Archive for the ‘war’ Category

Two Miscalculations The Biden Admin on Putin and the Biden Administration and Putin on Zelensky

Posted: March 3, 2022 by datechguy in war
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Lt Columbo: You know for a while there I thought: I’ll never get her. All those little details they just didn’t make it, there was nothing conclusive, and then I thought, It’s gotta be the money.

Mrs. Williams: What money?

Lt. Columbo: The ransom money. When a person engineers a false kidnapping they have to have the money hidden somewhere. Now it cleaned you out to raise the ransom. So I thought I gotta find a way to force her to use the ransom money. [to man bringing suitcase] thank you very much. You know seemed like a nutty idea to everyone, it did to my wife. But I believed in it because Mrs. Williams you have no conscience and that’s your weakness. Did it ever occur to you that there are very few people that would take money to forget about a murder? It’s didn’t did it? I knew it wouldn’t. No conscience, limits your imagination you can’t conceive of anybody being any different then what you are, and you’re greedy. And that’s why, bright as you are, and you’re bright, you believed Margaret could be bought.

Columbo: Ransom for a dead man 1971

If you want to know how we got to the point where we might actually be on the brink of a World War and a dramatic change in how countries choose to defend themselves its origin comes from two miscalculations.

As we’ve mentioned before the Biden administration practically invited the Russians to go into the eastern sections of Ukraine that have been fighting since the 2014 coup that put in the current government, they calculated they would recognize those areas, maybe move in some troops. the Biden Administration would say a few words and then take credit for preventing an invasion of Ukraine proper and it would be business as usual.

It didn’t work out that way.

Putin took one look at the American response and figured these pigeons were ripe for the plucking and decided to go all in. It made sense, a weak America, a Europe completely dependent on Russia for fuel and retaking Ukraine becomes a piece of cake, particularly when he figured that Ukraine would not be able to resist him very long.

That’s where the 2nd miscalculation came in for Both Putin & the Biden Administration.

With Putin moving in the Biden Admin figured the jig was up and the best move would be to get the president Zelensky out. They and the Obama folks had had years of good pickings in the region and they figured they would set him up somewhere comfortable he would keep his mouth shut about the various dealing that had gone on while occasionally putting in a good word for the good folks of the Biden Admin that got him and his out. They saw him as they saw themselves, just another grifter.

That’s where they’re both wrong.

The Ukrainian government is corrupt and Ukrainian companies have been involved in some shady dealings with the US left in general and the Biden family in particular but personal corruption and greed and bravery and love for one’s country are not mutually exclusive. It’s one thing to skim things from the top to enrich yourself, it’s another to leave your country and let it die at the hands of a traditional enemy. This was a shock to the Biden Administration and those running it

You see the Biden family the Biden administration and the folks who have been profiting from Ukraine are a bunch of amoral grifters who only care about themselves. They would never risk their lives in a seemingly hopeless cause when the could go off and live like a king and they could not conceive of the idea that Zelensky would decide to stay and fight. It wasn’t on their radar. Putin how deep the grift in Ukraine was might have figured the same but frankly should have known better.

When Zelensky bravely decided to not only stay but do so publicly in order to inspire his countrymen in their time of need every calculation of the Davos class went out the window and now the west is in pickle.

For the Biden Administration it’s the worst of all possible worlds. He looks weak no matter what happens and every day that Ukraine is the center of the world’s attention is a day that people might start asking uncomfortable questions that even the US media can’t protect him from.

For their media allies it’s a mixed bag, it’s a great story but they need it to end soon, both to protect the image of Biden and to keep people from asking too many questions.

For Europe it’s a defining moment. They don’t want world war three but they also don’t want to reward Russia, furthermore seeing that the US isn’t going to defend them they are going to have to decide to defend themselves and that means the assets of the elites are not immune.

For Russia it’s become a pretty bad situation. Even victory in Ukraine now comes at a high price because you have Germany rearming, Finland suddenly looking to join NATO and the west and the media seemingly united against him.

All of this comes from two miscalculations. What’s next? I’m not sure. If Putin was looking for a bright spot the STOU speech certainly was one, If the west was looking for a bright spot the seemingly mediocre performance of the Russian Army sure looks like one, but I think it’s going to be a couple of months before we really know what the score is over there.

Joe Morgan, Opening Prayers or Don’t Tell Me There’s No God

Posted: February 28, 2022 by datechguy in catholic, Church doctrine, war

I offer thee Lord Jesus this eighth decade in honor of the Proclamation of the Kingdom of Heaven and I ask of thee through this mystery and through the intercession of thy Holy Mother the ability to see the works of God all around us

The introduction I use when praying the 3rd Mystery of Light of the Rosary

Let me direct you to something from the Original Bill James Baseball Abstract concerning Joe Morgan and pitchouts which never seemed to work on him:

An announcer asked him about it one time—this was years ago and I’m paraphrasing the answer as I remember it–but as I recall he said that somebody would always give it away, and usually you could pick up three or four clues. The pitcher would not throw over to first like he usually would, or he’d look at you a little bit different, or he’d rush the delivery home or the first baseman or second baseman would try to cheat toward the bag. or the catcher would look down at you right before giving the signal or would set himself up a little different so he could get up and throw. He said once you picked up on one thing you would look for the others and you’d see them too. I used to play cards with a guy like that. He’s read your eyes and knew what you had. Drive You Crazy

The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract 1995 P349

What does that have to do with the price of tea in China? Well Fifty two years ago or so at the Vatican some priest, or Bishop or Cardinal involved with the making of the New Roman Missal for the mass was composing opening prayers for the mass for every single day of the year. Occasionally the same opening prayer would be used on multiple days. Here is the opening prayer that was composed to be used from the Sunday before Ash Wednesday to the Tuesday before the feast:

Grant us oh Lord we pray
that the course of the world
may be directed by your peaceful rule
and that your Church may rejoice
untroubled in her devotion.
Through our Lord Jesus Christ, your son
Who lives and reigns with you in the Unity of the Holy Spirit
One God forever and ever, Amen!

This prayer was said at every Sunday mass yesterday and at every daily mass today and will be prayed at every daily mass tomorrow before Ash Wednesday which the Pope has asked the faithful to be a day of prayer and fasting for peace.

Now to those who have trained themselves to be blind to the works of God in their midst it’s a complete coincidence that a prayer written over five decades ago might be appropriate for the situation today.

But to the faithful who like Joe Morgan could see what was happening around him, it’s yet another example of the providence of God providing man with what they need just when they need it.

And like Joe Morgan once you pick up on this you’ll be surprised at what you see and notice all around you..

Six Things to Keep in Mind Concerning Ukraine and Russia

Posted: February 28, 2022 by datechguy in war
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Getting invaded doesn’t confer sainthood:

As noted at the Tablet (via Instapundit) Ukraine is knee deep in corruption of both the Biden and Obama administrations (the latter who put it in power. Being corrupt in financial and other matters does not preclude being brave and patriotic in others so keep this in mind when you react.

A Nation fighting for it’s life isn’t going to prioritize facts over survival

As I noted two days ago both Russia and the Ukraine have a vested interest in spreading a message favorable to their cause. Depriving Russia of that ability in the west or in Europe does not mean Ukraine is not going to do it’s best to spin news. This of course is a perfectly legitimate tactic in a war, particularly when a nation is fighting for it’s life against one of the world great powers but we should be very careful about simply believing everything we hear over the next few days.

The Media has Suddenly not become Honest or credible

A second thing to consider concerning the War in Ukraine is the media. There is no reason to suddenly attribute credibility and/or honesty to US or international media when they have spend decades demonstrating their dishonesty and lack of credibility. American media in particular are going to do their best to protect this administration for any responsibility for it’s failures of diplomacy and helping to create the conditions for this war. That’s been their primary concern for years and I see no reason why a war would change this, in fact I suspect they will do their best to not: “let this crisis go to waste.”

The End of the War will not be the end of it:

As Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire for a century before anyone heard of the Soviet Union the problems there will remain no matter how this ends. There is a large Russian minority in Ukraine and short of them migrating out it is going to remain there. How that minority is treated after the war is over if the Ukrainian government stands or how that minority treats ethnic Ukrainians if the Russians win will be a significant human rights issue that is going to be a real problem when it’s all over. (Side note to a lesser degree this is a common problem in former eastern bloc nations and likely drives Russia’s policy more than we in the west understand).

Both Europe and Russia will look at this differently than folks in the US

There is a famous exchange in the US Senate last century where someone noted to Richard Russell (D-GA) a hawk on defense hat the south was very military minded. Russell replied to the effect that if Sherman had marched through your state you’d be military minded too. This is in play both in Putin’s Moves and in Europe’s sudden willingness to make a unified response. In each of the last two centuries Russia has been invaded by the premiere military power of the day with the intent to conquer it. Meanwhile while there are very few left in Europe who served in World War two there are still plenty who remember living in the rubble of it trying to survive and the memory of being under the Soviet’s thumb during the cold war is very much in the living memory of those in Poland, the Baltic States and the other unwilling client states of the old Soviet Union. Dealing with Russia without taking that history into account would is a grave error with a competent administration, with this load of idiots it could be fatal, likewise Putin failure to take into account the reaction of a Europe suddenly facing a war without strong leadership from the US might actually undo all the subtle moves he has made for decades to emasculate the European West.

In the end it will all come down to will

No amount of writing, opinions, speeches or seeds brought to embassies is going to change the bottom line military facts on the ground and those facts depend on military reality not speeches by pols and Pundits and the two key realities have been pointed out by Stacy McCain who as usual has gotten to the the heart of the matter:

  1. If the Russians can fly in reinforcements rather than having to go in on the ground the entire game changes:

What I eventually concluded was that Russians were still in control at Gostomel or, at least, that the Ukrainian counterattack had not “destroyed” the Russian paratrooper force (as had been claimed), and when I woke up Friday, it was clear that not only had the Russian paratroopers held on, but that they were being reinforced, as helicopters were seen flying in low over the area. The most definitive report I found was from the Wall Street Journal:

Russian forces pouring in from neighboring Belarus through the Chernobyl nuclear disaster exclusion zone reached the outskirts of Kyiv. They took over the Hostomel airfield following an airborne assault on Thursday, and by Friday morning Russian armored forces reached the area. Heavy combat continued through the day, and Ukrainian troops blew up several bridges leading into Kyiv from the northwest.

If this is correct, then a Russian armored column has now reached Gostomel, so it’s no longer just paratroopers holding the airfield, which means that soon the Russians will be flying in all kinds of equipment, and this is less than 20 miles from downtown Kyiv.

2. If Kyiv (or Kiev as I’ve always known it) is encircled then it’s only a matter of time

Ukrainian resistance is still fierce and effective, and the Russians have failed to take Kyiv. On the other hand, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, the city is now “encircled” by Russian forces — i.e., the invaders control all the routes into the city. Kyiv is now besieged, in other words, and such affairs do not usually end well for the defenders. Western talk of sending military aid to Ukraine is thus rather belated, if there is no feasible way to deliver these materials to the Ukrainians now holed up in their capital.

I find it highly unlikely that Polish armor will suddenly appear to relieve the city nor do I think that the moves in place will be enough to change Putin’s mind. It comes down to this. If Putin has encircled Kyiv he can starve out the city which means it falls. That’s not going to stop resistance in fact it could become Afghanistan on steroids meaning that a Russian military victory followed by the installation of a pro-Putin government, while hell for Ukrainians might bleed Russia for years in a way a defeat might not

The real question is who will blink first Putin or the West. Presuming the City doesn’t fall this week that’s what it really comes down to and unlike the West Putin has a built in out but that’s a post for tomorrow.

Ukraine War Fallout: Toxic Masculinity & Microaggressions are SO last week

Posted: February 27, 2022 by datechguy in culture, war
Tags: , , ,

In peace we can make many of them ignore good and evil entirely; in danger, the issue is forced upon them in a guise to which even we cannot blind them. There is here a cruel dilemma before us. If we promoted justice and charity among men, we should be playing directly into the Enemy’s hands; but if we guide them to the opposite behaviour, this sooner or later produces (for He permits it to produce) a war or a revolution, and the undisguisable issue of cowardice or courage awakes thousands of men from moral stupor.

C.S. Lewis The Screwtape Letters #29

One of the most interesting side effects of the war in Ukraine is the sudden shift in the left on several things.

Last week the left was telling us that armed citizens are dangerous and no regular person needs a gun

This week the left suddenly deciding that civilians armed with military weapons as a good thing.

Last week “Toxic Masculinity” was a curse that universities needed to purge using tools like Critical Race Theory to get this poison out of society.

This week the Masculinity of standing up to Tanks, Air Bombings and Fleets demanding surrender is something to produce awe and admiration.

Last week running away from Truckers who were honking horns at people was a good thing as US democrats overwhelmingly supported Trudeau

This week not running away from bombs etc and declaring “I don’t need a ride I need ammunition” is the template for how leaders should act.

This week you see everything from the Simpsons to Hollywood stars to members of congress celebrating the brave Ukrainian people.

But last week if you took the average Ukrainian now fighting the Russians, a white Christian who doesn’t believe in gay marriage, defines a woman by her sex and if asked tells you there is only two genders in the US, those same people celebrating them today would demand they be cancelled and or fired from any public position they hold.

The optimist in me would like to say this is because reality tends to trump woke stupidity and the realty of an actual war causes one to brush aside all the foolishness that people insulated from danger embrace.

But the realist tells me that the left understands that the fall of Ukraine would be a disaster politically for the left and their message worldwide and so they will jump with enthusiasm to defend them. That is defend them rhetorically, not in person of course That’s just as well a person who needs counseling for microaggressions is not likely to cope with battlefield conditions.

BTW if you are a true believer in the whole woke canon and are shocked and disgusted by this sudden volta face of the elites and their followers have no fear. Once the war is over and the danger to Ukraine the left’s political viability is past, all of those things that they are now celebrating will once again be beyond the pale.

Unexpectedly of course.

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