Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

Michael Corleone: What’s the trouble between you and Mr. Joe Zasa?

Vincent Mancini: Just trouble. I’ll take care of it.

Michael Corleone: That’s foolish of you.

Vincent Mancini: Foolish of me? It’s a little foolish of this guy don’t you think? Right? RIGHT!

Michael Corleone: Temper like his father. Vincent, Mr. Joe Zasa now owns what used to be the Corleone family business in New York. Out of the kindness of his heart he gave you a job with his family. Contrary to my advice you took the job. I offered you something better. Something in the legitimate world. You turned me down. Now you both come to me with this bad blood. What do you expect me to do? Am I a gangster?

Vincent Mancini: No, no, you’re not a gangster, Uncle Mike.

Connie: Michael, that’s Papa’s old neighborhood now it’s a sewer. Zasa runs it like a disgrace the ladies told me.

Joey Zasa: I earned that territory with my talent. The commission gave it to me. You approved.

Michael Corleone: Yes.

Vincent Mancini: Hey, Uncle Mike, I’m just here for the party. I didn’t come here to ask for help. I could just kill this bastard. He’s the one who should be asking for help.

Michael Corleone: Then kill him. What does this have to do with me?

Godfather III 1979

I’ve spent the last week or more thinking very hard on Ukraine, the Russian Invasion, the Surprising Unity of the West on the subject and the almost Totalitarian response to anyone who questions things.

Like any normal person the sight of Russian column hitting another sovereign country, even one that was an integral part of Russia for a century before there was ever a Soviet Union rubs me the wrong way. It’s wrong and Putin should turn around his columns and head home.

I’m also however disturbed about what I’ve been hearing has gone in Ukraine BEFORE Putin went in. I got a little background from Lee Stranahan and this piece from Peter Hitchens talked about changes he had started to see in Ukraine around 2010 who put a lot of this in perspective:

Until that point, Ukraine had been a reasonably harmonious country in its 20-odd years of existence. After that visit I saw big trouble coming, both in the Crimea and in the Don Basin, where I also travelled that year.

Then of course came the 2014 Obama backed coup and the stuff that Hitchens was worried about escalated, to the point where you have a defacto Civil War with the two eastern provinces in revolt.

This is bad, and the fighting that has been going on their is bad but it raises a point.

Ukraine is a sovereign country, if they are making a mess of it, if they are mistreating their Russian Minority and if said minority is , at least in the east in revolt, does that give another country a right to go in? b

Stranahan thinks it does, he thinks Putin is basically cleaning out Nazis, I however think that Vlad is much more interested in reconstituting the old Russian (not soviet) empire and sphere of influence. I think he is using a legitimate grievance as the basis for a casus belli to get involved toward the goal that I have stated, reconstitution of the old Russian Empire and I think he felt safe to do so because of the green light the west in general and the Biden Administration kept signaling on his moves concerning the two eastern parts in rebellion, not the signals from that week mind you, but the signals for months. He saw an opening and decided to go for it.

As I’ve written before the west was caught completely off guard by the decision of the Ukrainian leadership to bravely stand and fight rather than to take the money and run. This threw everything into chaos in terms of Western Reaction and what to do next.

After seeing the reaction to all that’s gone on, how so many have gone into lockstep, how suddenly the media began to sing with one tune, how others suddenly moved in lockstep and more importantly how so many elites on different side were all using the same playbook all I could think of was this exchange from the classic movie The Three Musketeers 1948

Richelieu: The Jewels were presented to Buckingham only last night by the queen.

Lady DeWinter: Oh so he reached the Queen. How comical despite all your precautions.

Richelieu: I leave the making of Rochefort and his excuses can be quite imaginative. It’s his claim that some lone monster named D’Artagnan annihilated all my men.

Lady DeWinter: Oh no what a catastrophe!

Richelieu: It takes a good man to prevent a catastrophe, it takes a great man to profit from one. You and I are rare new creatures in this ancient world of impulsive men. We have intellect, we think and when we think our impulsive enemies are helpless.

I think the elites, the global warming crowed, the Soros’ of the world and those looking for graft see an opportunity here. Millions, maybe billions in aid to milk, millions maybe billions in pressure to increase their power and empire, an empire without borders.

And then there is Communist China, still actively communist, ready to take advantage of weakness in the west, weakness in Russia and the uncertainty all of these things bring.

In short it’s my opinion that Putin, Soros and others are playing a 21st century version of what used to be called “The great game”. I think they see a chessboard and us as pawns to be moved and played and sacrificed for their goal, of wealth, power and status.

The only way to win is not to play, so I’m not playing.

What should happen? Ukraine should treat it’s Russian citizens like citizens and let them be and stop repressing their opposition parties. Russia should pull out of Ukraine and keep the promise they made to respect Ukraine’s borders when they gave up their nukes and stop repressing their people. Foreign countries and leaders should stop using Ukraine as a personal graft playground (see Biden , Hunter) and let them live their own lives and function for the benefit of their own people.

That is what should happen if the world was populated by angels, and it’s not.

What will happen? Well in my opinion the best case scenario at this point is Russia pulling out of Ukraine because of losses and accepting a deal where Ukraine becomes India / Pakistan the nationalists in the east get their completely Ukrainian land and the ethnic Russians who don’t want to be a part of it are able to live in peace. If we’re really luck the Russian speakers in the western part who help resist the invasion will be accepted by the Ukrainian nationals and be able to stay where they are and be treated like full equal citizens of a free country.

What do I think will actually happen? I don’t know. I think Putin doesn’t want to admit defeat and I think the people pulling strings in the west to choke him want to be sure that there grift goals are achieved. I also think that if Russia looks like it could take the whole country Poland, Finland and the Baltic States are not going to sit by and let Ukraine be conquered and I think people with agendas here and elsewhere are going to do what they can to secure those agendas even if it means a longer or wider war.

The biggest losers are going to be the Ukrainians who are being killed, having their cities and villages attacked and their lives ruined, the 2nd biggest are the Russian conscripts who are being sent to do it. Here in America the big losers will be the regular people who will find life more expensive further widening the class divide into the masters and serfs.

All of that stinks, but as I said the only way to win this game is by not playing so I’m not. If other choose to do so or think differently, that’s fine but it’s on them.

It’s time to start thinking what happens after Ukraine falls.

You might be forgiven for thinking that all the stories of plucky defenders of Ukraine indicate the war is going well. It’s not. While Ukraine didn’t fall quickly like Georgia or the Crimea peninsula, it is fairly obvious that the war is not going well for them.

The Russians are on the doorsteps of Kyiv. Yes, taking one’s capital isn’t nearly as important as it once was, but it is a big symbol and will give Russia the chance to setup a government body. It’ll be 100% illegitimate, but if Russia enforces it, it doesn’t matter.

They have nearly taken all of the southern land that borders the Black Sea. That’s really important for two reasons. First, that means you can’t resupply directly from the sea, which is the quickest way to bring heavy units like tanks and armor into your country. Second, it means that if anyone was to bring a carrier strike group into the Black Sea, they have to overfly Russian territory that is sure to be crawling with anti-air guns and missiles.

The Russians recently took a nuclear power plant responsible for a pretty large percentage of power in the region. Not only do they have the brainpower to run the plant, but now they can start cutting power to Ukraine.

And we’re only a little over a week in. Remember that it took 100 days to kick Iraq out of Kuwait, and around two months to take out Taliban leadership in Afghanistan. Russia isn’t on the timetable they want, but they aren’t nearly as bogged down as people want to believe.

So what happens when Russia wins? First, you better believe that China is taking notes about Taiwan. Every single sanction we throw at Russia is going to cause the Chinese to build defenses. Kicking out of SWIFT? China already has an alternative, called CIPS, that you can bet they will push as better than SWIFT over the summer. I’d expect China to crack down on its wealthy people with wealth outside of China, disguised as accusing them of “tax evasion.” Essentially, China will make China an island that can be (mostly) self sufficient in order to insulate itself from sanctions.

Europe? The good news is maybe the Europeans will finally get serious about their own militaries. Europe has been comfortable under a US military umbrella, but Ukraine is making them really uncomfortable about now. Remember when President Trump told Germany to pay its fair share of military costs for NATO? Remember when he told France that too? Wonder why Russia doesn’t take those two countries seriously, and what the consequences could be? Well, now you know.

Lastly, I’d put money on Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan pursuing nuclear weapons. Let’s be completely honest, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea could build them tomorrow if they wanted to. They possess the technology and brainpower to do it, and as they watch Ukraine, they are going to want their own assurance that China won’t decide to hurt them. Saudi Arabia would likely just purchase them, potentially from Israel or India, or even North Korea. They won’t wait for the US to not respond to an Iranian attack. Kazakhstan, which dismantled the nuclear weapons left in its territory by the Russians, is likely regretting that decision, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they buy weapons and secretly ship them into the country.

It’s not pleasant, but we should be thinking about what comes after Russia dissolves Ukraine. It might take them a month…but sadly, short of significant powers getting involved, its going to happen.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. If you enjoyed this, please consider purchasing one of the authors books for you or a friend.