…as the latest gallup poll (via memorandum) shows that those tea-party conservatives are onto something.
Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.
Even more important are the trends:
The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter.
So we aren’t dealing with just a single poll we are dealing with a bunch of em.
Lets put it another way. Assuming that conservatives won’t persuade liberals or vice versa conservatives only need to persuade just over one out of every 4 moderates to get to 51% they need to persuade slightly over 1 out of every 4 moderates.
And lets look at the other side of the coin, liberals need to persuade better than 3 out of every 4 moderates to vote with them in order to get 51%.
And even if moderates are turned off by a conservative candidate liberals STILL need to persuade 1 out of every two moderates to support them in order to get to 51%!
One of the great victories of liberalism and the MSM over time has been their ability to persuade Republicans that they desperately need moderates when in fact it is democrats who need them. Sheer math tells us that it is much more productive to solidify one’s base.
This is the Lesson of NY-23. If they don’t learn it then Republicans will continue to lose and deservedly so. As the Jammie Wearing fool says:
if only the Republican Party would wake up and start supporting conservative candidates instead of these weak-kneed RINOs. Much of the promising news from this polls shows a trend of independents moving to the right, which does not bode well for the Democrats as we enter the 2010 election cycle.
Meanwhile the NRCC continues to back Dede, when asked about it the quote of the day is:
Asked why so many prominent Republicans had thrown their support to Hoffman, the official responded, “We’re dealing with data, not hopes and dreams.”
You want data, there’s your data!
Vote Hoffman
Update: If the republicans aren’t careful they will be playing Captain John Earle to the tea party’s Lt. Kaminsky.
