I was in the middle of writing a birthday post for my late father when I got a call from a friend in PA who told me to turn on the TV and that Scozzafava had pulled out of the race in NY-23.
This doesn’t guarantee victory for Hoffman (that’s WHY you have the election) but it means the following.
Big Winners:
Sarah Palin: She was the republican who was willing to put herself on the line with the race was “over”
Robert Stacy McCain: He was the blogger/Reporter who pushed this story and took the time to visit the district twice. That meant he was on hand for BOTH the Palin endorsement and the Scozzafava pull out.
Rush Limbaugh: He pushed and pushed this race and hit republicans for dissing conservatives.
The Tea Party Movement: They got behind Hoffman and have proved their power. Lets see the MSM spin that one.
Northeastern Conservatives: All it takes is one win to give others the courage to try.
Dump Dede blog: Need I say why?
BIG Losers:
Newt Gingrich: He stuck his neck out for the GOP rather than conservatives and got it chopped off. Say goodbye to 2012 but as long as he opposes conservatives his place on the MSM rotation gravy train is assured forever.
GOP Establishment: They attached the conservative and gave us a RINO and end up with a zero.
NRCC: Good luck raising money from conservatives now. I suspect the funds will go directly to the candidates.
Democrats: They are in a no win situation. They don’t get the cover that a Scozzafava win would have allowed them (bi-partisan votes, a House version of Olympia Snowe) and even if Owens wins they get nothing they didn’t already have, an overwhelming house majority and a new blue dog.
The MSM: They have to deal with a Palin win and or a Hoffman win. Their RINO’s who have been proclaiming that the GOP has to tack left shows its weakness. They will play the GOP civil war card but not no effect.
RINOS: They lose their argument
Tim Pawlenty: Sloppy seconds
And to Charles Johnson he gets a Nelson award:
Vote Hoffman!
Update: CNN is reporting the breaking news that a poll says Palin is not electable? Doesn’t mention NY-23 news today. Do you want to know why they are in 4th? Memorandum is on it however. CNN’s breaking news still isn’t covering it.
Update 2: Second big winner Bill Quick, two instalances on one post!
Update 3: Michelle Malkin knows who to thank. Meanwhile according to Sister Toldjah CNN discovered the story while I went down the street for breakfast and she breaks some news:
Chair Pete Sessions is now set to endorse Hoffman. Politico’s Jonathan Martin reported via Twitter that Newt Gingrich, a staunch defender of Scozzafava against conservatives who accurately described her as a liberal in sheep’s clothing, is now endorsing Hoffman and urging others to vote for him on Tuesday.
A tad late isn’t it? Meanwhile Marc Ambinder makes a good point:
Where do the rest of her votes go? CW says that most go to Hoffman, but I’m with Jonathan Martin: I think half go to Democrat Bill Owens or they stay home.
Ed Morrissey does show the race looks good for the white hats:
According to the poll, Hoffman had attracted 50% of the Republican vote, while Owens had 2/3rds of the Democrats. Hoffman leads Owens among independents, 40%-35%, and the remaining 15% supporting Scozzafava will almost certainly break more towards Hoffman than Owens. Owens will likely get more of Scozzafava’s Democratic supporters, but she only had 11%, while 14% have already gone to Hoffman. Hoffman and Owens had a near-even split of the opposition in Scozzafava’s regional stronghold of Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence counties, but I’d be surprised if Hoffman didn’t pick up more in those areas of disaffected Scozzafava voters, too.
The race isn’t over until the people actually vote. Various bloggers point out that it’s all down to the voters now. Meanwhile the democrats make a tactical mistake:
Politico reports that the Biden rally will be Monday in Watertown:
The visit by Biden underlines how badly national Democrats want to snatch this seat, Republican-held since before the Civil War, from the GOP. But it also reflects Democrats’ 11th-hour efforts to avoid a clean sweep Tuesday of the three mostly closely-watched races.
By deploying Biden it makes any defeat an administration defeat. This is a lot of risk for little reward, this suggests fear of giving Sarah Palin any kind of victory.
Update 4: Robert George gets it:
Outside observers who want to dismiss Palin do so at their peril. But, there appears to be a reason that her basketball-playing nickname was “Barracuda.” Recall she was the one who coined (or at least made viral) the phrase “death panel” during the health care fight during the summer — forcing Democrats and the White House onto the defensive. Whether Palin is doing all this for PR purposes (her book comes out in three weeks) or being reckless in her political rhetoric, the fact is she is having an impact on the broader debate — and continuing to resonate with her party’s base.
Mitt Romney? Not so much. His voice hasn’t been heard during the battle over health care. And then, Thursday he gave the vaguest statement on the race:
“I have chosen not to endorse the Republican candidate in New York’s 23rd District,” Romney told reporters while campaigning in Virginia for Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell. “That should speak a certain amount of volume. I can’t endorse our candidate in that race.”
Yeah, Mitt, that does speak “a certain amount of volume.” It says that you’re willing to campaign for a gubernatorial candidate who has had the Virginia race in the bag for months — but not make a controversial, yet, dynamic decision in a race that would have significant ripples across the country. Palin (and Tim Pawlenty quickly following the former Alaska governor) recognized where the base’s train was going and quickly got on board. Romney missed the train — and missed the opportunity to take a significant role in a tough internal ideological debate that his party is undergoing. Even if Romney endorsed Scozzafava (as former Speaker Newt Gingrich did), at least he would have made a principled decision and could have articulated his reasons for it.
Instead, he looks completely wishy-washy.
Edisto Joe does too:
Anyone who doubts Sarah Palin as an up and coming major player on the political scene better find a doctor for a reality check.
Conservatives for Palin should be talking victory laps, Intrade sure looks good too. Meanwhile Riehl World view spares some sympathy for Dede:
I’ve no ill will toward her. She had a long, productive career as an elected official. I won’t knock her for that, even if I found some of her thinking to be wrong. Hopefully she can carry on in her career at the local level for now. I don’t see why not. These must have been incredibly stressful times for her.
She might be a nice lady and good to kittens, she was just the wrong choice for this position. David Frum’s new majority links to the Politico story but hasn’t been heard from in two days on the race. There is news; David Frum has joined CNN.com and CNN is now in last place. Make of that what you will.
Speaking of Frum et/al National review has a bonanza, the biggest piece is a word from Rush Limbaugh:
“Hmmm… I thought the Era of Reagan was over? Who was it that said that? Oh yeah, the smart people on our side who told us the only way we could win was with moderate/liberal candidates like Scozzafava. Hmmm…”
Jim Geraghty sees good signs too:
A guy in the know, who’s helping out with pro-Hoffman efforts up there, tells me, “Of the 20 percent or so who supported Dede, we think 70 percent are registered Republicans. We are focusing on them. Hoffman has run an anti-Washington, stop Nancy Pelosi/Harry Reid campaign, so that’s the message we’re continuing to push.”
He adds, “All the Dede resources from RNC et al got pushed to New Jersey, by the way, they didn’t stay around to help.” (Christie probably needs it more.)
While Hoffman reaches out to Dede:
“I will value a relationship with her, using the knowledge and experience she has to help me in representing this district,” says Hoffman. Working with Scozzafava, he adds, is akin to working with all Republicans to help forward conservative and fiscally-responsible policies. “In the last week, I’ve had many senior Republicans come to my aide and endorse me,” he says. “Over 25 congressional Republicans have helped and endorsed me, plus numerous presidential hopefuls.”
And Rich Santorum tries to extend the metaphor to Jersey.
We are faced with another three-way race for the governorship of New Jersey. The state of New Jersey is in a free fall under the inept leadership of Jon Corzine. Would I ever consider supporting the Independent candidate Chris Daggett there? Perhaps, if I thought, in these final days, the situation there were anything like it was in NY-23. But it is not. If you take a look at the Real Clear Politics poll average, Daggett is at 12 percent while Corzine and Christie are tied at 41 percent. What has been clear in all of the polls is that Corzine can’t break out of the low 40s in support.
Daggett, meanwhile, isn’t a Libertarian or a Socialist. He isn’t carrying the banner for a cause or a party that he has embraced. He is running, I suspect, because he knows that another four years of Corzine would be a continuing train wreck for New Jersey and he thinks he could do a better job than Chris Christie.
Like Scozzafava, Daggett was a liberal Republican in the Tom Kean mold (Daggett worked for Kean) in New Jersey. Unlike Scozzafava, he left the party to join another cause, his own. Like Scozzafava, Daggett is not going to win the election on Tuesday. Scozzafava withdrew because she put what is best for her district and her country above her personal aspirations. Let’s see if Daggett can exhibit the same selflessness.
I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
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