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Today is Ash Wednesday and the Beginning of Lent.

As we enter this Holy Season at a time of tumult and war let us remember today’s first reading at Mass and approach the day with hope:

Even now, says the LORD,
            return to me with your whole heart,
            with fasting, and weeping, and mourning;
Rend your hearts, not your garments,
            and return to the LORD, your God.
For gracious and merciful is he,
            slow to anger, rich in kindness,
            and relenting in punishment.
Perhaps he will again relent
            and leave behind him a blessing,
Offerings and libations
            for the LORD, your God.

Blow the trumpet in Zion!
            proclaim a fast,
            call an assembly;
Gather the people,
            notify the congregation;
Assemble the elders,
            gather the children
            and the infants at the breast;
Let the bridegroom quit his room
            and the bride her chamber.
Between the porch and the altar
            let the priests, the ministers of the LORD, weep,
And say, “Spare, O LORD, your people,
            and make not your heritage a reproach,
            with the nations ruling over them!
Why should they say among the peoples,
            ‘Where is their God?’”

Then the LORD was stirred to concern for his land
            and took pity on his people.

There are many great word in the Old Testament but for my money there are no words more meaningful and more hopeful for all of mankind than these words from the 2nd Chapter of the book of Joel

May we take them to heart

To the American Media and the Biden Administration (but I repeat myself) the War in Ukraine is a disaster, not because of the invasion, the loss of life, the human suffering and the violation of borders but because it has exposed to the entire world the weakness, fecklessness and incompetence that 81 million Americans supposedly voted for.

At the state of the Union address with Democrats facing electoral disaster even before this happen Biden is going to have to go up that and somehow try to look strong and paint a positive picture while all of this is going on. I suspect he will do a lot of waving the Ukrainian flag and talking about standing tough against Russia while at the same time doing all he can to keep America from returning to it’s energy independent days of the Trump administration which is the one way to actually checkmate Putin.

In short the Biden Administration needs an out. Fortunately for them Putin is in a position to provide them with one if he so chooses.

I submit and suggest that Putin’s base plan involved the two breakaway republics in the Ukrainian west east but seeing the Biden administrations’ weak response choose to roll the dice for the whole shebang and undo the government install in an Obama supported coup back in 2014.

Stronger than expected resistance from Ukrainians combined with a stronger than expected response from a surprisingly united Europe have become complications for Russia. As I noted yesterday the military facts on the ground might override those problems but if the cost gets to high Putin has one card that he can play at any time.

Putin can choose to make a deal whereby Russian troops move out of Ukraine Proper while staying in the two break away western sections. This would be a Godsend for Biden as it would not only give him the chance to claim a diplomatic success (albeit of a mess of his own making) but it would guarantee that the various corrupt activities that he and his family have been involved with in Ukraine stay off the radar.

Meanwhile Putin would have picked up what he wanted in the first place and would still have an army in a position to try again if he so chooses at a later date and of course the Ukrainians can claim a victory as well particularly as they had no prospect of chasing the Russians out of the west anyways.

This card is in Putin’s hand and can be played anytime the wild card is will a Europe now worried about Putin decide to play along?

If you asked me two weeks ago I would have said “yes” without hesitation it remains to see if they’ve been woken beyond their ability to go back to their days of slumber I mean cripes Germany is rearming (and amazingly that doesn’t seem to worry anyone).

Update: I accidently typed west when I meant east on the breakaway republics, thanks to the reader who spotted the error.

I offer thee Lord Jesus this eighth decade in honor of the Proclamation of the Kingdom of Heaven and I ask of thee through this mystery and through the intercession of thy Holy Mother the ability to see the works of God all around us

The introduction I use when praying the 3rd Mystery of Light of the Rosary

Let me direct you to something from the Original Bill James Baseball Abstract concerning Joe Morgan and pitchouts which never seemed to work on him:

An announcer asked him about it one time—this was years ago and I’m paraphrasing the answer as I remember it–but as I recall he said that somebody would always give it away, and usually you could pick up three or four clues. The pitcher would not throw over to first like he usually would, or he’d look at you a little bit different, or he’d rush the delivery home or the first baseman or second baseman would try to cheat toward the bag. or the catcher would look down at you right before giving the signal or would set himself up a little different so he could get up and throw. He said once you picked up on one thing you would look for the others and you’d see them too. I used to play cards with a guy like that. He’s read your eyes and knew what you had. Drive You Crazy

The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract 1995 P349

What does that have to do with the price of tea in China? Well Fifty two years ago or so at the Vatican some priest, or Bishop or Cardinal involved with the making of the New Roman Missal for the mass was composing opening prayers for the mass for every single day of the year. Occasionally the same opening prayer would be used on multiple days. Here is the opening prayer that was composed to be used from the Sunday before Ash Wednesday to the Tuesday before the feast:

Grant us oh Lord we pray
that the course of the world
may be directed by your peaceful rule
and that your Church may rejoice
untroubled in her devotion.
Through our Lord Jesus Christ, your son
Who lives and reigns with you in the Unity of the Holy Spirit
One God forever and ever, Amen!

This prayer was said at every Sunday mass yesterday and at every daily mass today and will be prayed at every daily mass tomorrow before Ash Wednesday which the Pope has asked the faithful to be a day of prayer and fasting for peace.

Now to those who have trained themselves to be blind to the works of God in their midst it’s a complete coincidence that a prayer written over five decades ago might be appropriate for the situation today.

But to the faithful who like Joe Morgan could see what was happening around him, it’s yet another example of the providence of God providing man with what they need just when they need it.

And like Joe Morgan once you pick up on this you’ll be surprised at what you see and notice all around you..

Six Things to Keep in Mind Concerning Ukraine and Russia

Posted: February 28, 2022 by datechguy in war
Tags: , ,

Getting invaded doesn’t confer sainthood:

As noted at the Tablet (via Instapundit) Ukraine is knee deep in corruption of both the Biden and Obama administrations (the latter who put it in power. Being corrupt in financial and other matters does not preclude being brave and patriotic in others so keep this in mind when you react.

A Nation fighting for it’s life isn’t going to prioritize facts over survival

As I noted two days ago both Russia and the Ukraine have a vested interest in spreading a message favorable to their cause. Depriving Russia of that ability in the west or in Europe does not mean Ukraine is not going to do it’s best to spin news. This of course is a perfectly legitimate tactic in a war, particularly when a nation is fighting for it’s life against one of the world great powers but we should be very careful about simply believing everything we hear over the next few days.

The Media has Suddenly not become Honest or credible

A second thing to consider concerning the War in Ukraine is the media. There is no reason to suddenly attribute credibility and/or honesty to US or international media when they have spend decades demonstrating their dishonesty and lack of credibility. American media in particular are going to do their best to protect this administration for any responsibility for it’s failures of diplomacy and helping to create the conditions for this war. That’s been their primary concern for years and I see no reason why a war would change this, in fact I suspect they will do their best to not: “let this crisis go to waste.”

The End of the War will not be the end of it:

As Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire for a century before anyone heard of the Soviet Union the problems there will remain no matter how this ends. There is a large Russian minority in Ukraine and short of them migrating out it is going to remain there. How that minority is treated after the war is over if the Ukrainian government stands or how that minority treats ethnic Ukrainians if the Russians win will be a significant human rights issue that is going to be a real problem when it’s all over. (Side note to a lesser degree this is a common problem in former eastern bloc nations and likely drives Russia’s policy more than we in the west understand).

Both Europe and Russia will look at this differently than folks in the US

There is a famous exchange in the US Senate last century where someone noted to Richard Russell (D-GA) a hawk on defense hat the south was very military minded. Russell replied to the effect that if Sherman had marched through your state you’d be military minded too. This is in play both in Putin’s Moves and in Europe’s sudden willingness to make a unified response. In each of the last two centuries Russia has been invaded by the premiere military power of the day with the intent to conquer it. Meanwhile while there are very few left in Europe who served in World War two there are still plenty who remember living in the rubble of it trying to survive and the memory of being under the Soviet’s thumb during the cold war is very much in the living memory of those in Poland, the Baltic States and the other unwilling client states of the old Soviet Union. Dealing with Russia without taking that history into account would is a grave error with a competent administration, with this load of idiots it could be fatal, likewise Putin failure to take into account the reaction of a Europe suddenly facing a war without strong leadership from the US might actually undo all the subtle moves he has made for decades to emasculate the European West.

In the end it will all come down to will

No amount of writing, opinions, speeches or seeds brought to embassies is going to change the bottom line military facts on the ground and those facts depend on military reality not speeches by pols and Pundits and the two key realities have been pointed out by Stacy McCain who as usual has gotten to the the heart of the matter:

  1. If the Russians can fly in reinforcements rather than having to go in on the ground the entire game changes:

What I eventually concluded was that Russians were still in control at Gostomel or, at least, that the Ukrainian counterattack had not “destroyed” the Russian paratrooper force (as had been claimed), and when I woke up Friday, it was clear that not only had the Russian paratroopers held on, but that they were being reinforced, as helicopters were seen flying in low over the area. The most definitive report I found was from the Wall Street Journal:

Russian forces pouring in from neighboring Belarus through the Chernobyl nuclear disaster exclusion zone reached the outskirts of Kyiv. They took over the Hostomel airfield following an airborne assault on Thursday, and by Friday morning Russian armored forces reached the area. Heavy combat continued through the day, and Ukrainian troops blew up several bridges leading into Kyiv from the northwest.

If this is correct, then a Russian armored column has now reached Gostomel, so it’s no longer just paratroopers holding the airfield, which means that soon the Russians will be flying in all kinds of equipment, and this is less than 20 miles from downtown Kyiv.

2. If Kyiv (or Kiev as I’ve always known it) is encircled then it’s only a matter of time

Ukrainian resistance is still fierce and effective, and the Russians have failed to take Kyiv. On the other hand, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, the city is now “encircled” by Russian forces — i.e., the invaders control all the routes into the city. Kyiv is now besieged, in other words, and such affairs do not usually end well for the defenders. Western talk of sending military aid to Ukraine is thus rather belated, if there is no feasible way to deliver these materials to the Ukrainians now holed up in their capital.

I find it highly unlikely that Polish armor will suddenly appear to relieve the city nor do I think that the moves in place will be enough to change Putin’s mind. It comes down to this. If Putin has encircled Kyiv he can starve out the city which means it falls. That’s not going to stop resistance in fact it could become Afghanistan on steroids meaning that a Russian military victory followed by the installation of a pro-Putin government, while hell for Ukrainians might bleed Russia for years in a way a defeat might not

The real question is who will blink first Putin or the West. Presuming the City doesn’t fall this week that’s what it really comes down to and unlike the West Putin has a built in out but that’s a post for tomorrow.