Archive for the ‘war’ Category

A Dozen Hard Facts Concerning Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Posted: February 26, 2022 by datechguy in war
Tags: , ,

Fact 1: We aren’t going to do anything beyond loud noises (and Russia knows this)

The Biden all but invited the Russians to take pieces of Ukraine and Putin took him up on it. With the weak response given to his initial moves Putin knows that if he wants the whole shebang the time to take it is now not only because Biden is weak but more importantly he understands the 2nd fact in play…

Fact 2: We couldn’t do anything even if we wanted to at this point. (and Russia knows this)

It takes time to mobilize troops, to gather munitions, to send them places and to have all the logistical means to fight a war. To do it right takes months, to do it fast takes weeks. None of this prep work has been done so if somehow we decided Ukraine was worth fighting for Putin knows he has a MINIMUM of a three week window to finish the job to the point where he would have a fait accompli meaning we would have to literally counter invade. Even if it was possible that we might get our machinery of war moving Putin understands a more basic fact concerning us…

Fact 3: We are not culturally prepared to do anything. (and Russia knows this) Our post Christian ME society is not up to the task of fighting a war with Russia, the people very happy to answer Ukraine’s call to send angry tweets to Russia but when it comes to actually standing up against aggression, hell we aren’t willing to stop people from burning our own cities. Putin knows this but there is something he knows even more…

Fact 4: The only enemy our Military Leaders are Prepared to Fight are Conservatives: (And Russia knows this) Ethan Saunders might have been speaking tongue in cheek when he said: “Our military leaders will run away at the first sign of a microaggression or a misgendering. This isn’t the same kind of war their 2 mommies fought in.” but the reality is that the leadership of our Military has been pretty much at war not only with severing members of the Armed Forces but with those who would normally be the primary candidates to enter the military service. They are ready to go after conservatives on CNN or Twitter but to face Russia in battle? Forget it Of course the Russians aren’t surprised by this because…

Fact 5: All of this is by design (and Russia knows this) Our foes figured out long ago that there was no way they were going to outspend us so instead of trying to outdo us on the weapons side they invested in people, our people, professors to teach our children that America was evil, and/or not fighting for, environmentalists (green on the outside red on the inside) to make the idea of energy production something evil and all kinds of activists to attack the family , religion and all the things that make a strong society. And of course they bought people, pols and reporters and the fruits of these investments both long term and short are now coming into play. They know the US isn’t coming and without the west almost nobody is coiming.

Fact 6: The Biggest Danger to the Russians are the Poles: (And Russia knows this) The reason the last section says “almost” is the Pols. The Pols have a long history of enmity with Russia not only a ton of it in the last hundred years but much more that goes back centuries . The Pols have resisted the EU trying to go after their Catholic faith and impose the culture wars on them. They know what it’s like to be subjected by Russia and have built an Army strong enough to keep it from happening even without NATO. If the Pols choose to mobilize every single dynamic that Putin is counting on changes.

Fact 7: Ukraine isn’t going to roll over either. The Ukrainians hate the Russians and the feeling is mutual Stalin did a number on them and because of that quite a few joined up with the Germans to fight Russia after they invaded. As demonstrated they are quite willing to fight and die rather than be subjugated and they are in a position to make the Russians pay a very high price to take and keep their country.

Fact 8: Protests not withstanding this isn’t going to be an unpopular war with Russians at the start. Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire for a hundred years before the Soviets took over and I suspect most Russians consider this taking back what’s theirs. As long as the war doesn’t drag on too long and the price in bodies isn’t too high Putin will get away this this domestically. if the Ukrainians are able to hold on and make Russia and their proxy soldiers pay this could change.

Fact 9: Most Americas don’t understand how real war works. When my grandparents got here in 1906 it had been 40 years since the last full scale war on American soil and over two decades since the last serious Indian wars. It’s been 50 years or so since the last draft and we have young people whose concept of war are video games where the bodies fade away and you have automatic Ammo and food and don’t have to find a way to make sure your troops can eat, sleep and shit securely. Even if everything breaks Russia’s way it’s going to be a long hard slog to conquer 41 million people dead set against being conquered, particularly when they’re led by a guy who when offered help in getting out of the country answers: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Fact 10: In the end the Average American doesn’t Consider Ukraine worth fighting for. In the end there isn’t a huge Ukrainian population in America. There is no tie of religion and culture, there is very little interest in the county, most Americans couldn’t find it on a map. They are not a NATO ally and the only reason why the US has any obligations in this direct is Bill Clinton’s promise to defend them if they gave up their Nukes, proving once and for all that trusting Bill Clinton is still one of the dumbest things a person can do.

Fact 11: Everyone knows the easiest way to hurt Russia but the left opposes it The bottom line is the easiest way to hurt Russia is to ramp up energy production from Coal to Fracking to Pipelines to Nuclear. However the left as already noted is too invested in this so it will not happen.

Fact 12: We don’t know all the facts or the endgame Even forgetting that you never know what the spin from a war zone is from either side one must remember that the same press that insisted that Trump was in bed with Putin and has been lying to us concerning just about everything over the last several years is the primary source of our info. Lord Miles Routledge not withstanding take everything else you hear with a grain of salt. We don’t know Putin’s or Russia’s endgame nor do we know Ukraine’s endgame. With a competent intelligence agency and a strong President this would not be a good place to be in. With a weak president and an incompetent intelligence community it’s a recipe for disaster Doing the wrong thing for the sake of doing something is not better than doing nothing. What’s the best thing to do? I don’t know.

Five Putin, Biden Admin & Trudeau Thoughts Under the Fedora

Posted: February 25, 2022 by datechguy in Uncomfortable Truths, war
Tags: , , , , ,

I must confess I didn’t think Putin was going to be going beyond the moves into the two breakaway regions but then again given both Biden’s feckless response and the knowledge that the polling in the US is looking bad for the Democrats who enable him I guess he figured he better grab what he can now before the leadership in the US changes.

And you thought stealing a US election was going to bring back normalcy.

A lot of people are thinking Taiwan is next on the menu figuring that China might see things the same way as Putin, move while America is still weak. Of course it’s a lot harder. You’re talking a D-Day like invasion against a well armed foe that realizes it has nothing to lose by going all out. Additionally such a move is going to have an electric effect on Japan and I suspect China is not all that anxious for either a rearmed or a nuclear armed Japan deciding to calculate if a first strike is necessary.

And please don’t insult me with the “Japan doesn’t have nukes” stuff. Japan has all the technology and expertise to have nukes any time they want them. If they decide on Ash Wednesday (Mar 2nd) that they need nukes they’ll have them before Easter Sunday (April 17th). Of course they would be likely to go the Israel route of not admitting they have the bomb but rest assured if China scares them they will.

There have been a lot of dumb takes on Ukraine from their government asking people to send Russia mean tweets (yeah like Russia cares) to John Kerry worrying about the effect of climate change of this war to worries about the vaccine status of people escaping bombs, however if you had to pick the single most ironic it was Justin Trudeau grandstanding on how Canada would stand firm against Authoritarianism.

Given his actions of the last month this broke irony meters everywhere but I suspect Justin was delighted to have the eyes of the world someplace other than Canada.

Apparently Trudeau’s had picked Senate (70% Trudeau appointed) was going to reject his emergency extension that every member of his party voted for just a few days ago. Additionally the harm to Canadian banks by the freezing of assets of those who dared expressed dissent put a bad taste in people’s mouths.

I think Canada, Truedau and the Banks that backed him up will discover it’s a lot easier to throw away trust and faith then it is to get it back once you’ve tossed it out the window.

Personally I think Any person who keeps money in a Canadian bank is a fool.

Finally let’s point out something that any person should know. Biden provided the funds for Putin’s invasion. As Walter Olsen (via Insty) put it:

Because fuel exports are the basis of the Russian economy, Putin’s war-making capability depends critically on energy prices being high, as they are now. The most effective step countries like the U.S. can take in response does not require sanctions, let alone military action. It’s simply to remove artificial constraints on energy production, especially on relatively clean natural gas. That means removing roadblocks to fracking, pipelines and LNG export facilities that could supply Europe.

The Biden’s Administration’s reaction to this invasion is basically a paraphrase of the episode Yes Prime Minister where the Israeli ambassador tells Jim Hacker that his foreign office in response to an invention by east Yemen: will “make strong diplomatic representations but do nothing” except our diplomatic representations will be weak.

I’ll give the last word to Glenn Reynolds:

 there’s more reason to think that environmentalists and other energy-deniers are on the Russian payroll than there ever was for Trump.

I’m sure Joe & Company got their cut.

The military never cared about religion

Posted: December 4, 2021 by copperhilltradingco in News/opinion, war
Tags: , , , ,

While I don’t have a print subscription to the Military Times newspapers, I still get their morning email, and today’s headline featured the US Navy not accepting any religious exemptions for the COVID vaccine:

As the deadline for active-duty sailors to get the mandatory COVID-19 vaccine passed Monday, the sea service has yet to grant any vaccine exemptions on the basis of religious accommodation, according to figures released Tuesday.

As of Tuesday, 2,531 requests for exemption from the vaccine mandate had been filed by sailors on religious grounds, though officials could not say how many of those requests had been ruled upon.

Navy Times

I’m not surprised, because in my experience, the Navy (and most services) don’t really care about your religious beliefs. Never have, never will, because in today’s service, the service is the religion.

I noticed this trend when I first joined the Navy. I remember having to beg the Commanding Officer on my submarine to get a mere 45 minutes off on Sunday to hold Catholic services. Mind you, we weren’t on mission, at war, or even strapped for time, but he couldn’t be bothered, and it wasn’t until I talked with the squadron chaplain that I was grudgingly granted the time. This was despite the fact that there are plenty of instructions stating that time and space will be provided unless a submarine is on mission or executing critical duties. My Commanding Officer viewed my request as a nuisance, and he told me as much to my face.

It wasn’t just one CO though. At multiple duty stations, there would be this unwillingness to grant military members the time off to celebrate their faith, be it Christian, Jewish or anything else. In Bahrain, where Sunday is considered a workday, I essentially caused a small office revolt by going to noon Mass on Sunday and telling my boss I simply wasn’t going to work yet another 12 hour work day when we weren’t in crisis mode. I distinctly remember the Admiral there telling us at an all-hands call that he was expecting 6 day work weeks, and even most Saturday mornings, despite no apparent need to do so. It was like the Navy was his “god,” and he couldn’t pray enough while slogging through the mass of self-induced paperwork at his desk.

If the Navy can’t provide a simple hour for Mass once a week, its no surprise they won’t approve vaccine exemptions. Now, to be fair, I encourage people to vaccinate because I think its far better than catching COVID, but I also don’t really think its a hill worth dying on or kicking people out over, similar to why I don’t think we should be stopping everything to chase the extremely tiny number of extremists that might exist in the ranks.

Kicking people out over a COVID vaccine is just one more reason the Navy is going to be hurting for recruitment come 2024-2025. The lip service paid to everything from ship maintenance and strategy to human resources and bonuses is becoming more obvious every day. People are catching on that the Navy views itself as its own religion, and if you’re not willing to worship, then you’ll be shown the door.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. If you liked this article, consider supporting the author by purchasing his book for either yourself or as a Christmas gift.

Paying in cash vs. paying in blood

Posted: November 27, 2021 by ng36b in News/opinion, Uncomfortable Truths, war
Tags: , , , , ,

One of the major differences between the influence that China wields verses the former Soviet Union relates to China’s use of monetary incentives. The US and British defectors that sold nuclear, diplomatic and other state secrets to the Russians from the 40’s until the Soviet Union collapsed were not normally paid a lot of money. Only four ever made over $1 million, and those were only the ones that sold out significant secrets, such as Aldrich Ames identifying nearly ever top US recruit in major Soviet institutions. Most of these turncoats were motivated by ideology. They truly believed in the Soviet Union, right up to the end, and were quite willing to give our enemies secrets for cheap.

China is different. You don’t have to subscribe to China’s idealogy to be on their doll. China willingly flexes its financial muscles to buy people off. Even worse, China is happy to do this quite blazenly and openly. There isn’t a more perfect example then Hollywood right now. Did you notice the nod to China in the movie Midway? Or the pandering by actors like John Cena to Chinese audiences? Sure, maybe some of these people really believe that China is better than the US, but likely most are simply gold digging, and China offers lots of gold for those that toe the line.

This is coming to a head in the Solomon Islands right now, in this week’s very underreported story. Riots (not of the “mostly peaceful” variety) are happening in the Solomon Islands, an island nation that most Americans only remember from a World War 2 battle on the island of Guadalcanal. Located just north of Australia, the Solomon Islands operated in Australia’s sphere of influence for a long time. Australia provided government support and significant economic investment in mining, forestry and other areas. In exchange, the Solomon Islands were relatively peaceful, at least with their neighboring countries.

That has changed though. Manasseh Sogavare, the current Prime Minister, oversaw the end of the Australian mission to the Solomons in 2017. Not long after, the Solomon Islands stopped recognizing Taiwan and instead recognized the PRC. Almost immediately, Australian investments started to disappear, with Chinese firms replacing them. Everything from gold mines to logging is focused on, or has been purchased by, China. Heck, even China state run media says the Solomon Islands will be a Chinese hub soon.

The point here is China is building its empire with cash. When Japan attempted to invade a large portion of the Pacific, it ultimately lost because it was difficult to pacify that large of a population. Germany had the same struggles, losing significant numbers of troops in the post-invasion peace keeping operations in places like Poland and the former Yugoslavia. China avoids paying in blood for its conquests by simply throwing cash at the problem. Buy off a government, and they’ll let you take their resources via debt diplomacy. What’s not to love? You get what you want without having to use your military power.

If war comes to the Pacific, China won’t need to pull a Pearl Harbor moment to capture territory like the Japanese did in WW2. Instead, we will be the ones paying in blood to recapture territory and resources China simply purchased outright. Sadly, we will likely be seen as invaders, and will suffer the same consequences Germany and Japan did during WW2.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. You can support the author by reading and rating his books on Amazon, and with Christmas coming, every little bit helps!

Older Entries
Newer Entries