Posts Tagged ‘scozzafava’

How do you like them apples Hoffman in the lead!

Posted: October 26, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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All morning Rush’s guest host (Mark Davis) has been telling us that Hoffman can’t win, it reached the point were it was just annoying to hear him.

Then this poll comes out:

A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

Gee what significant event could have happened in the last few days that could cause this. If you look at the news you wouldn’t know.

Robert Stacy encourages caution:

Of course — grain-of-salt time. The most important thing in these numbers, however, is the indication that the liberal Republican Scozzafava has slipped into third place.

Remember that NY23 has consistently voted 2-to-1 for the conservative Republican Rep. John McHugh. So if GOP voters in the district perceive Scozzafava as a likely loser, you can expect a decisive shift toward Hoffman by Republican voters whose main concern is not to give Nancy Pelosi another Democratic vote.

Michelle mocks Newt more:

The spoiler in this race is ACORN-friendly, Big Labor-embracing, tax-and-spender Dede Scozzafava. There is nothing — nothing — “mooooderate” about he

Dump Dede just repeats the release, as does conservatives 4 Palin, Ed Morrissey puts it under too good to check:

If the reaction of the GOP base to Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Hoffman didn’t get the attention of party leadership, then the results surely will. Many conservatives wondered whether splitting the vote now would be worth it in order to position Hoffman against a weak Democratic re-election effort in 2010. This survey shows that the vote split here may be benefiting Hoffman rather than damaging him.

How do we know these number have meat, particularly the unfavorables for Dede? The DCCC is ATTACKING HOFFMAN.

I wonder how many republicans who were willing to believe the old Kos poll will try to discredit this one? Over to you Newt and NRCC

Vote Hoffman.

More sauce for the conservative goose…

Posted: October 26, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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…as the latest gallup poll (via memorandum) shows that those tea-party conservatives are onto something.

Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.

Even more important are the trends:

The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter.

So we aren’t dealing with just a single poll we are dealing with a bunch of em.

Lets put it another way. Assuming that conservatives won’t persuade liberals or vice versa conservatives only need to persuade just over one out of every 4 moderates to get to 51% they need to persuade slightly over 1 out of every 4 moderates.

And lets look at the other side of the coin, liberals need to persuade better than 3 out of every 4 moderates to vote with them in order to get 51%.

And even if moderates are turned off by a conservative candidate liberals STILL need to persuade 1 out of every two moderates to support them in order to get to 51%!

One of the great victories of liberalism and the MSM over time has been their ability to persuade Republicans that they desperately need moderates when in fact it is democrats who need them. Sheer math tells us that it is much more productive to solidify one’s base.

This is the Lesson of NY-23. If they don’t learn it then Republicans will continue to lose and deservedly so. As the Jammie Wearing fool says:

if only the Republican Party would wake up and start supporting conservative candidates instead of these weak-kneed RINOs. Much of the promising news from this polls shows a trend of independents moving to the right, which does not bode well for the Democrats as we enter the 2010 election cycle.

Meanwhile the NRCC continues to back Dede, when asked about it the quote of the day is:

Asked why so many prominent Republicans had thrown their support to Hoffman, the official responded, “We’re dealing with data, not hopes and dreams.”

You want data, there’s your data!

Vote Hoffman

Update: If the republicans aren’t careful they will be playing Captain John Earle to the tea party’s Lt. Kaminsky.

Why this is the best time for the NRCC/Conservative/Tea Party Fight

Posted: October 26, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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Hyperbole not withstanding the republicans should thank their lucky stars for Doug Hoffman and the NY-23 race.

There are a lot of people wringing their hands over this race, Newt is still defending his move.

Here is why this fight is a lot better news than anyone seems to realize:

1. This confrontation was going to come sooner or later, the sooner it comes the faster it can be resolved.

2. If the confrontation is going to come a special election is the time to have it since only a single seat is up for grabs rather than the chance to win congress.

3. The particular seat is frankly of no consequence. If “conservatives” or “republicans” fail to win it will not have any significant effect on either legislation in general or the makeup of the House in particular.

4. If Dede Scozzafava wins then republicans have 8 months to assuage the conservative Tea Party republicans anger and to give her a chance to demonstrate her votes and value. She can “prove” their argument.

5. If Doug Hoffman wins it shows the power of the conservative movement and strengthens Conservatives in general and although they don’t understand it the Republican party in particular and energizes tea party people all over the country that can make a huge impact in 2010 and 2012.

6. Finally if Owens wins it demonstrates how both the Tea Party people and the Republican party need each other in order to win. The some kind of accommodation between the sides to keep democrats from retaining the house in 2010 or the presidency in 2012.

Elections matter 2010 matters, 2012 REALLY matters. The people are heading our way and we can’t afford killer divisions during those elections.

That’s the grand paradox, this election matters most because of how little it actually matters. It gives us the chance to have the fight that we need to resolve with the least possible cost.

The question is will the NRCC be smart enough to play their cards right.

They still aren’t mentioning the Palin thing about Morning Joe…

Posted: October 26, 2009 by datechguy in opinion/news
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…now logically you would think that either Politico would say something in the 6 a.m. hour because of the republican “divide” or a guest would bring it up to say how the party is having issues.

Nope still not a word. Why not?

If all of the “pundits” are right about it hurting republicans SOMEONE would mention it particularly on MSNBC, but nope.

Of course any publicity would highlight the need for the party to go in the Palin direction or would give Hoffman publicity, however aren’t the same media insisting that he can’t win?

This continues to support my thesis concerning this race, that even though some think Palin might hurt Hoffman the national media doesn’t believe it.

the Hoffman campaign is looking for foot soldiers, cluebat for all, moderates aren’t excited enough about anything for stuff like that. It’s the Tea Party people that make a difference. Hey NRCC will you be wanting excited people voting for you in 2010 or no?

Vote Hoffman.

Update: I’m thinking it’s the Acorn connection that is helping to keep them away.

Update 2: If you still don’t believe me consider this: For the last 7 min they talked NY politics on Morning Joe. They talked about the governors race, they talked about the senate race, they brought up the mayors race. The only race they didn’t mention is the one that is actually going on; NY-23. There is no way this is a coincidence!

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