Many analysts are wringing their hands about the elevation of Chinese President Xi Jinping to an unprecedented third term as head of the Beijing government.
The United States should worry about his intentions because Xi has made it clear that he’s a bad guy. Our government has failed to see that in Chinese leaders like Xi since we have played footsy with them over the last 50 years, hoping to make friends and allowing them to steal, murder, and pillage at home and abroad.
During the four summers I traveled all over China, I saw the good, the bad, and the ugly.
The Chinese build stuff well, particularly roads and bridges. But the country has overbuilt high rises in an investment boom, leaving many vacant apartment complexes.
I remember one Chinese guide asking me: Do you know the Chinese national bird? The crane. The construction crane.
Because of the overbuilding inside China, jobs had to be found for trained construction workers. That helped to create the Belt and Road campaign—a mixture of exporting jobs and gaining allies with massive building projects worldwide. Instead, many developing nations owe Beijing billions of dollars from loans, creating far less benefit than Xi wanted.
Many of my students came from wealthy families who made their money in the private sector. Xi has moved away from the recent trend toward capitalism, potentially alienating those with money.
Although the Communist Party holds almost absolute control over the people, few become members. Virtually all my students hated the mandatory class in the philosophy of Mao, which is required in all universities.
Although the Communist government doesn’t tolerate political dissent, there seems to be a growing resentment of President Xi, particularly after his total clampdown during COVID. Nevertheless, dissidents have become more public, particularly outside the mainland.
More importantly, Xi pushed out or passed over many influential people inside the party. It will be challenging to determine how his actions in the party may ultimately hurt him, mainly since his new economic team seems quite unprepared for the road ahead.
That lack of confidence sent the New York and Chinese markets spiraling downward within hours of Xi’s ascendance.
China also faces some internal economic woes. The one-child policy, which was only recently changed, has left China with an aging population with huge benefits and a dwindling younger population that want office jobs rather than assembly line work.
Although the Chinese military buildup, particularly air and naval, should concern the United States, China hasn’t fought a war in decades. That means no one at the top of the military food chain has experienced the fog of war. That’s a huge minus for China—one quite like what we’re seeing with Russia in Ukraine.
Perhaps most important, the United States knows China is an enemy—not a friend. That’s an important realization. We cannot depend on China for critical minerals. We cannot rely on shipments of anything from China, as we saw during the supply line crisis during COVID.
All told, the elevation of President Xi should worry the United States. But it also serves as a needed wake-up call.
When my dad retired from the Marine Corps after 20 years of service, I don’t think he knew what to do with himself. He legitimately had a mid-life crisis, flipping back and forth a bit until he settled into a job as a program manager for the government. For him, going from a 20 year career that had everything laid out for him to being his own person was a bit of a jarring change.
The United States is having that same jarring change right now. In the past, the US was the world’s only true superpower, and it sought to insert itself into…well, everything. From running banana republics in Central and South America to putting troops in darn near every country in the Middle East and Africa, the US had decided it would be in all places at all times. This was pretty costly and required a lot of defense spending, but it gave the US the ability to respond to any crisis whatsoever.
It also gave every nation aligned with the US the excuse to not have a military. Countries around the world spent their money on universal health care and various forms of social security. Why not? They didn’t need a big defense budget, because the US covered that. These countries tolerated the US essentially running the financial and technology sectors because it allowed them to get rich with little risk. For a while, this worked well, especially as the Soviet Union fell apart, China continued to kill its own people and terrorism remained a local issue.
That’s all changing. The US has embraced a multi-polar world with China as a major player and Russia, the EU, UK, Japan and India as minor players. I say embraced because if the US truly wanted to be a superpower, we’d have built a hypersonic nuclear missile base on the moon and threatened to wipe China off the map if they step too far. Seriously. You can’t tell me that we watched China research weaponry for years that would defeat our defense system and were surprised when it worked? We had to know, and multiple people at high levels of government simply shrugged and said “oh well.”
This multi-polar world runs on different rules though. One rule is that superpowers get a sphere of influence and other superpowers have to stay out of it. China and Russia both consider themselves superpowers, so they take authoritarian actions in what they consider their sphere of influence. They will tolerate some minor transgressions (like US Navy Freedom of Navigation patrols), but ultimately they will do what they want without regard for anyone else.
Why is Putin willing to invade Ukraine and shell cities with no regards for civilian casualties? Because he’s a superpower and he gets to make the rules in his sphere. If you don’t like it, well, too bad.
Most Americans, including most liberals, are operating on rules fit for one superpower. In the past, if we, the US, told two nations to knock it off, they would. With one superpower, you can basically stare down an opponent and make them stop with limited military action. Think Korea and Vietnam, where we stopped Communist governments from expanding without declaring war or using nuclear weapons.
But using this set of rules on Ukraine doesn’t work. We can literally cut Russia off from everything and they will continue to do what they want, because we’re treating them as equals.
This isn’t to say we should send troops to Ukraine. There are good reasons to stay out. I was strongly supportive of President Trump’s decision to stay out of Syria, since we had no real interests there, and far better to let the Russians get bogged down then us. Ukraine might be different, and maybe we have good reasons to go there. If so, we need to be very open about them and understand it will put us in direct conflict with a nation that has nuclear weapons. That’s OK, by the way, if we’re open and honest about it and understand the potential consequences.
We can’t play by unilateral rules in a multilateral world, and we’re suffering consequences for it. Everyone applauded the crippling sanctions, but already nations are finding alternatives to the US Dollar and the SWIFT system of banking. They see whats happening to Russia and they know it could happen to them. Watch how more countries, including non-authoritarian countries, discover how to build their own industries, financial institutions and economies in order to beat future sanctions.
The US forgot that it grew up into a superpower, and now its having a mid-life identity crisis.
This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. If you enjoyed this article, please support the author by purchasing one of his books for you or a friend.
One of the major differences between the influence that China wields verses the former Soviet Union relates to China’s use of monetary incentives. The US and British defectors that sold nuclear, diplomatic and other state secrets to the Russians from the 40’s until the Soviet Union collapsed were not normally paid a lot of money. Only four ever made over $1 million, and those were only the ones that sold out significant secrets, such as Aldrich Ames identifying nearly ever top US recruit in major Soviet institutions. Most of these turncoats were motivated by ideology. They truly believed in the Soviet Union, right up to the end, and were quite willing to give our enemies secrets for cheap.
China is different. You don’t have to subscribe to China’s idealogy to be on their doll. China willingly flexes its financial muscles to buy people off. Even worse, China is happy to do this quite blazenly and openly. There isn’t a more perfect example then Hollywood right now. Did you notice the nod to China in the movie Midway? Or the pandering by actors like John Cena to Chinese audiences? Sure, maybe some of these people really believe that China is better than the US, but likely most are simply gold digging, and China offers lots of gold for those that toe the line.
This is coming to a head in the Solomon Islands right now, in this week’s very underreported story. Riots (not of the “mostly peaceful” variety) are happening in the Solomon Islands, an island nation that most Americans only remember from a World War 2 battle on the island of Guadalcanal. Located just north of Australia, the Solomon Islands operated in Australia’s sphere of influence for a long time. Australia provided government support and significant economic investment in mining, forestry and other areas. In exchange, the Solomon Islands were relatively peaceful, at least with their neighboring countries.
That has changed though. Manasseh Sogavare, the current Prime Minister, oversaw the end of the Australian mission to the Solomons in 2017. Not long after, the Solomon Islands stopped recognizing Taiwan and instead recognized the PRC. Almost immediately, Australian investments started to disappear, with Chinese firms replacing them. Everything from gold mines to logging is focused on, or has been purchased by, China. Heck, even China state run media says the Solomon Islands will be a Chinese hub soon.
The point here is China is building its empire with cash. When Japan attempted to invade a large portion of the Pacific, it ultimately lost because it was difficult to pacify that large of a population. Germany had the same struggles, losing significant numbers of troops in the post-invasion peace keeping operations in places like Poland and the former Yugoslavia. China avoids paying in blood for its conquests by simply throwing cash at the problem. Buy off a government, and they’ll let you take their resources via debt diplomacy. What’s not to love? You get what you want without having to use your military power.
If war comes to the Pacific, China won’t need to pull a Pearl Harbor moment to capture territory like the Japanese did in WW2. Instead, we will be the ones paying in blood to recapture territory and resources China simply purchased outright. Sadly, we will likely be seen as invaders, and will suffer the same consequences Germany and Japan did during WW2.
This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. You can support the author by reading and rating his books on Amazon, and with Christmas coming, every little bit helps!
Did you hear about the massive organized protest by American conservatives of the Toyko Olympics?
No?
That’s because there wasn’t one.
The 2020 Summer Olympics, delayed a year because of the COVID-19 pandemic, got off to a bad start, unless you are woke.
In a women’s soccer match between Team USA and Sweden, athletes from both sides took a knee rather than stand for the Star Spangled Banner. Sweden won the match, 3-0. The US women’s soccer team was the overwhelming favorite to win a gold medal in Tokyo, it ended up with the bronze.
Earlier this year the International Olympic Committee rescinded its Rule 50, which stated “No kind of demonstration or political, religious or racial propaganda is permitted in any Olympic sites, venues or other areas.”
The Olympics are a dying movement. More on that in a bit. But the woke protests just add accelerant to the fire.
In competitive sports success of course is achieved by winning a game, crossing the finish line first, or lifting the heaviest object, or throwing it the farthest.
The Olympics are a big business, despite being comprised of not-for-profits such as the United States Olympic and Paralympic Committee, or more commonly in other nations by government ministries of sport.
The big money for the Olympics comes from TV rights and revenue for the broadcasters. If you envision television ratings as a shot put, then that heavy ball appears to have been thrown by a weak child.
NBC is giving advertisers who bought airtime during the Tokyo Olympics extra commercials due to underwhelming ratings for this year’s 2020 Olympic Games, fueled by a pandemic-weary population and backlash against woke athletes protesting the U.S. flag and national anthem.
NBC Sports Chairman Pete Bevacqua insisted to the Associated Press that the network would still make money on the 2020 Olympics – but left out details about how much.
NBC’s primetime coverage of the Tokyo Olympics on July 26 averaged 14.7 million viewers — for a 49% drop compared to the equivalent night from the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games and 53% less than the 2012 London Olympics. The opening ceremonies saw their lowest viewership since 1988.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know, there are more television offerings than ever. And some people will watch Olympics segments on NBC’s YouTube channel and those viewership numbers are not included in the network’s ratings total.
But the viewership numbers still suck.
Wokism likely contributed to the ratings rout. That may change soon as conservatives are mobilizing against Critical Race Theory and the Democrats’ hard shove to the far-left, but conservatives don’t have a boycott apparatus in place, such as the liberals do with medium-sized groups such as Media Matters and tiny Twitter armies such as Sleeping Giants. That’s because those on the American right calmly reach for the remote and watch something else when they are offended. Or they simply stop buying products, such as what I did after Gillette ran its toxic masculinity television commercial two years ago. I loved its Good News razors. But I don’t want to put money into the hands of a company that insults me. And now I use Bic razors–which I like better and I probably never would have considered purchasing until that nasty commercial. Gillette owes Bic a finder’s fee for making me a customer. [Corrrection: a commenter mentioned that it should have been written the other way around.]
People watch sports, or buy tickets to live events, for many reasons, but the drama of a competitive event is likely the primary one. Not for the politics, that’s for sure.
And conservatives don’t need a Media Matters-type group to tell us what not to watch. Again that may change soon but the American right doesn’t possess the kneejerk compulsion to regularly pressure companies to avoid a network, a website, or a television program.
NBC is in trouble because it already purchased the US rights to every Olympics through 2032. Because leftism is a quasi-religion don’t look for the IOC to reinstate its protest ban for its athletes any time soon.
And yes, the Olympic movement is dying. Only two cities bid for the 2024 summer games, Paris and Los Angeles. The French capital was the winner and LA was immediately awarded the 2028 games. There was no other bidder. And for the 2032 Summer Olympics, the “winner” was Brisbane, Australia, the only bidder.
For the 2022 and 2026 winter games there were only two bidders each.
Of course that’s because organizing the quadrennial Olympics are big money losers for host cities. Los Angeles managed to turn a profit with its last summer games–but that was in 1984. The 2004 Summer Olympics in Athens, the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, and the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro were particularly ghastly financial debacles. Allegations of corruption in the bidding process over the years makes one wonder how stupid supposedly smart people can be.
Athens is a city of many notable ruins–and now Greece’s largest city can add numerous sites from the ’04 games for tourists to marvel at.
As the expression goes, when you get woke you go broke.
But the Olympics were already arguably broke.
Next year Beijing hosts the Winter Olympics. I can think of a bunch of reasons not to watch. China is a communist dictatorship, it has a long history of doping among its athletes, there are over two-hundred concentration camps that incarcerate Uighurs in China, and what else? Oh yeah, there’s a good chance that the COVID-19 virus escaped from the Wuhan laboratory, which destroyed the international economy and killed millions.
Woke protests will seal the deal for me and many more in a few months when the Olympic flame is lit in Beijing.
Corporate CEOs need to listen to the millions of quiet conservative protesters like myself and not the dozen or so left-wing screamers who show up at their board meetings. There are more of us than them.
Oh and if you’re wondering who this guy is and if you should help pay my writers and our bandwidth costs, I’m the guy who is a room full of hostile press during press conferences actually asked Donald Trump neutral or friendly questions.
