Posts Tagged ‘doug hoffman’

More sauce for the conservative goose…

Posted: October 26, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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…as the latest gallup poll (via memorandum) shows that those tea-party conservatives are onto something.

Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.

Even more important are the trends:

The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter.

So we aren’t dealing with just a single poll we are dealing with a bunch of em.

Lets put it another way. Assuming that conservatives won’t persuade liberals or vice versa conservatives only need to persuade just over one out of every 4 moderates to get to 51% they need to persuade slightly over 1 out of every 4 moderates.

And lets look at the other side of the coin, liberals need to persuade better than 3 out of every 4 moderates to vote with them in order to get 51%.

And even if moderates are turned off by a conservative candidate liberals STILL need to persuade 1 out of every two moderates to support them in order to get to 51%!

One of the great victories of liberalism and the MSM over time has been their ability to persuade Republicans that they desperately need moderates when in fact it is democrats who need them. Sheer math tells us that it is much more productive to solidify one’s base.

This is the Lesson of NY-23. If they don’t learn it then Republicans will continue to lose and deservedly so. As the Jammie Wearing fool says:

if only the Republican Party would wake up and start supporting conservative candidates instead of these weak-kneed RINOs. Much of the promising news from this polls shows a trend of independents moving to the right, which does not bode well for the Democrats as we enter the 2010 election cycle.

Meanwhile the NRCC continues to back Dede, when asked about it the quote of the day is:

Asked why so many prominent Republicans had thrown their support to Hoffman, the official responded, “We’re dealing with data, not hopes and dreams.”

You want data, there’s your data!

Vote Hoffman

Update: If the republicans aren’t careful they will be playing Captain John Earle to the tea party’s Lt. Kaminsky.

Why this is the best time for the NRCC/Conservative/Tea Party Fight

Posted: October 26, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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Hyperbole not withstanding the republicans should thank their lucky stars for Doug Hoffman and the NY-23 race.

There are a lot of people wringing their hands over this race, Newt is still defending his move.

Here is why this fight is a lot better news than anyone seems to realize:

1. This confrontation was going to come sooner or later, the sooner it comes the faster it can be resolved.

2. If the confrontation is going to come a special election is the time to have it since only a single seat is up for grabs rather than the chance to win congress.

3. The particular seat is frankly of no consequence. If “conservatives” or “republicans” fail to win it will not have any significant effect on either legislation in general or the makeup of the House in particular.

4. If Dede Scozzafava wins then republicans have 8 months to assuage the conservative Tea Party republicans anger and to give her a chance to demonstrate her votes and value. She can “prove” their argument.

5. If Doug Hoffman wins it shows the power of the conservative movement and strengthens Conservatives in general and although they don’t understand it the Republican party in particular and energizes tea party people all over the country that can make a huge impact in 2010 and 2012.

6. Finally if Owens wins it demonstrates how both the Tea Party people and the Republican party need each other in order to win. The some kind of accommodation between the sides to keep democrats from retaining the house in 2010 or the presidency in 2012.

Elections matter 2010 matters, 2012 REALLY matters. The people are heading our way and we can’t afford killer divisions during those elections.

That’s the grand paradox, this election matters most because of how little it actually matters. It gives us the chance to have the fight that we need to resolve with the least possible cost.

The question is will the NRCC be smart enough to play their cards right.

They still aren’t mentioning the Palin thing about Morning Joe…

Posted: October 26, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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…now logically you would think that either Politico would say something in the 6 a.m. hour because of the republican “divide” or a guest would bring it up to say how the party is having issues.

Nope still not a word. Why not?

If all of the “pundits” are right about it hurting republicans SOMEONE would mention it particularly on MSNBC, but nope.

Of course any publicity would highlight the need for the party to go in the Palin direction or would give Hoffman publicity, however aren’t the same media insisting that he can’t win?

This continues to support my thesis concerning this race, that even though some think Palin might hurt Hoffman the national media doesn’t believe it.

the Hoffman campaign is looking for foot soldiers, cluebat for all, moderates aren’t excited enough about anything for stuff like that. It’s the Tea Party people that make a difference. Hey NRCC will you be wanting excited people voting for you in 2010 or no?

Vote Hoffman.

Update: I’m thinking it’s the Acorn connection that is helping to keep them away.

Update 2: If you still don’t believe me consider this: For the last 7 min they talked NY politics on Morning Joe. They talked about the governors race, they talked about the senate race, they brought up the mayors race. The only race they didn’t mention is the one that is actually going on; NY-23. There is no way this is a coincidence!

Do you hear the crickets on the networks…

Posted: October 24, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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…concerning the Palin endorsement of Doug Hoffman?

Granted I hit the sack around 10 last night and I did watch Monk instead of news last night (It was very funny).

I’ve seen no TV coverage particularly among the non-fox people. Morning Joe didn’t even find it worthy of mention.

However the Washington post does have this story which on the heels of their endorsement and then scoffing of Deeds is ironic:

And if Hoffman loses? If Republican Dede Scozzafava beats him and Democrat Bill Owens, it will humiliate Palin — who was she to presume that her endorsement would matter in New York? More than anything, though, Palin’s endorsement probably makes an Owens victory more likely. That would not just be a humiliation for Palin. It would be a notable loss for her party as it is trying to shake off years of electoral debacle. Of course, it’s possible that Palin isn’t actually planning to run in 2012, leaving her free to ignore such strategic concerns and endorse as she pleases. If only.

So the media strategy seems to be downplay or ignore Palin’s involvement in the Ny-23 race at a time when it could actually help Hoffman win, but lay the groundwork to blame her for a Democratic win.

I predict that if Hoffman loses the National media will suddenly notice Palin’s involvement and trumpet it as ineffective. This is the talking point that is being prepared.

Vote Hoffman

Update: Big Lizards gets it

Heh. I always love it when liberal Democrats give Republicans and conservatives helpful advice on getting our mojo back. (For further amusement, the blog Stromboli, or whatever his name is, writes for is titled “PostPartisan”!)

I suspect that if Palin draws the ire of liberals by endorsing Hoffman, she’s on the right track. In any event, she is already alienated from the moderate-liberal, neocon, GOP-establishment leadership. But this was also true of Ronald Reagan (cf. Don Regan, George Schultz, et al): The Realists (the establishmentarians of the 1980s) hated Reagan, and some made it clear that they would rather see Carter or Mondale win than Reagan.

To answer his point about the realists, realists will never go with a Palin or a Reagan, because that means instead of just enjoying the largess of office they have to assume the responsiblities of it. Much better to collect the money and go to parties.

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