Posts Tagged ‘Ukraine’

How About we establish a Few “No Loot Zones” & “No shoot zones” in the US before we move to No Fly Zones elsewhere?

Posted: March 7, 2022 by datechguy in war
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Pat Wheeler: Son, l asked you over here because the Sheriff’s a friend of mine. He’s got trouble. He can use a good man.

Colorado Ryan: To go against the Burdettes, Sheriff?

Sheriff Chance: That’s right.

Pat Wheeler: I told him you were one of the best.

Colorado Ryan: I’ll tell you what I’m a lot better at, Mr. Wheeler. That’s minding my own business. No offense, Sheriff.

Sheriff Chance: No offense.

Pat Wheeler: I never expected that.

Sheriff Chance: He showed good sense.

Rio Bravo 1959

There has been a lot of talk about a No Fly Zone in Ukraine enforced by NATO. The president of Ukraine lobbied congress for such a think and the Ukrainians have been doing their best to shame the west into this kind of direct confrontation with Russia.

Now the Ukrainians are in the process of being invaded and that being the case I have no problem with them doing all they can to get allies in the fight, in fact they would not be doing their job if they didn’t, but something occurred to me as the echoing gong of intervention has been going out.

Where are the calls for US Intervention in Chicago and Baltimore?

We have people being shot there on a regular basis and innocent bystanders being killed and wounded including children, yet we don’t have anyone talking about sending forces to control the violence there nor are there outcries for intervention in Chicago or people putting the Chicago or Baltimore city flags or seals on their twitter feed.

War is a messy thing. There is shooting, there is violence. And when civil authority breaks down you can see arson, you can see looting which begs the question.

Where are the calls for US intervention in San Francisco, or Portland or even New York City?

We’ve had wholesale arson, we’ve seen people take over streets and threaten others, we’ve seen looting and theft with impunity, yet the very suggestion that Americans should be sent to a part of America to protect Americans from these things in any of these cities is practically beyond the pale and it seems odd to me that so many Americans are all gung ho about getting involved in Ukraine but don’t seem to give a damn about what is going on here, not just ordinary crime which you might say is a local matter but crime and violence of a type that would have been unthinkable just a decade ago.

Am I saying that what Putin has done isn’t wrong, not at all. Putin should turn his armies around, head back to Russia and stay there.

But we’re not Poland, or Finland or the Baltic states, all of who have a history with Russia and have a legitimate worry about an aggressive Russia in their neighborhood and might decide it’s in their interest to get deeply involved . I submit and suggest it would show a lot of good sense to think long and hard before we go and get ourselves deeply involved in a war in eastern Europe that doesn’t involve a NATO ally that’s we’re committed to defend.

I’m VERY iffy About the Use of Guilt By Association Business to Counter Russia

Posted: March 4, 2022 by datechguy in war
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Let’s stipulate two things at the start of this post:

It is my opinion, even after hearing Lee Stranahan case for it, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is wrong and they should pull out of the country at once.

It is my opinion that the sudden unity (which frankly I find suspicious but that’s a post for another day) in the world in punishing ordinary Russians in general and wealthy Russians in particular, is, short of actual military intervention, the most likely method to succeed in at the very worst bringing Putin to the table and at best causing him to rethink the invasion.

Nevertheless, I don’t like it, I don’t like it one bit for a couple of reasons:

It sets a terrible precedent or rather revives one:

The idea that any group of people can be targeted collectively for actions (real or imagined) that are disliked by either leaders or prominent leaders of such a group is an easy way to get abuses. Three examples instantly come to mind. During the settlement of North America it was not uncommon for settlers who had been raided or various tribes for that matter) , to retaliate with little discrimination against the surrounding Indian Tribes, or other white settlers. This cycle of collective guilt was used to justify all kinds of violence not to mention ignoring various treaties protecting tribal rights. In Germany’s Jews were collectively blamed for the nations defeat in world war 1 and the grief afterwards (what the basis for that claim was still alludes me) but the basis for that claim directly took us to the death camps, in fact even today many Arab nations use collective guilt against Jews for any action by the state of Israel that they dislike or even actions taken decades ago. Look at the Jim Crow south and you’ll see this in play. (In fact CRT is the same thing on steroids’ not just guilt by association for people actions but for people’s actions centuries ago) This type of thing doesn’t end well.

Russia is not as “free” as it pretends

You could make the case that the people of the Confederacy could be held responsible for their acts because their representatives were freely elected and you could make the case that the white population of South Africa could be held responsible for their abuses as they elected the leaders who maintained apartheid but Russia is a different matter:

Russia’s parliamentary elections in less than two weeks’ time are shaping up to be the least free since Vladimir Putin came to power 21 years ago, warn opposition leaders and independent election observers.

The details are not a big surprise to anyone who pays attention:

Nonetheless few Putin opponents doubt United Russia will win the elections handsomely, thanks to ballot-rigging, the silencing of Putin critics, the barring of independent candidates, voter intimidation and cash handouts to voters.

“The thinly veiled bribery of voters, all sorts of manipulations, mobilizing administrative [resources] and persecution of the critics of the regime — these are the election tactics of Putin and his party in 2021,” according to Fyodor Krashennikov, an opposition political commentator.

Krashennikov recently left Russia for Europe, joining an exodus of opposition figures who say they’re being chased out by a crackdown on dissent, which has seen dozens of independent media outlets and civic groups forced to shut after being designated “foreign agents” or extremist organizations in a ramping up of repression up ahead of the elections.

Given that Putin is Ex KGB none of this is a big surprise, but this is why the wave of making not the Russian Nation but making individual Russians pariahs who are not connected to the government, that’s just wrong.

And don’t think the precedent of confiscating of their private propriety will end with them, just as the freezing of donors to the Truckers bank accounts in Canada will be the end of it.

I understand the desire to be seen to do something but there seems to be a virtue signaling race (like banning Russian Cats from cat shows, yes you’re reading that right) to be seen to do so and as I’ve already said, doing something, particularly the wrong thing that creates a bad precedent for the sake of doing or being seen to do something is a lot worse than doing nothing.

Two Miscalculations The Biden Admin on Putin and the Biden Administration and Putin on Zelensky

Posted: March 3, 2022 by datechguy in war
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Lt Columbo: You know for a while there I thought: I’ll never get her. All those little details they just didn’t make it, there was nothing conclusive, and then I thought, It’s gotta be the money.

Mrs. Williams: What money?

Lt. Columbo: The ransom money. When a person engineers a false kidnapping they have to have the money hidden somewhere. Now it cleaned you out to raise the ransom. So I thought I gotta find a way to force her to use the ransom money. [to man bringing suitcase] thank you very much. You know seemed like a nutty idea to everyone, it did to my wife. But I believed in it because Mrs. Williams you have no conscience and that’s your weakness. Did it ever occur to you that there are very few people that would take money to forget about a murder? It’s didn’t did it? I knew it wouldn’t. No conscience, limits your imagination you can’t conceive of anybody being any different then what you are, and you’re greedy. And that’s why, bright as you are, and you’re bright, you believed Margaret could be bought.

Columbo: Ransom for a dead man 1971

If you want to know how we got to the point where we might actually be on the brink of a World War and a dramatic change in how countries choose to defend themselves its origin comes from two miscalculations.

As we’ve mentioned before the Biden administration practically invited the Russians to go into the eastern sections of Ukraine that have been fighting since the 2014 coup that put in the current government, they calculated they would recognize those areas, maybe move in some troops. the Biden Administration would say a few words and then take credit for preventing an invasion of Ukraine proper and it would be business as usual.

It didn’t work out that way.

Putin took one look at the American response and figured these pigeons were ripe for the plucking and decided to go all in. It made sense, a weak America, a Europe completely dependent on Russia for fuel and retaking Ukraine becomes a piece of cake, particularly when he figured that Ukraine would not be able to resist him very long.

That’s where the 2nd miscalculation came in for Both Putin & the Biden Administration.

With Putin moving in the Biden Admin figured the jig was up and the best move would be to get the president Zelensky out. They and the Obama folks had had years of good pickings in the region and they figured they would set him up somewhere comfortable he would keep his mouth shut about the various dealing that had gone on while occasionally putting in a good word for the good folks of the Biden Admin that got him and his out. They saw him as they saw themselves, just another grifter.

That’s where they’re both wrong.

The Ukrainian government is corrupt and Ukrainian companies have been involved in some shady dealings with the US left in general and the Biden family in particular but personal corruption and greed and bravery and love for one’s country are not mutually exclusive. It’s one thing to skim things from the top to enrich yourself, it’s another to leave your country and let it die at the hands of a traditional enemy. This was a shock to the Biden Administration and those running it

You see the Biden family the Biden administration and the folks who have been profiting from Ukraine are a bunch of amoral grifters who only care about themselves. They would never risk their lives in a seemingly hopeless cause when the could go off and live like a king and they could not conceive of the idea that Zelensky would decide to stay and fight. It wasn’t on their radar. Putin how deep the grift in Ukraine was might have figured the same but frankly should have known better.

When Zelensky bravely decided to not only stay but do so publicly in order to inspire his countrymen in their time of need every calculation of the Davos class went out the window and now the west is in pickle.

For the Biden Administration it’s the worst of all possible worlds. He looks weak no matter what happens and every day that Ukraine is the center of the world’s attention is a day that people might start asking uncomfortable questions that even the US media can’t protect him from.

For their media allies it’s a mixed bag, it’s a great story but they need it to end soon, both to protect the image of Biden and to keep people from asking too many questions.

For Europe it’s a defining moment. They don’t want world war three but they also don’t want to reward Russia, furthermore seeing that the US isn’t going to defend them they are going to have to decide to defend themselves and that means the assets of the elites are not immune.

For Russia it’s become a pretty bad situation. Even victory in Ukraine now comes at a high price because you have Germany rearming, Finland suddenly looking to join NATO and the west and the media seemingly united against him.

All of this comes from two miscalculations. What’s next? I’m not sure. If Putin was looking for a bright spot the STOU speech certainly was one, If the west was looking for a bright spot the seemingly mediocre performance of the Russian Army sure looks like one, but I think it’s going to be a couple of months before we really know what the score is over there.

Six Things to Keep in Mind Concerning Ukraine and Russia

Posted: February 28, 2022 by datechguy in war
Tags: , ,

Getting invaded doesn’t confer sainthood:

As noted at the Tablet (via Instapundit) Ukraine is knee deep in corruption of both the Biden and Obama administrations (the latter who put it in power. Being corrupt in financial and other matters does not preclude being brave and patriotic in others so keep this in mind when you react.

A Nation fighting for it’s life isn’t going to prioritize facts over survival

As I noted two days ago both Russia and the Ukraine have a vested interest in spreading a message favorable to their cause. Depriving Russia of that ability in the west or in Europe does not mean Ukraine is not going to do it’s best to spin news. This of course is a perfectly legitimate tactic in a war, particularly when a nation is fighting for it’s life against one of the world great powers but we should be very careful about simply believing everything we hear over the next few days.

The Media has Suddenly not become Honest or credible

A second thing to consider concerning the War in Ukraine is the media. There is no reason to suddenly attribute credibility and/or honesty to US or international media when they have spend decades demonstrating their dishonesty and lack of credibility. American media in particular are going to do their best to protect this administration for any responsibility for it’s failures of diplomacy and helping to create the conditions for this war. That’s been their primary concern for years and I see no reason why a war would change this, in fact I suspect they will do their best to not: “let this crisis go to waste.”

The End of the War will not be the end of it:

As Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire for a century before anyone heard of the Soviet Union the problems there will remain no matter how this ends. There is a large Russian minority in Ukraine and short of them migrating out it is going to remain there. How that minority is treated after the war is over if the Ukrainian government stands or how that minority treats ethnic Ukrainians if the Russians win will be a significant human rights issue that is going to be a real problem when it’s all over. (Side note to a lesser degree this is a common problem in former eastern bloc nations and likely drives Russia’s policy more than we in the west understand).

Both Europe and Russia will look at this differently than folks in the US

There is a famous exchange in the US Senate last century where someone noted to Richard Russell (D-GA) a hawk on defense hat the south was very military minded. Russell replied to the effect that if Sherman had marched through your state you’d be military minded too. This is in play both in Putin’s Moves and in Europe’s sudden willingness to make a unified response. In each of the last two centuries Russia has been invaded by the premiere military power of the day with the intent to conquer it. Meanwhile while there are very few left in Europe who served in World War two there are still plenty who remember living in the rubble of it trying to survive and the memory of being under the Soviet’s thumb during the cold war is very much in the living memory of those in Poland, the Baltic States and the other unwilling client states of the old Soviet Union. Dealing with Russia without taking that history into account would is a grave error with a competent administration, with this load of idiots it could be fatal, likewise Putin failure to take into account the reaction of a Europe suddenly facing a war without strong leadership from the US might actually undo all the subtle moves he has made for decades to emasculate the European West.

In the end it will all come down to will

No amount of writing, opinions, speeches or seeds brought to embassies is going to change the bottom line military facts on the ground and those facts depend on military reality not speeches by pols and Pundits and the two key realities have been pointed out by Stacy McCain who as usual has gotten to the the heart of the matter:

  1. If the Russians can fly in reinforcements rather than having to go in on the ground the entire game changes:

What I eventually concluded was that Russians were still in control at Gostomel or, at least, that the Ukrainian counterattack had not “destroyed” the Russian paratrooper force (as had been claimed), and when I woke up Friday, it was clear that not only had the Russian paratroopers held on, but that they were being reinforced, as helicopters were seen flying in low over the area. The most definitive report I found was from the Wall Street Journal:

Russian forces pouring in from neighboring Belarus through the Chernobyl nuclear disaster exclusion zone reached the outskirts of Kyiv. They took over the Hostomel airfield following an airborne assault on Thursday, and by Friday morning Russian armored forces reached the area. Heavy combat continued through the day, and Ukrainian troops blew up several bridges leading into Kyiv from the northwest.

If this is correct, then a Russian armored column has now reached Gostomel, so it’s no longer just paratroopers holding the airfield, which means that soon the Russians will be flying in all kinds of equipment, and this is less than 20 miles from downtown Kyiv.

2. If Kyiv (or Kiev as I’ve always known it) is encircled then it’s only a matter of time

Ukrainian resistance is still fierce and effective, and the Russians have failed to take Kyiv. On the other hand, according to Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, the city is now “encircled” by Russian forces — i.e., the invaders control all the routes into the city. Kyiv is now besieged, in other words, and such affairs do not usually end well for the defenders. Western talk of sending military aid to Ukraine is thus rather belated, if there is no feasible way to deliver these materials to the Ukrainians now holed up in their capital.

I find it highly unlikely that Polish armor will suddenly appear to relieve the city nor do I think that the moves in place will be enough to change Putin’s mind. It comes down to this. If Putin has encircled Kyiv he can starve out the city which means it falls. That’s not going to stop resistance in fact it could become Afghanistan on steroids meaning that a Russian military victory followed by the installation of a pro-Putin government, while hell for Ukrainians might bleed Russia for years in a way a defeat might not

The real question is who will blink first Putin or the West. Presuming the City doesn’t fall this week that’s what it really comes down to and unlike the West Putin has a built in out but that’s a post for tomorrow.

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