Archive for the ‘elections’ Category

…it’s a sign of weakness in a swing district. In this he is reporting and repeating DCCC spin:

Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina firm, released a survey Monday showing Republican candidate Tim Burns leading Democratic candidate Mark Critz by only one point, 48 to 47. I noticed some conservative blogs reporting that Burns had “moved into the lead,” but that result actually represented a six-point bump for Critz and only a four-point bump for Burns since the last poll.

Somehow the Susquehanna poll showing Critz with a 6 point lead last week doesn’t fit into the template here.

The plan seems to be that if Critz wins it becomes a bellwether of how the republicans can’t win the races this year. The hotly contested senate race of national importance is apparently no excuse.

This is called laying the groundwork. And Todd & the Post are not the only players:

They blame the establishment, the insiders, the Beltway types, the incumbents—the people who are in charge. They tend on the whole to direct their ire at Democrats, because right now Democrats tend to be in positions of power. But for the most part their dissatisfaction is not ideological. They want someone who can make things better. And someone different is a start.

No matter what happens in tomorrow’s primaries—no matter who wins or who loses—this will be the message that voters are sending. Seriously. It won’t be about the Tea Party, or a progressive resurgence, or some new level of partisan polarization. It’ll be about plain old change.

although he underplays the ire at Democrats Newsweek’s Romano makes a point, if anyone read Newsweek they might even agree.

And it isn’t just today it has been throughout the cycle:

By preferring someone else to him, Pennsylvania Republicans had “forced out” Sen. Specter, Mr. Milbank said. If he loses to Mr. Sestak on Tuesday, will Mr. Milbank say Mr. Specter was “forced out” by Pennsylvania Democrats?

Will Ms. Vieira wonder out loud if a Specter defeat indicates the Democratic party “doesn’t have room for moderate voices?”

Will Mr. Matthews declare that Mr. Specter was the victim of a “Stalinesque purge?”

Meanwhile Brinkley sees the Dems playing the expectations game and talks about some strong reinforcements:

Lee is a “Gold Star Mother” whose son, a Navy SEAL, was killed in a 2006 firefight in Iraq. She praised Burns as “a candidate who understands and will uphold the Constitution and who recognizes the sacrifices our troops make.”

In the battle for Pennsylvania’s 12th District, Lee is one member of a veritable of army of volunteers fighting to elect a Republican to the seat held for more than three decades by the late Democrat John Murtha. For weeks, volunteers have stuffed envelopes, manned phone banks and walked precincts, and today they’ll make the final push to get their voters to the polls in a special election that many observers are calling a crucial test of whether the GOP can win back the House of Representatives in November.

I’ve met Debbie Lee twice, she is a powerful advocate. The question is will she be enough?

…even doing an expose on a front running democrat:

what is striking about Mr. Blumenthal’s record is the contrast between the many steps he took that allowed him to avoid Vietnam, and the misleading way he often speaks about that period of his life now, especially when he is speaking at veterans’ ceremonies or other patriotic events.

Sometimes his remarks have been plainly untrue, as in his speech to the group in Norwalk. At other times, he has used more ambiguous language, but the impression left on audiences can be similar.

Via this tweet by Joe Scarborough. Today Mika is talking about how he has done good work and has wanted this for years and how shocked she is about the story.

HotAir however is shocked that the NYT actually broke the story.

Credit where credit is due: No doubt it pained the NYT to drop a bomb on one of the few surefire Democratic winners this November, but they dropped it anyway.

Smitty is having none of it:

Why are we congratulating the NYT for doing the right thing? Should we as well give Blumenthal a medal for not firing a shot in a theater to which he apparently never deployed?

Smitty must still have scripture on his mind after our discussion yesterday and is remembering Luke 17:10b.

Bob Woodward is going on about what a good job and how relevant the NYT is. I think it really speaks volumes about the times that we expect so little from them that we cheer when they do their job.

Scarborough is talking about his prospects for recovering from this. They are going on about how he should handle it and how he could get though it. Sam Stein in particularly give him some defense but everyone is overlooking something important: His opponent’s real military record

Closing thought, how far has the times fallen for us to be so excited by them doing their job?

Update: Mika is really pained looking at these quotes as he knows and likes the guy and came out and said so. Her reaction and the reality of it has to be seen. She sang the praises of his record, but she is having none of the spin. It’s one of the reasons I like her, she is too honest to try to spin this any other way. Sam Stein however is spinning like mad comparing Cheney to Blumenthal. To my knowledge Cheney never misrepresented his record. On the advice of my wife I will not describe him with the adjective he deserves.

Update 2: Ruby Slippers talks about the implosion

I’ve been mentioning how Morning Joe and Politico et/al seemed to have suddenly discovered Pa-12 when the polls were trending in their direction:

the plan apparently is to set the race now that the polls favor the dems as a possible or probable loss, so if they win, it becomes a HUGE win for democrats and if they lose, well it was a tight race in a conservative district. This is spin.

This weekend I touched on SEIU money and Mark Critz having to worry about Scott Brown being in the house, but I hit the sack without seeing Brinkley’s Robert Stacy’s latest post reporting on the latest poll, quite a difference:

The special election to replace John Murtha looks to be headed for a photo finish, with Republican Tim Burns leading Democrat Mark Critz 48-47 in PPP’s final poll of the race.

And Stacy had this to say about the numbers:

Sestak’s surge in the Senate race is the probably the only reason Critz isn’t trailing significantly in PA-12. In early April, a Quinnipiac poll showed Specter leading by 21 points and Sestak trailed in every poll through the end of April. Five of the six most recent polls, however, show Sestak leading, so Democrats have a lot more incentive to turn out.

With the latest poll showing a 1 pt difference with only a day left we would expect Morning Joe to mention the race again…

…you would be wrong. They talked about PA all right but only about the Senate race, they discussed it in each segment and even brought in Gov Rendell who talked up Arlen Specter. Not a single word about Pa-12, and Rush would say, zip zero nada.

It couldn’t be that seeing the new poll they decided to focus on the Senate race to bump up democratic turnout in the district could it?

In 2008 there was a question on the Massachusetts ballot to repeal the state income tax. It lost spectacularly by 40 points.

However a lot has changed in Massachusetts in the last 14 months to Carla Howell who spearheaded the last attempt to roll back taxes is back again. This time with an attempt to roll back the sales tax to 3%

I met her at the Post (tea) party Summit and she consented to an interview:

Things being a tad different in Massachusetts these days anything could happen.