Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Here are the rules for the 2nd season (1997) of the 1996 short season draft league.

How the league is to be played

We will be playing the 1997 season We will be playing under 1997 rules with two exceptions. There will be at least one interleague play to allow each player to play each other player at least one home and away series. There will be no wild cards.

The schedule

We will be playing an 80 game schedule with two series against each opponent.

  • 2 Two game series vs interleague opponents
  • 2 Three game series vs teams in the same league but different divisions
  • 2 Four game series vs division rivals

One change in this season is that at least the final series of the season will be within the division

Frequency of games

There will be one series per week. This will make it easier to get in series vs division rivals and to prevent conflicts with my other leagues.

Number of teams

We will have a fixed number of teams 16.

Division setup:

2 leagues, 2 divisions in each no wild cards.

Trades and waivers.

After the fifth series of the season teams may trade. Any player on the current roster may be traded along with any of the first seven draft picks for the next season If a trade is made that increases a roster beyond the 40 man limit a player must be released before the next series is played. Any trades agreed will not be executed until all the teams involved have the same amount of games played.

Waivers takes place after the sixth series. Teams make waivers picked based on their current record and are made from the undrafted players not on rosters.. If a pick brings a Roster over 40 a player must be released or an injured player not on the DL must be placed there to make room.

Note: Any player who is planning to leave the league at the end of the season is encouraged NOT to trade as it is unfair to both the other teams and the player who will replace him or her.

NEW DRAFT TRADE WINDOWS

Pre-Draft Trade window:

There will be a 48 hour window before the formal draft where trading will be allowed.

Any player on the roster (rookie or retained player) may be dealt along with drift picks up to the 7th round at this time.

Only draft picks for the upcoming draft will be tradable.

The trade window will end 15 minutes before the start of the formal draft to allow for any updates to lists to be recorded before the start.

Draft Day Trading up or down window.

At the end of each round there will be a 10 minute window for rosters to be adjusted and all the paperwork to be done.

For the first five rounds of the draft During those 10 minutes teams will be allowed to Trade. NO PICKS BEYOND THE 7th ROUND ARE TRADABLE

Early Waivers:

Teams who drop out of the draft early (before round 26 season) can qualify for Early Waivers

Early waivers begin after week 1 and end after week 4

  • Players who leave the draft before round 30 may pick early waivers after week 4
  • Players who leave the draft before round 29 may pick early waivers after week 3
  • Players who leave the draft before round 27 may pick early waivers after week 2
  • Players who leave the draft before round 26 may pick early waivers after week 1

During Early Waivers the following rules apply

  1. Players may choose up to two players
  2. Order depends on when the player left the draft the earlier you left the higher you are in the order
  3. If two teams picking early waivers left the same round the team who drafted later in the base draft has priority
  4. Unlike regular waivers teams with a worse record can’t “counterclaim” you get who you pick.

The DL:

The DL WILL count toward your roster but to make up for it we will have a maximum 40 man roster. We will still only draft 30 but players may expand their rosters to 40 via trade and waivers.

Playing Games.

All games must be completed before the next scheduled series. the Dynasty system will take over and auto play any games that are not completed one hour before the next scheduled game (even if said unfinished game is in progress) Players are encouraged to use the chat room and the Dynasty message system to reschedule games if needed and are also encouraged to make a manager profile in case a game has to autoplay. Instructions on how to do that are here.

Be aware that if you have your team on AUTO and your opponent requests a rescheduled in the system Dynasty will automatically allow it so keep this in mind when or if you turn auto on. Also be aware if both team are on auto and you reschedule the game will be played automatically so make sure your team is not on auto before you do this. I also suggest when you go on auto if you plan on playing your next series make certain you checked off the “take off auto before the next series” button.

Expansion

This league will NOT have expansion. It is designed as a short season to contrast with the 1969 league and to give me an easy schedule to make. If you want a longer season and / or a bigger league check out my 1969 league currently playing 1971.

Selecting a franchise:

Players picked from existing franchises keeping two batters and two pitchers the rest go in the draft

Franchise locations and parks

Every team is presumed to have the park their team played in during the season they entered the league.

Franchises whose teams move in real life are not required to relocate their teams. So the Montreal Expos are not required to move to Washington but they retain the option to do so at the start of any season but such a move must be announced by draft day.

Franchises are NOT required to build new stadiums and my continue to play in their old stadiums if they wish. So Houstony can stay in the Astrodome if they wish but they retain the right to move into Minute Maid park at any time If a team chooses to move into their new park in the same city the old park is considered demolished and no other team may use it from that point on.

A team may NOT move into a park that in a different city because the Dynasty system bases the weather on the park used NOT the city that a team’s label claims it is in. .Example from the 1971 league: If the Seattle Pilots want to play in Country Stadium they MUST move to Milwaukee

A team may NOT move into a park in the same city that belongs to a future franchise. Example from 1971 league: If the Seattle Pilots choose to remain in Seattle rather than move to Milwaukee they may NOT move into the Kingdome because it is reserved for the Mariners franchise when it becomes available.

Old parks

A team MAY move into an old park from the same city under the following conditions:

  1. The park was once the home park of the franchise OR
  2. The franchise that once owned the park is now located in another city
  3. You or the previous owner of the team in this league did NOT move the team out of the park.

Examples,

  • the Seattle Pilots move to Milwaukee the Mariners if taken MAY move into Sick Stadium.
  • The Cardinals may move into sportsman park because it was once their old stadium.
  • Both the Yankees and the Mets may move into the Polo Grounds because the park is in NY and both teams were once based there.

Franchise Moves and or Replacement players or teams

A player may decide to take a different franchise after playing one season under the following rules

The player who movies will get the city and park of the new franchise at once but will NOT get the rookies for said new Franchise until the season AFTER the move

Example: Boston decides to move to California after the 2010 season. he does NOT get the rights to Mike Trout but retains the rights to any RedSox player who has their first card in 2011. If Boston makes the move to California in 2009 then after keeping the Boston rookies for 2010 in 2011 Mike Trout is his as a rookie (see rookies below)

If due to circumstances in the real world a player has to temporarily drop out of the league their team will be put on auto until a substitute can be found. Said substitute shall take over the team and play games until the original player can return but may not make trades or drop players from the roster (excepting for injury).

If at the end of the season the base player can’t return the substitute has first rights to the team and gets full control over it.

If a player has to drop out permanently the team will go on auto until a substitute or replacement player can be found. Said player will get full rights to the franchise unless they declare that they will only be a substitute till the end of the season.

If no replacement player is found during the season a new player will be recruited for the next season. Said player will retain the franchise and draft picks of the player he is replacing. If said new player wishes to move the franchise he can per the limitations listed above, namely he retains the rookies of the current franchise for his first season and then get the rookie rights to the new franchise the following year.

Example The Yankees drop out of the league due to illness. A substitute is found to play their games. The sub places the games until the Yankees recover. If they do not recover sufficiently to return to the league the substitute may over the Yankees franchise permanently

Example 2: A replacement player is found for the Yankees in the above example but is a big Texas fan. Said substitute can move their franchise to Texas but will retain the Yankees rookies for the 1998 season. Starting in 1999 they will have rights to Texas rookies.

Rookies

A “Rookie” is define as any player who did not have a card for the previous season.

A rookie is considered to be part of the team listed on their card regardless of who they actually played their first game for (Dynasty lists cards based on who a player finishes a season with thus any rookie that was traded by an MLB team in his first season will have their card listed for the team they were traded to NOT the team they played their first game with.

All teams retain rights to their rookies prior to the draft and rookies for a franchise are not eligible to be drafted in any expansion draft.

A Rookie becomes a part of a team after said team names their protected players for the draft. They count toward the 35 man roster

Any team that doesn’t want to retain a rookie may release them before the draft to open up a roster spot but once release all rights to said player are surrendered.

Players retained list

At the end of a season teams may retain a number of players based on their finish in the previous one The players retained list for 1997 is

  • World series winner 4 players ( Boston)
  • World series runner up 5 players (Florida)
  • Division winners that don’t go to the series 6 players (San Diego, Toronto)
  • Teams with the 5th and 6th best records that didn’t win a division 7 players (Houston, Cincinnati)
  • Teams with the 7th and 8th best records 8 players (St Louis, Chicago White Sox)
  • Teams with the 9th and 10th best records 9 players (Yankees, Baltimore)
  • Teams with the 11th and 12th best records 10 players (Atlanta, Seattle)
  • Teams with the 3rd and 4th worst records 11 players  (Pittsburgh, Los Angeles)
  • Teams with the worst and 2nd worst record 12  players (Cleveland, Minnesota)

Once the AL Pennant winner and world series are complete this list will be updated.

Rookies do not count toward the keeper list total.

As soon as all the keeper/rookies are finalized the draft day will be set. A minimum of one week wait will be given to make sure people can check out the cards the 1997 cards are here:

NOTE: 1  For teams with identical records we go to the tiebreakers

  1. Head to head record the team with the worst head to head record is considered to have the worst record.
  2. How many games behind the players were in their division. A team closer to a playoff spot his considered to have the better record.
  3. The best record in their division.
  4. The best record in the league
  5. Dice Roll, high roll is considered the team with the better record.

NOTE: If a player on your current Roster does not have a card for the next season due to injury, military service etc but WILL the following year a team may choose to retain the rights to said player but will have to spend a protected spot for it and will have to keep a space for him all season.

Example: Rheal Cormier was out the entire 1998 Season. If a team has him after the 1997 season and wants to keep him they can choose to hold his rights when his season ends and keep a roster spot for him. He will play 1998 with 39 players and in 1999 will hold the rights to Cormier.. If at any time he chooses to release him Cormier will be considered a rookie for Boston because

  1. He had no card the previous year
  2. No team held his rights
  3. His 1999 card says “Boston”

The draft order of teams for each season will be based on their finish the previous season. Any team that is not retained will of course not be drafting BUT If a team holds the draft pick of a team that is no longer in the league he will draft those picks as if that team was still in the league in the round that he holds them.

  1. Worst team (12) Cleveland Indians 
  2. 2nd worst team (12) Minnesota
  3. 3rd wort team (11) Pittsburgh (head to head vs Min)
  4. 4th worst team (11) Los Angeles
  5. 5th worst team (10) Atlanta (Fewer GB than LA)
  6. 6th worst team (10) Seattle
  7. 7th worst team (9) Yankees (Fewer GB than Sea)
  8. 8th worst team (9) Baltimore
  9. 8th BEST team (8) St. Louis
  10. 7th Best team (8) Chicago White Sox
  11. Team with the 2nd Best record that didn’t win a division (7) Cincinnati
  12. Team with the best record that didn’t win a division (7) Houston
  13. Division winner not in WS with worst record (6) Toronto
  14. Division winner not in WS with best record (6) San Diego
  15. World series loser (5) (Florida)
  16. Word series winner (4) ( Boston)

NOTES

Tiebreakers are the same for the keeper order

The 2nd tiebreaker if teams had identical records AND split their season series is draft order for the previous season

The pick order of traded picks remain the same even if a team is replaced.

Examples: If San Diego traded the NYY their 3rd round draft pick last season but are not an active team in 1997 then during round 3 the Yankees would get a pick in the sport where SD would have been had they played..

When all teams have drafted that will be considered the end of a round and the next round will commence.

Teams WILL continue to draft in this order until:

  • Round 30 OR
  • A team reaches 40 men OR
  • A team with 25 or more players on their roster voluntarily drops out

Once a team has dropped out of the draft they may not re-enter it. If they have less than 40 men the can only increase their roster either through trades or waivers.

The Formal & Informal Draft.

Formal Draft & Designated Draft day(s):

A date and time will be set for the initial rounds of the draft. It will almost certainly be a Saturday or Friday as those are the days I have off. Because my schedule is full from Thanksgiving to Christmas this may be delayed. If/When a designated draft day is set All teams will be expected to be either:

  1. Available in the slack chat room (preferred)
  2. Available by phone
  3. With me in my home at the time of the draft
  4. Have a list of players to be drafted submitted

All currently players are presumed to have looked over the card(s) for 1997 online or at least looked up stats by draft day. All teams are encouraged to start doing so at once.

  1. There will be one designated draft day per week.
  2. On a designated draft day a strict 5 minute limit will be allowed to make a pick.
  3. If a team misses their pick will be moved to after the next player on the list who will be considered on the clock and allowed to pick. Example: Cincinnati misses their pick and Houston is next, Houston is allowed to pick and Cincinnati picks after them
  4. If a team who has been skipped has to be skipped twice their pick can be made any time before the end of the round. Example Cincinnati is scheduled to pick 11th They miss their pick If they figure out who they want they can make a pick or submit a list any time before the end of the round and that pick will be valid.
  5. If a team that has been skipped has not picked by the end of the round then a pick will be made for them by me. Said pick will be the player from your franchise who played the most games that season based on their card. Example: Boston does not pick or submit a list for round 5 I will look at the Roster for the actual 1997 red sox to see who is available. If John Valentin has the most game played among unpicked players he will be Boston draft pick. If Boston already has 2 shortstops that will not matter Valentin becomes the pick.
  6. As soon as a round ends there will be a ten minute period to update the rosters and lists and confirm players were put on the right team. During that period draft day trades may be made (see above)
  7. The opening Scheduled draft days will go on for 100 picks. Other scheduled draft days will be 60 picks. Once the number of picks is reached the clock is turned off
  8. The Formal Draft generally begins at either 11 am or 1 pm EST to give west coast folk the time to be awake. Be aware that if you are scheduled to pick

BE AWARE THAT EVEN WITH A FIVE MINUTE LIMIT THAT CAN MEAN 80 MINUTES FOR 16 TEAMS TO PICK IN ONE ROUND. PLEASE DO YOUR BEST TO PREPARE FOR THE DRAFT TO CUT DOWN ON THE TIME REQUIRED. The more prepared everyone is the faster things will go.

Picks off the clock and on non-draft days

As soon as the initial draft ends the “informal draft” begins

During the informal draft a team has 24 hours to make a pick. Picks can be submitted in the draft room or via the Dynasty message system or in person if the person picking is local or via the phone to me. If there is an existing list from the formal draft it will be used to continue the informal draft.

Once the pick is made and recorded on the draft sheet and the player moved to the roster I will announce the pick in the slack chat room and inform the person up, the person on deck and the person in the hole to be prepared to pick. Until you see that announcement the pick is not official.

The Informal draft ends when:

  • Round 30 is complete OR
  • The next formal draft begins

The informal draft resumes after any formal draft that doesn’t reach round 30.

Be aware that trading can be made at any time during the informal draft until:

  • round seven is complete
  • 15 minutes before a formal draft that has not completed round 7

IMPORTANT: Once round seven of the draft is complete trading is finished until the end of week 5 of the season.

The season will begin one week after the draft is complete.

Game Play Etiquette:

Given the weekly nature of the game it should be not difficult to get games in on time or at least get series started but here are some basic guidelines.

  1. If you know in advance you can’t play on the scheduled game day and time try to contact your opponent to arrange a different time both through the chat room and the dynasty system.
  2. If gameday comes and your team is on AUTO your scheduled opponent should assume they can play all or part of their series if they choose.
  3. If gameday comes and you haven’t heard from your opponent check your “Friends” list to see when the last time they signed on was. If it is 10 days or more then play the series vs the PC
  4. If gameday comes and you haven’t heard from your opponent give him or her at least two five minute waiting periods before letting the computer take over the team
  5. On occasions when you and your opponent are in touch but just can’t seem to find a time when both are available I make the following suggestion.
    • The player who shows up on gameday should play one game (2 game series) or two games (3-4 game series) against the pc.
    • When those games are finished exit the system and put yourself on Auto being sure to check the “Take my team off auto after this series”
    • Then your opponent can finish the series as his or her time permits
  6. Keep in mind that the Dynasty system is designed to keep games moving the default position should always be to get games played when possible.

If you have any questions not covered here please let me know.

Update: Casual / Informal draft now gives people 24 hours to make a pick or provide a list before the rules of the timed draft apply.

If you are interested in joining this league or going on a waiting list to join leave a comment on this post or contact me via the Dynasty system.

Share this:

I have avoided using Artificial Intelligence since it first appeared on the scene a couple years beacuse it has a pronounced leftist bias built into it.  This was done organically by the high tech companies that invented this technology.

The leftist bias built into AI is about to get much worse because of an Executive Order issued by Joe Biden’s handlers: FACT SHEET: President Biden Issues Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence | The White House

Today, President Biden is issuing a landmark Executive Order to ensure that America leads the way in seizing the promise and managing the risks of artificial intelligence (AI). The Executive Order establishes new standards for AI safety and security, protects Americans’ privacy, advances equity and civil rights, stands up for consumers and workers, promotes innovation and competition, advances American leadership around the world, and more.

As part of the Biden-Harris Administration’s comprehensive strategy for responsible innovation, the Executive Order builds on previous actions the President has taken, including work that led to voluntary commitments from 15 leading companies to drive safe, secure, and trustworthy development of AI.

Like all Leftist proposals, this proposal sounds benign on the surface.  It is not until this section that the Marxist nature of this executive order becomes apparent.

Irresponsible uses of AI can lead to and deepen discrimination, bias, and other abuses in justice, healthcare, and housing. The Biden-Harris Administration has already taken action by publishing the Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights and issuing an Executive Order directing agencies to combat algorithmic discrimination, while enforcing existing authorities to protect people’s rights and safety. To ensure that AI advances equity and civil rights, the President directs the following additional actions:

  • Provide clear guidance to landlords, Federal benefits programs, and federal contractors to keep AI algorithms from being used to exacerbate discrimination.
  • Address algorithmic discrimination through training, technical assistance, and coordination between the Department of Justice and Federal civil rights offices on best practices for investigating and prosecuting civil rights violations related to AI.
  • Ensure fairness throughout the criminal justice system by developing best practices on the use of AI in sentencing, parole and probation, pretrial release and detention, risk assessments, surveillance, crime forecasting and predictive policing, and forensic analysis.

This article provides excellent analysis of this monstrosity: Biden Signs Executive Order Forcing Tech Companies to Program Marxist Ideology into AI – Slay News

buried in the order is a provision that stipulates that AI must help to advance the leftist agenda.  The order mandates that AI must be programmed with a foundation based on “equity.”  Not to be confused with “equality,” the Left’s “equity” agenda is based on Marxism.

Whereas “equality” teaches that everybody should be treated equally, no matter their race or sex, “equity” asserts that people should be treated differently depending on their skin color, “gender identity,” or mental state.  Under the “equity” ideology, for example, a transgender would be given advantages, such as securing a college scholarship or being offered a job, over a normal person.

Expand bilateral, multilateral, and multistakeholder engagements to collaborate on AI. The State Department, in collaboration, with the Commerce Department will lead an effort to establish robust international frameworks for harnessing AI’s benefits and managing its risks and ensuring safety. In addition, this week, Vice President Harris will speak at the UK Summit on AI Safety, hosted by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

By Christopher Harper

As Pennsylvania voters head to the polls next week, the Democrats have created another gimmick to boost their chances for all future elections, including the 2024 presidential campaign.

Pennsylvania played an essential role in the nail-biting elections of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, so any change in the state election process may become critical.

Gov. Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, has announced that Pennsylvania will implement automatic voter registration when someone gets a new driver’s license or renews an old one.

What’s wrong with the plan? It’s already incredibly easy to register to vote. If the estimated 1.7 million Pennsylvanians who haven’t registered to vote are that lazy, let them stay unregistered.

These “new” voters are more likely to use mail-in ballots, which Democrats to “harvest” ballots in 2020. Ballot harvesting occurs when individuals take advantage of the options to “harvest” or collect voters’ completed ballots and return them on behalf of the voter. While it may seem like a kind gesture to assist voters in submitting their mail ballots, ballot harvesting can severely undermine the fairness and honesty of elections.

A 2021 study by researchers from the University of Southern California and the University of California-Berkeley found that automatic voter registration increased registration in states where it was in effect and boosted the number of people voting by more than 1%.
Instead of the voter registration gimmick, state and local officials should investigate some serious organizational problems in the election process.

Just a stone’s throw away from Biden’s birthplace of Scranton, Luzerne County is a mess!

The Associated Press recounted that “the polls had just opened for last year’s midterms in Pennsylvania when the phones began ringing at the election office in Luzerne County.

“Polling places were running low on paper to print ballots. Volunteers were frustrated, and voters were worried they might not be able to vote.”

Emily Cook, the office’s interim deputy director who had been in her position for just two months, rushed to the department’s warehouse. She found stacks of paper, but it was the wrong kind — ordered long ago and too thick to meet the requirements for the county’s voting equipment.

Guess how Luzerne County votes. Democrat. Guess where the ballot shortages were most prominent. Republican precincts.

The 2022 ballot debacle, referred to locally as “papergate,” was just the latest problem in a county on its fifth election director in the past three years.

Election offices have been understaffed for years. But 2020 was a tipping point, with all the pandemic-related challenges before the presidential vote and the hostility afterward.

A wave of retirements and resignations has followed, creating a vacuum of institutional knowledge. In Pennsylvania, officials estimate that 40 of the state’s 67 county election offices have new directors or deputy directors since 2020.

Unfortunately, Al Schmidt, who oversaw the presidential election in Philadelphia in 2020, serves as the secretary of the Commonwealth, which runs Pennsylvania voting. Although Schmidt claims he is a Republican, he’s clearly one in name only from his background in Philadelphia.

The Pennsylvania election scheme is an absolute mess, and such messes make it a lot easier to steal votes or suppress them, and the Democrats have almost complete control of the operation in 2024.

Hamas Ghastly Dead Jew Math & a Suggestion to Israel

Posted: October 28, 2023 by datechguy in Uncategorized

if the same battle were to be fought over again, every day, through a week of days, with the same relative results, the army under Lee would be wiped out to its last man, while the Army of the Potomac would still be a mighty host. The war would be over. The Confederacy gone.

Lincoln reflecting on the Gigantic Union defeat at Battle of Fredericksburg

During the American Civil War one of the things that Abraham Lincoln understood before anything else that the primary objective of the Union Army was the defeat and destruction of the Confederate Army (particularly the army of Northern Virginia commanded by Robert E. Lee). He understood that however grand Lee and his subordinates from Longstreet to AP Hill to Jackson were in the end the math was in his favor.

Eventually he found US Grant to command in the east who instead of retreating after defeats like the Wilderness kept attacking. Grant’s Army was bleed badly but Lee’s was bleed drive to the point where he was besieged and while it might resist a flanking movement or two against them, was no longer a threat to do anything but slowly starve.

And that brings us to Hamas and the reality, and the math of the situation.

The reality is that the Hamas and their supporters don’t care about a Palestinian state, They could have had one for the last quarter century if they wanted one but have already declined.

Furthermore they are not interested in people who target Muslims. In China and elsewhere Muslims have been targeted and slaughtered without a peep from any of them, largely because with the exception of China the people targeting Muslims for slaughter have been other Muslims.

What they are interested in are dead Jews and the attack on Israel was all about producing dead Jews which is why women and children are a preferred target as they are:

  • Easier to kill
  • Less likely to shoot back
  • Either are or produce the next generation of Jews

The academic left not withstanding Hamas understands that every dead Israeli women means fewer Jews in the future which makes it easier to kill Jews.

But Hamas understands one thing even better more and that’s the ghastly math that is in their favor.

Israel has a population of about 11 million with about 7 1/2 million of them Jews. Let’s compare that to the population of the countries bordering them:

  • Population of Egypt: 110 Million
  • Population of Jordan: 11 million
  • Population of Lebanon 5 Million
  • Population of Syria: 20 Million (estimated: It was 21 mil at the start of the Civil war two years ago)

and finally let’s add Gaza

  • Population of Gaza 2 million

That adds up to 148 million people surrounding Israel’s 11 million. I suspect practically none of those 148 million would shed a tear if Israel disappeared tomorrow. A ratio of more than 10 to 1 and remember we’re only counting lands adjacent to Israel, we aren’t counting Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Yemen, Morocco, Libya or any other Arab state nearby that would cheer the destruction of Israel from afar.

The math is rather simple and can be illustrated by the results of the six day war.

The six day war was one of the most decisive victories in the history of history. Alone Israel defeated 3 foes (four if you count Iraq) so decisively that diplomats rushed to restrain them before they could reach Damascus or go beyond the Jordan river to the east or beyond the Suez canal. It was one of the most humiliating defeats the Arab world ever saw.

But examine the causalities:

According to Wikipedia the arab casualties were as follows (taking the high numbers of the range):

  • Egypt 15,000 killed or missing 4338 captured 19338 causalities
  • Jordan 700 killed, 2500 wounded, 533 captured 3733 casualties
  • Syria 2500 killed 591 captured 3091 causalities
  • Iraq 10 killed 30 wounded 40 causalities

That comes to 18210 killed or missing, 2530 wounded and 5462 captured for a total of 26,202 casualties

Now lets take a look at Israel’s causalities and this time take the low number of the ranges given:

Israel 776 killed, 4517 wounded , 15 captured. that comes to 5308 casualties. It’s a five to one ratio which on the battle field is a ratio of epic proportions a disaster.

However the reality is that the population of the Arabs states that border Israel isn’t 5-1 it’s 13 to 1.

Put simply the Arab world if it was willing could lose a six day war every six days for a year with the same casualty ratio as the original and it wouldn’t make as huge a dent in their population as it would on Israel.

Israel has already suffered 2000 + causalities before any invasion of Gaza. That means that if unless Hamas causalities are in the tens of thousands they are already ahead in terns if the math.

I suspect that is their primary goal, to get the rest of the Arab world to a state where they are willing to fight and die for their cause even at a causality rate of 5-1 in Israel’s favor.

That however is where the Hamas math plan tends to fall apart. I suspect that the Arab states aren’t all that anxious to have their infrastructure destroyed and all those breathless protestors who are shouting in the safety of western capitals are unlikely to decide to come to Gaza to fight but that’s what the folks on the Hamas home team are shooting for.

I suspect the next few weeks of the war will not work well toward that goal.

As for Israel? How would I counter this? Three things.

  1. Keep doing what you’re doing. The slow systematic destruction of Hamas is the best way to keep the other Arab states from succumbing to any pressure to jump in.
  2. Create a series of front company offering to send any willing militant protestors in the west to Gaza to fight. This will not only allow you to weed out the most dangerous of those folks in the west who might threaten Jews there but will be a great disincentive for those who continue to march. I suspect it wouldn’t take too many of them being blown up to change the minds of the idle rich looking to virtue signal.
  3. Adopt the “proportional response” language of the left when asked about causalities. Based on the figures above any number of Hamas causalities below 26,000 will still be at a “proportional rate” to the local anti-Israel Arab populations and of course that number will rise depending on the number of Israeli causalities suffered in the action and you could even include all those loud marching mobs in the base figure and still claim “proportionality”.