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The Tom Brady Tampa Bay Bucks Expectations Game

Posted: March 20, 2020 by datechguy in Uncategorized

A few days ago I wrote about the new expectations that New England Patriots fans should have with Tom Brady no longer on their team. Now lets look at the expectations game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have now signed Tom Brady to a contract in keeping with his status as the greatest football player who has ever lived.

As we have demonstrated the New England Patriots were a team that in their 41 year history before Tom Brady came on the scene

  • Had a winning record 55% of the time
  • won 11 or more game (10 in a 14 game season) 14.6% of the time
  • won their division 12% of the time
  • made the playoffs 24% of the time
  • won a playoff game 9.7% of the time
  • went to a championship game 7% of the time winning 0%

but during the twenty years that Brady played for them

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • The Patriots won at least 12 games 70% of the time
  • The Patriots won their division & made the playoffs 90% of the time
  • The Patriots won at LEAST one playoff game 70% of the time
  • The Patriots went to the Superbowl 50% of the time
  • The Patriots WON the superbowl 30% of the time (67% of the times they went)

Let’s now look at the history of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tampa Bay entered the NFL as an expansion team in 1976 when the league played a 14 game season. Their 1st season was played in the AFC and they were moved to the NFC in their 2nd year In their 43 Years they have had

  • Had a winning record 30% of the time (13 seasons)
  • Won 11 or more games 7% of the time (3 seasons 1999,2002,2005)
  • Won their division 12% of the time (1970,1981, 1999,2002,2005,2007)
  • Made the playoffs 23% of the time (10 seasons)
  • Won at least 1 playoff game 9% of the time (1979,1997,1999,2002)
  • Won the Superbowl 2% (100% of the times they went 2002)

By an odd coincidence the year Tampa Bay won the Superbowl 2002 is the only year that Brady played a full season and failed to win at least 10 or make the playoffs.

In short while their percentage of winning seasons, 11 game seasons and superbowl appearances are about half the rate of the pre-Brady Patriots their rate of division wins, playoff appearances and winning at least one playoff game are almost identical

Given these status one should expect a dramatic improvement to this team with three caveats.

  1. Tom Brady’s stats with the Patriots include games played by him from ages 23-42
  2. All of Brady’s games with Tampa Bay will be played form age 43-45
  3. None of these games will be coached by Bill Belichick

As to the question of how much weight this should be given it’s worth noting that In three seasons Tom Brady has played at age 40 he has:

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • Won at least 12 games 67% of the time (at least 11 100%)
  • Won his division 100% of the time
  • Made the playoffs 100% of the time
  • Won at least 1 playoff game 67% of the time
  • Gone to the Superbowl 67% of the time
  • Won the Superbowl 33% of the time

During those three years Tampa Bay has

  • Had a losing record 100% of the time
  • Missed the playoffs 100% of the time

As for Bill Belichick in the two seasons with New England where he didn’t have Tom Brady at Quarterback he

  • Had a winning record 50% of the time
  • Won at least 12 games 0% of the time
  • Made the playoffs 9% of the time

So given these factors and the level of Tampa Bay at this time and the fact that he’s sharing a division with Drew Brees here is what if Brady signs with the Bucks for three years the expectations game should be.

  • Tampa Bay Should expect to have a winning record 100% of the time
  • Tampa Bay Should expect to win at least 10 games 67% of the time
  • Tampa Bay Should expect to make the playoffs 67% of the time
  • Tampa Bay Should expect to win at least one playoff game 67% of the time
  • They should expect to win their division at least 33% of the time
  • They should make the NFC Championship game at least once

Anything less that this would be in my opinion failure anything more than this would be gravy.

I suspect that Tampa Bay fans will expect better than me and if they aren’t in the NFC championship game by 2021 will be pissed.

The Patriots Post Tom Brady Expectations Game

Posted: March 19, 2020 by datechguy in nfl, Sports
Tags: , ,

The Tom Brady Era in New England has ended.

Although it was not known at the time the coming of Tom Brady to the New England Patriots was a sports earthquake, much like the coming of Babe Ruth to the Yankees in Baseball or Bill Russell to the Celtics in Basketball or Wayne Gretzky to Edmonton in Hockey.

In all of these cases it was quickly established that the coming of said superstar meant that the franchise in question was now considered the prohibitive favorite to win the championship in their sport.

And with the exception of the Yankees who amazingly thanks to the coming of Lou Gehrig during the Ruth Era and Joe DiMaggio during the Gehrig Era and Mickey Mantle & Yogi Berra during the DiMaggio era in succession kept those high exceptions post Ruth the departure of Brady means a re-evaluation of the expectation for both the Patriots and for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Let’s start with the New England Patriots.

The New England Patriots began playing in 1960 and played with a quarterback other than Tom Brady starting games from that year though the year 2000. They played a 14 game schedule from 1960-1976 and a 16 game schedule since. The Patriots had a winning record in 22 out of those 41 seasons. Of those 22 winning seasons the teams best pre Brady Years in terms of wins were as follows

  • 1964 10-3-1
  • 1976 11-3
  • 1978 11-5
  • 1985 11-5
  • 1986 11-5
  • 1996 11-5

During that period these were the years that they won their division

1963, 1978, 1986, 1996, 1997

During that period these are the years they made the playoffs

1963, 1976, 1978, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998

Of those playoff years these are the years they won at least one playoff game

1963, 1985,1996,1997

During that period these were the years they made it to the Superbowl or the AFL Championship game pre-superbowl

1963, 1985, 1996

They never won a championship

So as you can see over 41 years the aNew England / Boston Patriots

  • Had a winning record 55% of the time
  • won 11 or more game (10 in a 14 game season) 14.6% of the time
  • won their division 12% of the time
  • made the playoffs 24% of the time
  • won a playoff game 9.7% of the time
  • went to a championship game 7% of the time winning 0%

Tom Brady took over as the Patriots starting QB during the 2001 season and remained the starting QB through the 2019 season. During that 20 year period these are the season where they did NOT win at least 12 games

  • 2001 11-5 (partial Brady Season)
  • 2002 9-7
  • 2005 10-6
  • 2008 11-5 (Brady injured game 1 out for season)
  • 2009 10-6
  • 2018 11-5

These are the seasons during the Brady years that the Patriots did NOT win their division or make the playoffs

2002, 2008

These are the seasons during the Brady years that the Patriots dd NOT win a playoff game

2002,2008,2009,2010, 2019

These are the seasons during the Brady years that the Patriots did NOT go to the Superbowl

2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010,2012,2013, 2015, 2019

So lets sum up during the Tom Brady Years

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • The Patriots won at least 12 games 70% of the time
  • The Patriots won their division & made the playoffs 90% of the time
  • The Patriots won at LEAST one playoff game 70% of the time
  • The Patriots went to the Superbowl 50% of the time
  • The Patriots WON the superbowl 30% of the time (67% of the times they went)

Or to put it another way, the best New England/Boston Patriots seasons in their pre-Brady years would be considered failures during the Brady years and their three appearances in the Superbowl/Championship would all be rated at best disappointments in the Brady era.

Now the Tom Brady Era has officially ended which means that unless Jarrett Stidham or any quarterback that they draft this season turns into the 2nd coming of Lou Gehrig logically our expectations for Patriots should return to a pre-Brady level to wit.

Any year that the New England Patriots post Brady:

  • Have a winning record: should be considered OK
  • Win 11 games: should be considered a success
  • Win their division: should be considered a big success
  • Make the playoffs: should considered a huge success.
  • Win a playoff game: should be considered an spectacular success
  • Go to the Superbowl: should be considered an extraordinary success
  • Win a Superbowl: should be considered a Miracle

Now there are those who consider that a fair amount of Tom Brady’s success in general and the Patriots success in particular should be given to Coach Bill Belichick who some consider the greatest coach in Football history. For those of you who consider this the case let’s make a slight adjustment.

Any year the New England Patriots Under Belichick post Brady

  • Win a Superbowl, it’s an extraordinary success
  • Go to the Superbowl it’s a spectacular success
  • Win a playoff game it’s a Huge success
  • Make the playoffs, it’s a big success
  • Win their division, it’s a success
  • Win at least 11 games, it’s an OK season
  • Win less than 11 games…fire the bum!

These are reasonable expectations. I suspect that Patriots fans after two decades of winning will not be as generous as me with their expectations.

The “Hooray You’re Not Dead!” Song Wuhan/Corona Virus Variant

Posted: March 18, 2020 by datechguy in oddities

Two years ago sick of the boring “Happy Birthday to you Song” I wrote a birthday song for DaWife called “Hooray You’re not Dead.”

Well her birthday has come again and given all the Wuhan / Corona Virus panic these day I have made a variant that you can sing to anyone (consider this a replacement for the “A Very Merry Unbirthday to You” song if it’s not your birthday) As before this is sung to the tune of Three blind Mice

The Hooray you’re not dead (from the Corona/Wuhan Virus) song

 ♫ Hooray you’re not Dead!
Hooray you’re not dead!
You haven’t died yet!
You haven’t died yet! ♫

♫Corona's come and you’re still here
But the future isn’t exactly clear
So let’s raise a glass and give a cheer
Hooray your not dead!♫

I’m here all week, try the veal.

Cows, Trees, Taps, Chocolate & Wuhan/Corona Virus Update

Posted: March 18, 2020 by datechguy in American Success Stories, culture, News/opinion
Tags: , , ,

Yesterday I had to get up early to take my son who is going to be on 11 straight days at Market Basket to work for 6:30 so I spun down to church for the 7 AM mass where I found out that that mass and the 8 AM mass would be the last in Fitchburg for a while (so I stayed for both) and swung by Market Basket.

I didn’t need milk so I didn’t go in that aisle but they had very little bottled water and a bit of toilet paper, the shelves were not full but you could get it. I bought a two liter bottle of diet Sunkist soda, a pair of cooked chicken breasts and a package of Hershey chocolates.

I really don’t understand the hoarding of Milk, Water and Toilet Paper

Four important facts

  • To the best of my knowledge Cows are still giving milk and there is no prospect of the Corona/Wuhan virus spreading to cows and stopping them from doing so. There is no prospect of the country’s milk supply to disappear.
  • Two thousand years ago the Romans were big on aqueducts that brought fresh flowing water to the cities. Today we not only have that capability in terms of indoor plumbing as standard equipment in homes and apartments, but we have waste water treatment plants to make sure said water is safe. To my knowledge the Corona/Wuhan virus has not affected either the water supplies or the faucets in peoples houses.
  • Unless there is a medical development I’m unaware of there is no evidence that the Corona / Wuhan virus has affected trees or saw blades or papermills. Furthermore thanks to industry tree farming there is an abundant supply of trees to make sure that we can make all the toilet paper we want.
  • Gas prices are dropping like a rock and Truckers continue to be on the road so the ability to transport milk, bottled water and toilet has not been impeded in the least.

These are all reasons not to hoard Milk, Water or Toilet Paper but if they are not enough to stop you from panic let me add one more fact.

I was able to buy chocolate today.

Now chocolate is a wonderful thing but when it comes down to it, it’s not a necessity. For most of human history chocolate was not available and in the last two thousand years I suspect more human have spent their lives without chocolate than with.

Yet the chocolate supply remains unimpeaded.

When I see supermarkets without chocolate and other items that are not vital THEN I’ll start thinking, hey maybe I should be worried.

But as long as I see Chocolate bunnies near the checkout and pastries galore in the Market Basket bakery I think I’ll decline to worry about where my next roll of toilet paper is coming from…and you should too.

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