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Econ 101

Posted: February 27, 2024 by chrisharper in Uncategorized
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By Christopher Harper

Joe Biden complained recently about “shrinkflation,” when consumer products become smaller in quantity, size, or weight while their prices stay the same or increase.

“Some companies are trying to pull a fast one by shrinking the products little by little and hoping you won’t notice,” said Biden, who called for the companies to stop the practice.

Here’s a classic example of why it happens at a local eatery near my home. When Ingrid Callenberger, the co-owner of The Tria Prima in Williamsport, Pennsylvania, went to place her regular sugar order in mid-February, she was startled by a near-double price increase.

“I knew it was going to happen, but then it happened, and I wasn’t prepared,” Callenberger said. “I felt a lot of panic because the train keeps going. We can’t stop to figure this out.”

Small businesses like The Tria Prima, which serves tea and sweets, have limited business choices.

“Because we’re so small, we can’t afford to buy at volume. Sometimes I don’t order for three months,” she said. Buying larger portions would reduce costs, but the goods could spoil before use.

Callenberger said she believes in supporting small producers, so she buys bulk sugar from smaller-scale companies, not industry giants like Domino Foods. Turning toward alternative sugars like maple syrup and honey is an appealing but pricey move, and using less sugar would limit the variety of products the business can offer.

When goods and shipping costs increase, retail prices must rise, Callenberger said. “When we have to charge more, we’ll charge more.” To support the consumer, The Tria Prima may maintain prices but switch to smaller portions or shrinkflation.

Callenberger said she fears unpredictable market changes will force small businesses like hers to shutter. “We’re fighting something bigger than us to keep going.”

A litmus test for Biden

Posted: February 20, 2024 by chrisharper in Uncategorized
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By Christopher Harper

Deep within the bowels of The New York Times website is a blueprint of why Joe Biden is in trouble.

It took me a long time to track the analysis down because it got virtually no play on the Times’ opening web page. Maybe that’s because it shows how badly Biden is doing in the eyes of voters throughout the country.

The Times Opinion focus group included 13 undecided, independent voters. “To a striking degree, most of the participants tilted toward Mr. Trump, even though they disliked his personality,” the analysis offered.

“Almost all the voters (who range in age from 22 to 64) were most worried about the economy and how their groceries and other bills were too costly. Some were also deeply troubled by the crisis at the southern border, and some were concerned about the Israel-Gaza war and disliked U.S. aid to other countries,” the report continued.

When asked to describe Biden, the participants seemed particularly worried about his age and competence, using words like “senile” and “unfit.”

“I keep hearing the government say that things are getting better. I’d like to know who they’re asking, because I don’t see the economy getting better. I see us spending more money in our households, in the government. Here in New Hampshire, it’s never been this bad, ever,” said Robin, a 59-year-old retiree from New Hampshire. “They’re spending billions and billions of dollars on stuff that I don’t understand. Where is that going?”

Natalie, a 22-year-old college student in New Jersey, agreed. “I wanted to get my master’s, but it’s like I’m never going to be able to afford it. Where is the government’s money going? It should be going toward stuff like education. I’m never going to see loan forgiveness. I just see myself in debt forever.”

Twelve of the 13 participants said they viewed the economy as the most important issue in the election, while one chose the crisis in Israel and Gaza.

But the focus group also underlined some fundamental issues that Biden faces, particularly among ethnic groups that traditionally support Democrats.

For example, Yalena, a 22-year-old stay-at-home mom in Alabama, described Biden as “disingenuous.” Yalena, a Latina, added: ”I don’t feel like I’m being told the truth. I don’t feel like I’m being told anything upfront. I was just so disappointed — with the ounce of hope I had left — when we just started pouring money into the Israel conflict.”

Although Henry, a 60-year-old black consultant from Georgia, said he plans to vote for Biden, the president is “not inspiring at all.”

Gary, a 64-year-old driving instructor in Michigan, said he plans to vote for Trump but had some advice for the former president: “Stay off Twitter.”

Although the general election is months off, I hope DaTimes continues taling to this set of people who seem to have a better grasp of the state of the country than all of the pundits and talking heads combined.

Escaping today through tales of yesteryear

Posted: February 13, 2024 by chrisharper in Uncategorized
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By Christopher Harper

I’ve found an antidote to the swirling morass of bad news and vibes in current affairs. I’ve started reading a variety of books—both fiction and fact—about even worse times in history.

Author Bernard Cornwell provides an incredible array of terrible tales.

I just finished a quartet of books, The Grail Quest, which follows the trials and tribulations of an English archer, Thomas of Hookton, during the Hundred Years’ War between England and France in the 14th Century. In the books, the English are ravaging and raping their way through Frances, including some of the bloodiest battles I have ever read. Two of his women die, and another is blinded. He’s excommunicated from the church as a heretic, and his village has been destroyed.

At the time, the Catholic Church was corrupt and split between Avignon, France, and Rome. The plague has killed one-third of the European population. Much of the population lives under corrupt counts and lords.

In the books, Thomas, the bastard son of an English priest, becomes entangled in the search for the grail, the cup used at the Last Supper. He runs into cardinals and kings who are trying to find the grail. Eventually, he locates the grail and tosses it into the sea because of all the evil it has wrought.

If you think times are tough now, you wouldn’t survived England or France in the 1300s!

Another book, The Wager by David Grann, puts today’s troubles into perspective. The nonfiction book isn’t about a bet but an English ship called by the name.

The ship left England in 1740 on a secret mission to capture a Spanish ship during a war between the two countries. En route, The Wager was wrecked on a remote island off the coast of South America. There, roughly 100 men divide themselves into three groups: those who follow the captain, those who follow the first mate, and those who follow neither. Many sailors die from starvation or extreme weather. 

Amazingly, each of the three groups sees some of the followers make it back to civilization, where some are considered mutineers, and the captain is a murderer for shooting one of them without due process. 

As accusations of treachery and murder flew, the government convened a court martial to determine who was telling the truth. The stakes were life and death—for whomever the court found guilty could hang. 

The final rulings reflect the desire of nearly all governments to put some sort of spin on what events happened and what they mean. 

Happy escape to historical reality!

Extinction vs. hope

Posted: February 6, 2024 by chrisharper in Uncategorized
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By Christopher Harper

Extinction panic. That’s the latest worry that The New York Times says we must be concerned about. 

Tyler Austin Harper, an assistant professor of environmental studies at Bates College in Maine, writes an extensive analysis in DaTimes:

“What makes an extinction panic a panic is the conviction that humanity is flawed and beyond redemption, destined to die at its own hand, the tragic hero of a terrestrial pageant for whom only one final act is possible. The irony, of course, is that this cynicism — and the unfettered individualism that is its handmaiden — greases the skids to calamity. After all, why bother fighting for change or survival if you believe that self-destruction is hard-wired into humanity?”

Harper [no relation] blames politicians left and right for what he calls “doom-mongering.” He writes: “One way to understand extinction panics is as elite panics: fears created and curated by social, political, and economic movers and shakers during times of uncertainty and social transition. Extinction panics are, in both the literal and the vernacular senses, reactionary, animated by the elite’s anxiety about maintaining its privilege in the midst of societal change. Today, it’s politicians, executives, and technologists.” 

He cites several potential sources for extinction worries: Middle East war, “climate anxiety,” artificial intelligence, and China. “Climate is driving new fields in psychology, experimental therapies, and debates about what a recent New Yorker article called “the morality of having kids in a burning, drowning world.” 

Only once you dig into the analysis does Harper finally show his cards. His solution to extinction panic is to give the government more power. 

“We have gotten into the dangerous habit of outsourcing big issues — space exploration, clean energy, A.I., and the like — to private businesses and billionaires,” Harper argues. “We need ambitious, well-resourced government initiatives and international cooperation that takes A.I. and other existential risks seriously.”

After COVID, people may be even more prone to worry about extinction and perhaps turn to the government for solutions. 

I hope people remember just how badly that solution worked!

Instead of wringing one’s hands, I suggest that people read a few books about faith and hope. Education scholar James Fraser has one that fits the bill.

Fraser’s History of Hope chronicles “American history through the stories of the individuals and movements that dreamed of a better future and then took action to make that dream a reality, arguing that the much-heralded American spirit was not born as a gift of our founding, but was forged through our adversity and triumphs.”

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