker had the best view. Most of the year he would find himself alone outside satisfying his nicotine fix. Over the last week his trips outside meant that he had plenty of company for a change.
That feeling of being part of it was shared at Mighty Subs a few blocks down the street. All during yesterday customers came in talking about the election, how they voted and how happy the result had made them (with very few exceptions). Arthur (the owner) commented how he had gotten an e-mail at the web site from some person from Free Republic thanking them for supporting Scott Brown.
At this moment his wife Karen came to the front to say hello. She was excited and happy about the Brown victory but was curious about that e-mail. I explained that the e-mail came from Stacy’s McCain’s stories featuring her. When she learned her photo was on the net her priceless reaction brought a smile to my face.
It was Karen who told us how personable he was as a customer long before he decided to run, and it was that sense of personal retail politics in the tradition of Tip O’Neill that made a difference.
Back at the headquarters there was contractor spreading ice melt in front of the entrance way just as I was preparing to leave. When asked about the election he was pleased with the results. The Senator represented his district before in the State Senate and had dealt with him on some local matters. He expounded on what a good guy he was and how he always gave him his ear. His previous votes as a democrat had been for Ted Kennedy but now Scott Brown was his senator and he was very happy about it. When asked if another candidate with similar views would have gotten his vote, he thought about it for a moment before saying “Probably not, knowing him made all the difference”
His reaction reminded me of three twenty something Coakley supporters that I talked to on the Red Line as we left the Obama rally on Sunday. They had come from Kansas and Oklahoma as AmeriCorps volunteers and had found themselves in Massachusetts, a state that matched their liberalism. As liberals they decided to help support their candidate with their signs since they could not with their votes.
In the Red states where they lived Massachusetts had a very particular image. They heard people weren’t friendly and their opinions were painted with a broad liberal brush. They found that people were very friendly and willing to talk just about anything. The more they got to know people the more they got to like both the people and the place where their work had taken them erasing the painted image with personal experience.
It was that same type of personal touch that Scott Brown brought to his candidacy taking away characture the left leaning media had tried to paint him with, allowing him to turn a 30 point deficit into a 5 point victory. The people of Massachusetts got to know him and that made all the difference.
Update: The Lonely Conservative links and directly says what this post hints at:
There are quite a few days between now and the election in November. GOP candidates – it’s time to hit the road.
The better you know the people you want to represent the better you will represent them.
Update: Camp of the Saints links to me and several other good posts on the aftermath of the election. Worth a read.
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