Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

By Christopher Harper

Winning Pennsylvania in the 2024 election may be extremely difficult for any Republican candidate.

The headlines of this November election focused on the losses by two Trump-backed candidates in the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races.

But the Republican losses go much deeper than that.

In the useless arena of conventional wisdom and polls, the so-called experts predicted that the GOP would win 10 of 16 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, with one seat a tossup. The actual outcome pushed the House delegation to the Democrats, with a 9-8 margin.

But the big story buried in the mass of election analytical outkill was the potential loss of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives to the Democrats, who picked up 12 seats from the last election and haven’t held control of the legislative body since 2010.

Because of a death and a few governmental changes, the House hasn’t officially changed hands, although it’s likely to do so when the dust settles.

There’s mostly bad news when you dig into the voters themselves. The Black and Latino communities weren’t particularly interested in the nonpresidential election, with Philadelphia voters staying away from the polls in hordes.

A Philadelphia Inquirer analysis found the following:

–Philly’s vote count dropped 33% from 2020, more than any other county and the statewide average of 22%.

–It’s not just a 2020 comparison: This year saw a stark divergence between Philly turnout and the rest of the state compared to every federal election since at least 2000.

–Allegheny County, home to Pittsburgh, has about 133,000 fewer voters than Philly — but cast about 67,000 more ballots this election.

–Philadelphia’s share of the state’s total Democratic vote has dropped from 20% in 2016 to 15% this year.

These results demonstrate that Philadelphia may have less clout than Pittsburgh in the foreseeable future.

More important for Republicans, however, is that many traditional Democrats didn’t participate in the 2022 election, and the Dems still won big.

Moreover, the expected Latino surge for the GOP didn’t happen in Pennsylvania, as traditional Hispanic locales saw a drop in voting turnout. The steepest dives were in heavily Latino cities such as Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, Reading, and Allentown, which all saw turnout drop even more than Philadelphia.

Some community leaders said the turnout in Latino communities shows a failure of candidates and both parties to connect with long-neglected voters.

“There’s lots of things to say about how ignored Latinos feel by the electoral system,” said Erika Almirón, a senior organizer with Mijente, a national Latino social justice group that works in Philadelphia. “And it manifests by not wanting to participate, and so if we want those numbers to improve, candidates have to knock on doors, we need resources.”

Simply put, the GOP has two years to turn it around in Pennsylvania.

By Christopher Harper

Today’s GOP primary here in Pennsylvania, particularly in the U.S. Senate race, underlines the unpredictability of the state’s Republican Party.

Seven candidates are vying for the ability to replace Pat Toomey, a significant disappointment for many Republicans.

David McCormick, a former hedge-fund executive, has millions of dollars to spend, but his close ties to China make him unpalatable even though he has been at or near the top of the polls. Moreover, his connections are mainly to New Jersey rather than Pennsylvania.

Mehmet Oz, a surgeon and a television talk show host, has the support of President Trump. But Oz’s past statements in support of abortion and other liberal issues have offended many conservatives in the state.

As a result, Kathy Barnette, a former soldier and Fox News analyst, has gained traction in recent weeks.

This trio stands atop the polls in what has become one of the most expensive and dirtiest campaigns in Pennsylvania’s history.

Barnette has been the recent target of such attacks, including her tweets about Islam and gays.

“My phone is blowing up with people who never call who are asking who they should vote for,” said Doug McLinko, a Bradford County commissioner and local Republican Party official in northern Pennsylvania.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, McLinko said he has rarely seen as much confusion and indecision among conservatives. “Spending all this money to attack each other isn’t helpful because it has confused the voters,” he said. “I’ve never seen such a mess.”

If successful, Barnette would be the first Black woman elected to the U.S. Senate as a Republican. During the campaign, she has questioned the commitment of her better-funded rivals on abortion and other conservative causes.

 “I am the byproduct of a rape,” she said in one debate, as she criticized Oz for past support of abortion. “My mother was 11 years old when I was conceived. My father was 21. I was not just a lump of cells.”

Barnette said she was raised on a pig farm in Alabama that lacked running water.

In her book, Nothing to Lose, Everything to Gain: Being Black and Conservative in America, Barnette argues that liberal policies have failed the Black community. 

I think Republicans need someone different to set the party apart from the Democrats. A Black woman from a hardscrabble background might make a powerful candidate against the Democrats, who depend heavily on the Black communities in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. 

Club for Growth Action, a conservative super PAC, has endorsed Barnette and placed an order for $2 million in advertising in support of her. Barnette, who lost a bid to join U.S. House of Representatives in 2020, also won the backing of the Susan B. Anthony List, a pro-life group.

Conventional wisdom argues that a Black female Republican will have difficulty beating the likely Democrat John Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor. But Fetterman suffered a stroke over the weekend and may not be as formidable as many experts think. 

I don’t think conventional wisdom and experts work much anymore. As a result, I plan to vote for Barnette. I think she might be just the right candidate to keep the seat in Republican hands.