Archive for the ‘elections’ Category

As the election counting, and soon to be recounting, rages on, there are plenty of people that tell me they just “couldn’t vote for Trump,” even though in theory they are conservatives. Personally, I vote based on what a candidate says they support, or has demonstrated they support, for policies that I care about, ranging from foreign policy and gun control to right to life and taxes, and then on a scale of how much I care about each. For example, I care more about foreign policy and abortion than taxes because I’m directly affected by foreign policy and I’ve seen first hand how pervasive abortion theory is in hospitals, but I’m not making enough money to care if the tax rate jumps significantly.

I also know that while I’m a policy voter, many people have an emotional connection to voting, and they have to “like” the candidate they are voting for. We can discuss whether that makes sense in another article, but we should recognize that candidate likeability does matter to many people. It’s likely what got Bill Clinton elected. But is likeability enough that it mattered to Trump’s election?

Although the data isn’t complete yet, I pulled Reuters election data and used Wikipedia for 2016 election data to try and answer the question: Did people not vote for Trump that would have voted for another Republican Presidential candidate that was more likeable? I sampled data by looking at states that had Senate races. My theory was that if someone was a “Never Trumper,” they would likely still vote for the Senate Republican in their state. I also looked at Libertarian votes to see if they made a difference. The states I ended up picking were Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, New Mexico, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota and Colorado, in what I think is a pretty decent spread.

First, was their a surge in Libertarian votes? Not at all.

Just looking at raw numbers, Libertarian votes went down, in many cases drastically. 2016 was a banner year for Libertarian and Green Party vote, but this year they just did not have the turnout, despite running Jo Jorgenson, a very likeable candidate.

Second, was there a noticeable Never Trump vote? I calculated the difference between Presidential votes and Senate votes between parties and then compared them. The numbers aren’t 100% aligned. I calculated a scaling factor to multiply the Senate votes by to balance numbers. Then I took the difference from Senate Republicans vs Trump votes to see if there were “Never Trumper” votes. If there were, I then calculated if the difference mattered.

The results are interesting. In Arizona and Alabama, the number was negative, meaning Trump had more votes than the Senate Republican. In the 6 states where there was Never Trump votes, only one, Georgia, would have mattered.

While not 100% scientific, we can reach a few conclusions:

  1. The Never Trump vote is real, but not everywhere.
  2. Where there is a Never Trump vote, it mostly doesn’t always matter, even in swing states.
  3. Libertarian vote didn’t appreciably go up this year.

For Republicans, this is good and bad news. It means that the Never Trump faction isn’t nearly as big as the media might make it out to be. Better still, when people had a choice between a more likeable candidate (Jo Jorgensen), they actively chose not to vote for her, far more than the 2016 election would have indicated.

The bad news is that Biden wins in key states can’t be attributed to candidate hatred. Democrats ran a relatively weak, bland candidate, and he is either coming out on top or close to it. That means that overall people are looking favorably on Democrat candidates. Whether its the biased news media, demographics, vote rigging or policies, Republicans are not in a good spot, because short of major changes, they don’t have a chance at capturing the Presidency in the future.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency.

Why I’m Voting for Donald Trump

Posted: November 3, 2020 by chrisharper in elections
Tags: ,

By Christopher Harper

The economy under Donald Trump has been a marvel. Despite the pandemic, my wallet is fuller than ever before. That’s why I’m among a significant majority of Americans who think I’m better off than I was four years ago.

My wife and I just refinanced our house at the lowest rate we’ve ever had in 40 years of home owning and lowered our monthly costs by $400 a month on a shorter term.

My retirement account has improved dramatically over the past four years, making it possible for us to live well.

After many years of reporting about the Middle East, I am far more hopeful than ever. The defeat of the Islamic State has made the region far safer. The disengagement from the Iran nuclear deal has hobbled that country and its plans for the region. The peace agreements between Arab states and Israel are the most encouraging signs since the Camp David accords 40 years ago.

Early on, the president tried to engage China, but he realized that the Beijing government represents the most severe threat to the United States and the world. As a result, he has used the bully pulpit and executive orders to awaken people to the issues.

After nearly 50 years as a journalist and a journalism educator, I realize that my craft has fallen on bad times. The media have become sellers of falsehoods rather than beacons of truth. I applaud the president for calling out those in the media who are more interested in dividing us than uniting us.

President Trump would surely have won in a landslide had the pandemic not intervened. As a senior citizen, I was worried about how COVID-19 might affect my wife and me. Fortunately, the disease has not seriously affected most of the people we know.

As COVID-19 has become the centerpiece of the Democrat and media attack against the president, I thought they might have some better solutions. I was stunned at the recent onslaught of campaign ads by the Democrats that focused on masks, Obamacare, and shutdowns. If that’s the best that Joe Biden and his team can come up with, I’m glad they didn’t run health policy over the last year.

Although I didn’t vote for President Obama and Vice President Biden, I hoped that a black president might usher in better race relations. In fact, the opposite happened. As Obama and Biden fanned the flames of racial unrest in places like Ferguson, Missouri, I realized that things were going to get worse before they got better. As a result, I blame Obama and Biden for the division in the country.

Finally, I am grateful that President Trump has been able to return the U.S. Supreme Court to a better balance than I’ve seen in my lifetime.

I have never felt better about the righteousness of my vote.

By John Ruberry

Election Season is almost over–Election Day of course is on Tuesday.

Amy Coney Barrett is now America’s newest US Supreme Court justice, there is a solid 6-3, or mostly solid, conservative majority on the nation’s highest court.

Here’s something to think about now that November is here: we never got a solid answer on whether Joe Biden and Kamala Harris favors packing the Court with liberals.

Harris was particularly shameful in discussing court packing, claiming the Donald Trump has been doing that for the last four years. That’s a lie. Harris is hoping that enough uneducated voters fall for her pack of crap explanation that filling judicial vacancies, one seat for one seat, is court packing.

Court packing as a strategy goes back to Franklin Roosevelt’s second term. Frustrated by Supreme Court rulings against parts of his New Deal, FDR proposed adding seats to the Court. The Supreme Court has been fixed at nine seats since 1869.

Last month Harris and Biden hemmed and hawed over court packing and the subject was brought to them by by local reporters, not the elite media. Finally Biden said we’d get our answer on court packing after the election.

This is leadership?

Last week, in a 60 Minutes interview, Biden said if elected he would for a commission whose focus would be on “how to reform the court system.”

Meanwhile the next day far-left member of Congress, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) in a Tweet phrased her opinion, “Expand the court.”

To my knowledge no one has publicly asked Biden or Harris if they support packing the US Senate with two more states, Puerto Rico and the the District of Columbia.

Both states are heavily Democratic.

John Ruberry regularly blogs at Marathon Pundit.

A few years ago I was a Cubmaster for my son’s Cub Scout Pack. As the Cubmaster, I controlled our schedule of events, including what big events we held once a month at our Pack Meetings. One month my Den Leaders (adult leaders for Scout groups at different ages) agreed to the theme of “Emergency Preparation.” We divided the Scouts into stations. At one station, the Scouts learned basic first aid from one of the parents that was a nurse. At another, an energetic Den Leader taught the Scouts how to build a stretcher, and the Scouts raced with their Den Leaders in their makeshift stretcher. But the best station, by far, was the fire fighting. We had a legitimate fire fighter chief as a Den Leader, and he brought out a fire fighting propane tank and fire extinguishers, and taught our Scouts how to properly put out fires.

It was awesome, and let me tell you, the Scouts putting out real propane-fueled fires was the talk of the small town for almost two weeks, beating out even the common subjects of Minecraft and Pokemon-Go. I still have the coolest night-time photos of 7 year old boys putting out propane fires with a fire extinguisher.

Not everyone was impressed. That same night the church we were borrowing had choir practice, and the older church ladies had to park twenty feet farther than their normal parking spot because of our setup. The next day, I got word that the church was not happy and was sending a nasty email to our council. Thinking quickly, I posted the most awesome pictures of those events on Facebook and tagged the church in the post. It went viral, with almost 3000 views in a town that only had 5000 people, many of them members of the same church. I reaped my success, with no email to council and a mild rebuke to me from the church, which I settled with an apology and promise to do better in the future.

Our Scouting program that year did all sorts of awesome stuff, and the Scouts couldn’t keep quiet with their friends. Yet the nasty comments from the church ladies still bothered me. Later I realized that some people just never wanted change. It didn’t matter that Scouts were learning skills, or that the church got a positive nod because of their support. Nope, the fact that someone had to park a mere twenty feet away meant the whole thing was rubbish.

We’re seeing that with government. When we decide to move EUCOM headquarters out of Germany and into Poland, instead of discussion about keeping Russia at bay, we hear about the economic impact to regions in Germany. When we continue to have shipyard issues and can’t build or fix the majority of Navy ships on time or within budget, we don’t ask “Who should be fired,” but instead just suck up the cost and move on. Government is happy to repeat the past, no matter how out of date it is, because its the easy button approach.

But as time and technology march on, government wants to do more of the same. We want to use the same crappy setup for acquiring weapons that continues to not work. While Amazon has been drone delivering for years, we’re just now figuring out that’s a good idea. And if you’ve ever logged into a Navy personnel website, it looks like a 5 year old built it.

If you haven’t already, you’re going to vote on Tuesday. You’ll pick from a variety of candidates, and not just in the Presidential election. I implore you to look at their actual voting records and accomplishments. Plenty of people from all parties are all talk and no action. They are content to ride the government wave of mediocrity, never being held to account for so much money and time spent with so little to show for it. If you want more of the same, more ineffective government that you pay so much for, then voting for these people is easy.

If you instead want effective use of your tax dollars, vote differently. Government isn’t inherently evil, but it can be inclined into a passive nature that turns a blind eye to scandal, fraud and abuse. Voting in people that challenge this nature and demand government be better is what brings real change. These people are often the quiet leaders, spending the hours reading the fine print and rewriting it to make more sense. They aren’t always eloquent, but they are effective.

If you want effective government, you vote for these people. They aren’t the ones whining about walking the extra twenty feet.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency.