Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

if the same battle were to be fought over again, every day, through a week of days, with the same relative results, the army under Lee would be wiped out to its last man, while the Army of the Potomac would still be a mighty host. The war would be over. The Confederacy gone.

Lincoln reflecting on the Gigantic Union defeat at Battle of Fredericksburg

During the American Civil War one of the things that Abraham Lincoln understood before anything else that the primary objective of the Union Army was the defeat and destruction of the Confederate Army (particularly the army of Northern Virginia commanded by Robert E. Lee). He understood that however grand Lee and his subordinates from Longstreet to AP Hill to Jackson were in the end the math was in his favor.

Eventually he found US Grant to command in the east who instead of retreating after defeats like the Wilderness kept attacking. Grant’s Army was bleed badly but Lee’s was bleed drive to the point where he was besieged and while it might resist a flanking movement or two against them, was no longer a threat to do anything but slowly starve.

And that brings us to Hamas and the reality, and the math of the situation.

The reality is that the Hamas and their supporters don’t care about a Palestinian state, They could have had one for the last quarter century if they wanted one but have already declined.

Furthermore they are not interested in people who target Muslims. In China and elsewhere Muslims have been targeted and slaughtered without a peep from any of them, largely because with the exception of China the people targeting Muslims for slaughter have been other Muslims.

What they are interested in are dead Jews and the attack on Israel was all about producing dead Jews which is why women and children are a preferred target as they are:

• Easier to kill
• Less likely to shoot back
• Either are or produce the next generation of Jews

The academic left not withstanding Hamas understands that every dead Israeli women means fewer Jews in the future which makes it easier to kill Jews.

But Hamas understands one thing even better more and that’s the ghastly math that is in their favor.

Israel has a population of about 11 million with about 7 1/2 million of them Jews. Let’s compare that to the population of the countries bordering them:

• Population of Egypt: 110 Million
• Population of Jordan: 11 million
• Population of Lebanon 5 Million
• Population of Syria: 20 Million (estimated: It was 21 mil at the start of the Civil war two years ago)

and finally let’s add Gaza

• Population of Gaza 2 million

That adds up to 148 million people surrounding Israel’s 11 million. I suspect practically none of those 148 million would shed a tear if Israel disappeared tomorrow. A ratio of more than 10 to 1 and remember we’re only counting lands adjacent to Israel, we aren’t counting Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Yemen, Morocco, Libya or any other Arab state nearby that would cheer the destruction of Israel from afar.

The math is rather simple and can be illustrated by the results of the six day war.

The six day war was one of the most decisive victories in the history of history. Alone Israel defeated 3 foes (four if you count Iraq) so decisively that diplomats rushed to restrain them before they could reach Damascus or go beyond the Jordan river to the east or beyond the Suez canal. It was one of the most humiliating defeats the Arab world ever saw.

But examine the causalities:

According to Wikipedia the arab casualties were as follows (taking the high numbers of the range):

• Egypt 15,000 killed or missing 4338 captured 19338 causalities
• Jordan 700 killed, 2500 wounded, 533 captured 3733 casualties
• Syria 2500 killed 591 captured 3091 causalities
• Iraq 10 killed 30 wounded 40 causalities

That comes to 18210 killed or missing, 2530 wounded and 5462 captured for a total of 26,202 casualties

Now lets take a look at Israel’s causalities and this time take the low number of the ranges given:

Israel 776 killed, 4517 wounded , 15 captured. that comes to 5308 casualties. It’s a five to one ratio which on the battle field is a ratio of epic proportions a disaster.

However the reality is that the population of the Arabs states that border Israel isn’t 5-1 it’s 13 to 1.

Put simply the Arab world if it was willing could lose a six day war every six days for a year with the same casualty ratio as the original and it wouldn’t make as huge a dent in their population as it would on Israel.

Israel has already suffered 2000 + causalities before any invasion of Gaza. That means that if unless Hamas causalities are in the tens of thousands they are already ahead in terns if the math.

I suspect that is their primary goal, to get the rest of the Arab world to a state where they are willing to fight and die for their cause even at a causality rate of 5-1 in Israel’s favor.

That however is where the Hamas math plan tends to fall apart. I suspect that the Arab states aren’t all that anxious to have their infrastructure destroyed and all those breathless protestors who are shouting in the safety of western capitals are unlikely to decide to come to Gaza to fight but that’s what the folks on the Hamas home team are shooting for.

I suspect the next few weeks of the war will not work well toward that goal.

As for Israel? How would I counter this? Three things.

1. Keep doing what you’re doing. The slow systematic destruction of Hamas is the best way to keep the other Arab states from succumbing to any pressure to jump in.
2. Create a series of front company offering to send any willing militant protestors in the west to Gaza to fight. This will not only allow you to weed out the most dangerous of those folks in the west who might threaten Jews there but will be a great disincentive for those who continue to march. I suspect it wouldn’t take too many of them being blown up to change the minds of the idle rich looking to virtue signal.
3. Adopt the “proportional response” language of the left when asked about causalities. Based on the figures above any number of Hamas causalities below 26,000 will still be at a “proportional rate” to the local anti-Israel Arab populations and of course that number will rise depending on the number of Israeli causalities suffered in the action and you could even include all those loud marching mobs in the base figure and still claim “proportionality”.