Posts Tagged ‘democratic panic’

My predictions on the Stewart Rally:

Posted: October 30, 2010 by datechguy in culture, internet/free speech, media, opinion/news, special events
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Attendance:

I predict a rally attended by maybe 50k maybe slightly more a ceiling of about 75k pretty close to the Freedomworks rally but nowhere near Beck’s. Stewart is a legitimate star as is Colbert, the idea of what their fans consider and “open air show” and what the establishment left consider their best chance to convince their base that they have a chance will help bump the numbers up porta potty issue or no.

The Draw

The draw will come in three flavors. The primary flavor that decided to go right at the start will be college age Comedy Central fans. They are coming for fun, and if Arianna Huffington and Oprah want to pay their way so much the better. Their purpose is not primarily political (although some might have strong political beliefs) they are there for a good time, some partying and the hope of getting laid. (yeah that’s blunt but true)

The secondary flavor will be the Democratic political class/Unions. There are the hardcore dems who hope to use this rally in the way that OneNation was supposed to be used, to convince the democratic base that they have momentum. They are aware that the MSM are going to do their best to advance this narrative so Union leaders and Various activists will compel their membership to go. I suspect they will be dwarfed by the first flavor and will find the Stewart fans a whole lot less enthusiastic for what they are selling.

The final flavor will be the true believes like the lady I met in Newton two weeks ago they believe in Obama, Obamacare, global warming, cap and trade, etc. This includes a lot of the socialist groups that attended one nation in the hopes of getting joiners contributes. They will be the smallest group and their reaction will be based on how they look at it. Publicly they will talk numbers and be “inspired”, privately they will notice that the non-activists have very little interest in their causes. Watch their body language when they get home, it will speak volumes.

The Show

This I have absolutely no idea about, don’t know what Stewart is planning, how he is planning it, how much will be comedy and how he intends to do it. Since his primary shtick is to play off of others I don’t know how he does that. Will he show parts of the Beck rally and comment? Will he try to parody bits and pieces of it? Will Colbert do a fake Beck while Stewart laughs at him? I’m presuming that he has good writers but there is a difference between writing for a live show with an audience that he can’t predict vs a studio audience. I’m presuming Stewart’s team is likely to and has been collaborating as much as possible with the democratic left to whatever degree they can without risking their brand. I also trust Stewart’s team will make sure that there is not trash left everywhere.

The Media

The media is in the worst of all positions. They support this march and the goals of all three groups. They will be portraying the march in the most favorable light possible, but people from the right will be there with cameras and phones tweeting so they are in a box. If the attendance numbers are VERY low then they will be very embarrassed since the story will be of an epic fail. If the air photo is smaller than Beck’s by degrees as I suspect they will be it will be used against the media as it portrays it as a win. If there is drunkenness and public nastiness then it is going to be shown by conservatives but ignored by the media. If the crowd gets too rowdy and/or destructive then the story and the narrative goes very astray. I don’t know if CSPAN will cover the rally, if they do then watch out. Bottom line, the media has a narrative they have already written and are hoping for, everything will depend on how far from that narrative that the actual event goes.

The End Result
Bill Press is exactly right in on respect, activists here are wasted instead of being in the field. A lot of the young people there frankly are not likely to be getting OTHERS out to vote and I suspect the greatest quantities are already coming from the bluest of areas. This is not going to create any actual votes but it might allow the media to try to push a narrative of democratic momentum in the last 48 hours.

In the end The Sunday and Monday shows will be all over this, if it is a success they will trumpet it, if it mediocre they will pretend it is a success, if it is a failure and/or an embarrassment then they will declare it simply a comedy show and nothing else. The problem for the media however is they no longer have the monopoly on the message and the alternative message will be getting out in real-time via twitter and the blogs.

What started as a show/publicity stunt has basically become a high stakes risk for Stewart and Comedy Central. If they make democrats look bad he will find there is plenty of room under the Obama/Democratic bus. If he pulls it off then he will have even more power then the left has already ceded him. God help him if it is boring.

I will know if I’m right within 48 hours, so will you.

BTW how telling is it that there is not a single Memeorandum thread on this subject at this time 7:48 a.m. Could it be that the media has already decided it will not pan out and is starting to downplay it?

Update: One thing I neglected to mention. Politics aside Stewart’s primary goals for the rally are tied up with fans of the show and the audience there. The lefts & the media’s goals (I know redundant) are tied up with the viewing public not there.

Update 2: My God that was boring. He did however draw more folks then I thought but not nearly as many as Beck.

Update 3: Pajamas Media has some more and wider shot photos and better methodology (including the ridiculous CBS stuff) Still not as much Beck but still pretty impressive. This quote is vital:

Big name acts, extensive crowd control, rules against video or audio taping even with your cell phone, boring political speeches … this wasn’t a rally, this was a U2 concert!

And that tells us the real story: they held a rock/comedy concert, with pro acts including two of the hottest TV comedians around, and professional production, with free admission and with Arianna Huffington paying for bus rides — and no matter what you think a “dense” crowd is, it was still only about six-tenths of Beck’s open-air church service.

Actually I thought the acts were so so (I thought the dueling trains stuff was very clever) but I think the real question that I still don’t have a good answer on is the composition. I’ll keep digging

More of the same in Va-9 in more way than one

Posted: October 29, 2010 by datechguy in congress, elections, personal
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Stacy McCain is on the road again planning to hit Va, Tenn and Ga races in the final weekend to see what is going on.

In Va-9 where Morgan Griffith is the GOP standard-bearer the news from Stacy’s latest for the American Spectator sounds very familiar in more ways than one:

First democrats running from their record, and attacking instead? Check.

The problem with that strategy, it seems, is that Republican ideas of free enterprise and less government aren’t nearly as “discredited” as Democrats had hoped. And so the Democrats adopted two basic tactics: Accuse Republicans of favoring heinous policies (like “shipping jobs overseas”) and unload opposition-research files that highlight negative personal information about GOP challengers.

Use faux “3rd party” candidates to drain votes? Check.

Here in Virginia’s 9th District, businessman Jeremiah Heaton is on the ballot as an independent candidate. As Virginia conservative blogger Jerry Furhman notes, Heaton doesn’t seem to be running against the incumbent Boucher, but instead “has chosen to devote his every energy to attacking the Republican in this race.”

And finally panic:

With four days left until Election Day, the Griffith campaign is gearing up a series of get-out-the-vote rallies across the district. Griffith is running hard. But it looks like Boucher is running scared.

This sounds an awful lot like the last road trip.

Expect democrats nationwide to rinse and repeat for the rest of the election season to try to stop the big red wave.

And Democratic tactics continue to be “interesting”

Posted: October 27, 2010 by datechguy in elections, politics
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Well it’s been 48 hours since that last post I’m sure it’s was just a blip on the scene of the national election:

Thirty-four more people will be charged with voter fraud in Hennepin County in the 2008 election, County Attorney Mike Freeman announced Tuesday, bringing the total cases of alleged abuse to 47 for that election year.

Freeman’s office announced the decision a week after the county sheriff announced voting-related charges against seven people, most of whom are accused of registering to vote while ineligible

Minnesota, wasn’t that where after court cases and recount after recount democrats managed to find enough votes to elect Al Franken?

And anyway this is an old case just as this one is and anyway just because one teachers group knew about a stolen election doesn’t mean they are still stealing them does it?

There also seem to be some “interesting” people working on it:

its voter drive is being run by Amy Busefink, an ACORN employee under indictment in Nevada for violating election laws. It might be understandable for an employer not to fire an employee until she is actually convicted of a crime, but this is ridiculous. Busefink should not be running a voter drive.

Busefink and another ACORN employee, Christopher Edwards, were charged with by the state of Nevada with “26 felony counts of voter fraud and 13 of providing unlawful extra compensation to those registering voters.” Edwards pleaded guilty and the trial of Busefink and ACORN is set to begin November 26.

Just because they were doing something shady in the past, doesn’t mean shady things are being done now does it?

Why would a campaign chair and a state-dem committee volunteer take out a Post-Office box to collect completed absentee ballots? Wouldn’t it be cleaner to distribute them however the dems wanted to, and then to have them mailed directly to the elections folks? One less set of fingerprints to suggest chicanery.

Why would a woman on the dem mailing list, who tossed every letter telling her about getting an absentee ballot from these folks, subsequently learn that an absentee ballot was issued in her name?

Pennsylvania eh quite a coincidence all this isn’t it and of course there is the background video on the stomping stuff that the left pretends doesn’t exist.

And in California some longtime lawmakers seem rather ignorant of the law:

Make sure to read the letter, which promises students “extra credit” and credit for fulfilling “class volunteer hours” — and recommends that government and social studies teachers share this video with their students:

the letter is here and perhaps in pre-internet days it would escape notice, but now there are groups watching for fraud.

But will all of it stop the Big Red Wave? ?Well in some states maybe, but I suspect there are certain districts that have fallen so far under the radar that the left may not realize they need stealing.

I’ve been telling anyone who would listen that people simply don’t understand how but this is going to be, I still get people dismissing me, saying I don’t have hard numbers just the anecdotal evidence and simple logic (such as the fact that a guy actually up 11 points doesn’t do a 180 on taxes).

Does this mean that Delaware is going red and that Calif and NY gov races are still in play. I’d bet against NY myself, but it means that it is going to take a whole lot more than a last-minute frat party to save this election for democrats.

Update: And more

Update 2: Red State’s suggestion: Americans start your cameras!

Voices of the Candidates Jim Henderson (i) for sec of state

Posted: October 26, 2010 by datechguy in elections, politics
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I talked to Jim Henderson candidate independent candidate for Sec of state on Saturday

There are a lot of 3rd party candidates all over the place and it looks like they might be getting some unexpected help. But actually it’s the oldest tactic in the book, but will it stop the big red wave?

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