Posts Tagged ‘Ukraine’

The Ultimate Ukraine Irony

Posted: November 27, 2022 by datechguy in war
Tags: , , ,

Something hit me today concerning Russia with it’s army and reputation it the worst position it’s been in since Japan rolled over them at the turn of the last century.

Poland, Romania and Hungry along with the Baltic States all have a grievance with Russia over a half century of enslavement under communist rule not to mention their invasion from the east while they were trying to fight off the Nazi’s in the west. The wounds are still there and the fear of Russian Invasion after the fact never really left.

Ironically now the Pols have one of the most modern tank forces in the world, they are well trained, highly united as a country and very invested in a Ukrainian victory but there is one fact more.

If Poland decided to use it’s army and take revenge on Russia it is very likely that the Russians would not be in a position to stop them from going deep into their territory and there is no longer a US ready to provide lend lease to supply them in the event of such a war. Particularly if the other states who all own Russia a bloody nose decided to join in under the theory that there will never be a better chance to end the danger from Russia once and for all.

Now it’s my opinion that the Pols have no interest in doing so and are happy enough with the knowledge that Russia has has to fear them, but if they did decide they wanted to go after them only two things would stop them

  1. Russia’s Nukes
  2. NATO

That’s the ultimate Irony, right now NATO is the single strongest guarantor of the territorial integrity of Russia in the west.

Who woulda thunk it?

President Trump has announced that he is running to return to the White House. Can somebody explain to me why if so many people are positive that he is going to destroy the chances of the GOP in 2024 why so many on the left are doing all they can to prevent him from even being elegible?

or president

Amazon is laying off 10,000 just before Black Friday. Let those of you who have insisted that we’re not in a recession let that sink in.

At my own warehouse we’ve gone from Friday being mandatory to people being offered yesterday and today off. Frankly I was tempted to take today but I’ve been out sick so many days lately I figured I’d better turn up.

I’m telling you this, if this country returns Biden to the White House after this economy then we deserve everything that happens to us and more.

A lot of fuss is being made about the rockets that hit Poland this weeks. There was a rush to blame Russia until it was discovered that is was a Ukrainian rocket. Let’s remember a few things about war that our friends who never studied it and know nothing about it need to know:

  1. Accidents happen in war, from Friendly fire to malfunctioning equipment. It’s very easy to screw up when you’re working under the pressure of someone else trying to kill you.
  2. Information is a weapon in war. All sides are going to release info to try to gain the support of others. Anyone who blindly believes what a belligerent in war says is a dope and deserves to be deceived.
  3. No plan, regardless of how elegant or well conceived survives contact with the enemy and real world conditions.

Given the track record of the “experts” on this war I’m shocked anyone consults with them.

A lot of people have conveniently forgotten that just before the war started Biden talked about the Russian seizure of the eastern parts of Ukraine as a fait accompli something to be accepted and let’s not forget he was in a hurry to get Zelensky out of there before he was turned down.

The real irony however is that Putin was likely encouraged by Biden’s show of weakness and because of this the Russians bit off more than they could chew and were revealed to be the paper tiger they apparently are. If Trump had been in Putin wouldn’t have moved period and the world would still be terrified of the Russian army instead of using it as a punchline.

That’s the dictionary definition of a Homer

Finally if you have to sum up COVID and the left in a single tweet I don’t think you can do better than this:

If this was 150 years ago the lampposts of this nation would be full of “experts”

One of the things that has really been revealed by the war in Ukraine is just how weak and unready the Russian Army is. Moreover a lot of Russians were in favor of the war in Ukraine when it looked like it would be a cakewalk to retake the territory that until the breakup of the Soviet Union was part of Russia proper since the days of Napoleon, but once it became clear that it would involve actually fighting, actual causalities and a mobilization the whole pride thing went out the window.

It’s amazing how much harder war is when people are willing to shoot back rather than roll over. I would not be surprised if this lesions the fear of China’s untested military as well.

It’s a tough call for Ukraine when it comes to how the war ends.

They have a good point that they don’t want to reward Russia with any gains but the longer the war goes on the more likely Putin decides to play the tactical nuke game. Ukraine can likely get the best deal it could get right now but in the words of Lincoln if they consider this war for a purpose they see no reason to end it before that purpose is achieved.

Since it’s their blood that being spilled it’s their call, as long as I don’t have to keep paying for it.

This story via Gateway Pundit made me smile:

I predict that in the woke sweepstakes Muslims trump gays, drag queens and transsexuals’ for two reasons:

  1. The Muslim population of the US continues to grow
  2. There have been unfortunate and unhealthy consequences for those who defy those communities

One of the reasons why Sicilian American’s like myself don’t mind people associating us with the mob is it make people less likely to try to mess with us (also we don’t give a damn what others think). With the reputation of Islam backed up by 30 years of shall we call them “incidents” I suspect school committees are going to think twice before they mess with them.

Sometime in the next month we are likely going to see a pivot in tech companies.

Once they decide they can not stop the GOP from winning the House and perhaps the Senate they are going to be a lot more hesitant to oppress members of the GOP when there is a prospect of lawmakers striking back.

Now of course as long as they control the White House and the Justice Department they have a modicum of protection and I’m sure they’ll go all in no matter who the GOP nominee is but most companies don’t want grief and don’t want scrutiny and when it becomes clear who is going to win I suspect these firms will decide to be on the winning side.

Finally a lot of people I know have dropped Paypal like a hot potato. Being a person who is a tad more deliberate I’ve decided to wait till after the first of the year.

This will give me time to decide what I’m replacing it with, to contact donors to see if they wish to switch to whatever service I go over to and to evaluate my opitions.

Also in terms of taxes and their preparation it will be easier to have the account active through at least January.

This does involve some risk but if I’m right about the tech pivot that should give me enough leeway to move deliberately without a lot of worry. If I’m wrong, then it’s on me.

One of the reasons why Russia has as feared a reputation as a military power is their victories over Hitler’s Germany & Napoleon’s France in invasions whose failures changed the course of history.

Of of the things overlooked about both of these events is that they had a lot of help in the sense that England was supporting them financially vs Napoleon while fighting a 2nd front in Spain and at Sea while the US was supplying them with millions of dollars of supplies to keep them going.

In Short with help and allies Russia is a terror when something is trying to invade their homeland, against decent militaries Poland 1920’s, Japan 1890’s Finland 1939 and not Ukraine 2022 not so much.

One of the things that has really hurt Russia in this sense has been the unreality of their military. When you have a one man kleptocracy that puts contracts to friends the idea of actually doing what you claim to be doing with the money doesn’t happen, particularly when if anyone complains they might disappear and the media will back up the powers that be.

I suspect that a lot of the Russian logistical support that they thought they had in terms of supplies and other things actually went into the back pockets of Putin and his allies and has gone there for years so now that they actually need these things they only exist on paper.

I suspect even Putin didn’t realize the full extent of it and nobody had the balls to tell him.

Given that more and more the media and tech are shielding Democrats here at home from this kind of thing don’t be surprised if this becomes the end result for us both in terms of Military and in terms of civilian infastructure. We’re becoming a big Chicago where it’s all graft all the time.

This is indeed Obama’s 3rd term.

A lot of people have forgotten this but remember when this war had not started yet the Biden administration was busy trying to get Ukraine to cede the territory that Russia wanted and was ready to fly out their president to a comfortable exile. It was as if the deal with the US was already made to Putin to take over.

The biggest surprise to everyone still remains that the Ukrainian President decided to fight rather than just take the money and run and it likely remains along with the attack of 9/11/01 the biggest single pivot point in world history in the 21st century.

As I recall at the time nobody called it and everyone expected him to die in Ukraine or in exile. His The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride,” is going rank in history with Churchill’s “We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender”

Of course the big thing is that while both Churchill and Zelensky stood for defending their country to the last the big difference is Churchill wasn’t a thief in charge of a kleptocracy and Zelensky is. A lot of people are going to get immensely rich off of Zelensky Ukraine being saved and he’s going to do pretty well himself. In that sense he is more comparable to Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand, prince de Bénévent the French Diplomat who managed to be a part of government from the French Monarchy to the revolution to Napoleon and back to Monarchy without losing his head or wealth or influence.

Of course to the Ukrainian people fighting for the survival of their country the whole question of graft if moot. Their primary goal is survival an victory and it it means a bunch of people and companies both foreign and domestic lining their pockets in the process they’re not going to care all that much as long as they win.

Elon Musk is getting a lot of pushback for his suggested settlement of the war:

If this was offered the 2nd week the west would have pushed Ukraine to sign on the dotted line and a lot of folks in Ukraine would have gone along, now with Russia in retreat the Ukrainians aren’t all that keen to give an inch, even with Putin mobilizing and rattling the nuclear cage.

Also the pool of graft money is smaller in peace than in war as rebuilding requires actual structures, you can’t claim to have shot away the concrete for a building.

I don’t blame the Ukrainians for balking but Petraeus not withstanding I’m not in favor of a nuclear war for the sake of Ukraine taking back those last two Russian occupied areas.

The real question mark here is Putin. Right now are the Russians willing or able to dump him and if so what replaces him? Does Putin go nuclear to win the war? Does Russia back up such an order? Does Putin make a deal and “declare victory”.

And what about the Russian people? Ukraine was historically part of Russia for a very long time and a lot of Russians likely backed the war seeing it restoring a part of Russia back to Russia but as soon as it proved to be not a romp but a disaster and a killing ground for their sons likely decided it wasn’t worth it, after all World War 2 was about survival, this is just about pride.

Frankly this would be the best time for Ukraine to make some kind of deal. They are more likely to get the max advantage without the threat of a nuclear war while the Russians are running scared then when the mobilization is complete and a weakened Putin is likely less of threat than an unknown successor.

In once sense the west already has more than it hoped for in terms of neutralizing the Russian military as a threat in the end those its Ukraine’s call as they bear the primary cost in lives and the primary risk of being nuked. My thought is if Ukrainian people want to fight on and bear the costs of it, it’s a just cause and it’s on them, but it’s their war not ours.