UPDATE: This twitter exchange has to go to the top
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I don’t think they’ve gotten over the shock of an American leader actually fighting back.
Oh and let’s also quote the Elder of Ziyon who knows the region better than me:
First of all, the so-called experts have been wrong every single time they predicted a major response from things Trump decided to do. The “experts” simply aren’t.
My guess is that Iran will instruct Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad to shoot rockets into Israel, even though there is no evidence that Israel had anything to do with this (excellent intel, by the way.) This is a face-saving routine and Iran still clings to the idea that escalating things with Israel will get the Muslim world on their side. That isn’t true anymore, but this might be Iran’s thinking. (Israel closed the ski resort in Mount Hermon anticipating this very scenario.)
Not only Soleimani was killed – also Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy commander of Iran-backed militias Popular Mobilization Forces, and reportedly Naeem Qasm, Hezbollah’s #2 in Lebanon. You have to think that the remaining leaders of Iranian forces and proxy forces are very frightened of being killed themselves. If they escalate, that is a death sentence. I don’t think they are that brave…I cannot see the Revolutionary Guards’ morale remaining high with the loss of their powerful leader and their countrymen, probably, celebrating.
I do expect a response – Iran is still an honor/shame society and some action, now that the US admitted its role, is deemed necessary. But I think it will be a limited response. Perhaps cyberattacks, perhaps rockets to Israel as I mentioned, perhaps some directed attacks at US troops in Iraq or a 1983 Beirut-style attack against US military installations in Europe.
Today, lots of very dangerous people are very scared. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah is going deeper underground than he already was. Maybe even Kim Jong-Un.
The US of World War 2 is back and God have mercy on our enemies because apparently Donald Trump won’t
Twitter is ablaze with activity with President Trump taking out Soleimani & friends yesterday. Here are several things that come to mind at once:
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You might think that you’d have the Mullah’s on the air issuing threats and I’m sure they will do so, as soon as they can relocate to safe secure bunkers out of the reach of drones.
The Iranian leadership has been given notice that from this point on , if there is an attack on a US embassy, none of them are safe.
It took almost no time for the usual suspects to get organized. Max Blumenthal & company announced their protests at once on twitter, I replied with a question
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The left has never seen a killer of US troops that they didn’t like.
In one respect the confusion this has created in Iran is understandable, for decades we have allowed them to kill Americans and strike at our interests with impunity even when we had armies to the east west and south of them.
The concept that the US might actually decide to strike back when attacked is the one thing that they never in their lives expected.
Of course up until the Carter years the idea that one could attack a US embassy with impunity would have been laughed at and as recent as 1970 such retaliation by a US president against a terrorist would not have caused Americans to bat an eyelash.
Of course that was before the left started to get control in the schools
The real problem for Iran is the unrest that is currently going on in their country. The leaders needs to be visable and proactive to keep it from boiling over into a successful revolution but at the same time if they are visible any attempt to kill Americans by Iran will mean a drone will be on them in a moment.
This is likely the best chance we will have to end almost a half century of Iranian terror. That’s the upside. Unfortunately there is no way to know what will replace it, that’s the downside.
The biggest question mark will be our NATO allies currently holding huge populations of pro-terrorist arabs. I suspect most of Europe will do all they can to not choose sides because they are not prepared to deal with the blowback. However if any European nation was looking for an excuse to finally take action to secure their identities, this will be the time. I expect strong support from Poland, Hungary and former Eastern block states. I expect silence or condemnation from Germany & France and the Pope, England is the wild card here.
Politically this is a bad situation for all non-squad members of the left and media. This guy was responsible for the death of thousands of Americans and Iraqis and for terror all over the world so they aren’t likely to condemn his death too loudly if at all, on the other hand they want to make sure that any consequences for this action for ill fall on Trump.
Expect them to start playing the “wag the dog” card pretending that it’s all about impeachment rather than attacks on our embassy.
To some this will be their best chance to energize their base and to defeat Trump. Ironically if the Mullah’s and their allies want to return the US to our former state of impotence without risking their regimes their best shot will be to put all their efforts into helping the Democrats rather than retaliatory strikes. The question is, given their “face” culture do they dare do so?
In the end I have no idea what is going to happen and neither does anyone else, but if I had to bet money on one event over the next 11 months that will come of it I’d bet on a serious Iranian sponsored attempt to assassinate President Trump, most likely via a suicide mission I hope the White House and secret service are prepared for this.
Update 2: Well this didn’t take long, this
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and this
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shows how lucky we were not to have twitter in December of 1941.
Meanwhile here are some assessment from the same world:
Stacy McCain:
I’m hesitant to predict what comes next. Thursday night, while I was trying to watch the Gator Bowl, “World War 3” was trending on Twitter, and yes, the worst-case scenario is Armageddon. We can’t pretend that the risk of all-out war is non-existent. However, the question is not Iran’s intent — they hate America and want us all dead — but rather Iran’s capacity to turn their intentions into action. We shall see.
Tom Rogan Washington Examiner:
This will also cause short-term strife for U.S. political interests in Iraq. Soleimani and Muhandis represented a powerful bloc of Iranian-aligned interests. But a bloc that was under growing pressure. They’ll now seek to unify erstwhile competitors such as Muqtada al Sadr into punishing America for what has occurred.
Ultimately, however, the U.S. holds the cards here.
If it is willing to tolerate some U.S. casualties, the Trump administration can effectively out-escalate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime and force it into backing down. But while lives have likely been saved by Soleimani’s departure, the near-term future won’t be pretty.
Taking out the trash rarely is.
Paula Boylard PJ Media
This could get ugly very quickly. In fact, the State Department is already warning Americans to stay away from the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and urging U.S. citizens to leave the country immediately. Americans at home and abroad may very well be at increased risk of a terrorist attack in the coming days and months (and years!). Let’s hope and pray Trump and the Pentagon have a plan to deal with the aftershocks from Suleimani’s death.
Update 3: POTUS
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I put before you life and death, choose wisely.
Glenn Reynolds hit the nail on the head here:
lurking behind all of this is a new reality that the Iranians may not have fully absorbed: Thanks to fracking, the United States doesn’t have to keep the straits of Hormuz open anymore. We only have to be able to keep them closed.
Bingo!
Update: Key words from the Iranian statement:
Khamenei said Iran will honor Soleimani with three days of mourning and announced that the late general’s deputy, Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, will replace him as Quds Force commander. The terrorist cell’s objectives “will be unchanged from the time of his predecessor,” Khamenei said in a statement reported by Reuters.
In other words the Iranians policy will now be to try to kill Americans, as opposed to their previous policy of trying to kill Americans.
I’m shocked SHOCKED!
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