Archive for the ‘Sports’ Category

The Patriots Post Tom Brady Expectations Game

Posted: March 19, 2020 by datechguy in nfl, Sports
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The Tom Brady Era in New England has ended.

Although it was not known at the time the coming of Tom Brady to the New England Patriots was a sports earthquake, much like the coming of Babe Ruth to the Yankees in Baseball or Bill Russell to the Celtics in Basketball or Wayne Gretzky to Edmonton in Hockey.

In all of these cases it was quickly established that the coming of said superstar meant that the franchise in question was now considered the prohibitive favorite to win the championship in their sport.

And with the exception of the Yankees who amazingly thanks to the coming of Lou Gehrig during the Ruth Era and Joe DiMaggio during the Gehrig Era and Mickey Mantle & Yogi Berra during the DiMaggio era in succession kept those high exceptions post Ruth the departure of Brady means a re-evaluation of the expectation for both the Patriots and for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

Let’s start with the New England Patriots.

The New England Patriots began playing in 1960 and played with a quarterback other than Tom Brady starting games from that year though the year 2000. They played a 14 game schedule from 1960-1976 and a 16 game schedule since. The Patriots had a winning record in 22 out of those 41 seasons. Of those 22 winning seasons the teams best pre Brady Years in terms of wins were as follows

  • 1964 10-3-1
  • 1976 11-3
  • 1978 11-5
  • 1985 11-5
  • 1986 11-5
  • 1996 11-5

During that period these were the years that they won their division

1963, 1978, 1986, 1996, 1997

During that period these are the years they made the playoffs

1963, 1976, 1978, 1982, 1985, 1986, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1998

Of those playoff years these are the years they won at least one playoff game

1963, 1985,1996,1997

During that period these were the years they made it to the Superbowl or the AFL Championship game pre-superbowl

1963, 1985, 1996

They never won a championship

So as you can see over 41 years the aNew England / Boston Patriots

  • Had a winning record 55% of the time
  • won 11 or more game (10 in a 14 game season) 14.6% of the time
  • won their division 12% of the time
  • made the playoffs 24% of the time
  • won a playoff game 9.7% of the time
  • went to a championship game 7% of the time winning 0%

Tom Brady took over as the Patriots starting QB during the 2001 season and remained the starting QB through the 2019 season. During that 20 year period these are the season where they did NOT win at least 12 games

  • 2001 11-5 (partial Brady Season)
  • 2002 9-7
  • 2005 10-6
  • 2008 11-5 (Brady injured game 1 out for season)
  • 2009 10-6
  • 2018 11-5

These are the seasons during the Brady years that the Patriots did NOT win their division or make the playoffs

2002, 2008

These are the seasons during the Brady years that the Patriots dd NOT win a playoff game

2002,2008,2009,2010, 2019

These are the seasons during the Brady years that the Patriots did NOT go to the Superbowl

2002, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010,2012,2013, 2015, 2019

So lets sum up during the Tom Brady Years

  • Had a winning record 100% of the time
  • The Patriots won at least 12 games 70% of the time
  • The Patriots won their division & made the playoffs 90% of the time
  • The Patriots won at LEAST one playoff game 70% of the time
  • The Patriots went to the Superbowl 50% of the time
  • The Patriots WON the superbowl 30% of the time (67% of the times they went)

Or to put it another way, the best New England/Boston Patriots seasons in their pre-Brady years would be considered failures during the Brady years and their three appearances in the Superbowl/Championship would all be rated at best disappointments in the Brady era.

Now the Tom Brady Era has officially ended which means that unless Jarrett Stidham or any quarterback that they draft this season turns into the 2nd coming of Lou Gehrig logically our expectations for Patriots should return to a pre-Brady level to wit.

Any year that the New England Patriots post Brady:

  • Have a winning record: should be considered OK
  • Win 11 games: should be considered a success
  • Win their division: should be considered a big success
  • Make the playoffs: should considered a huge success.
  • Win a playoff game: should be considered an spectacular success
  • Go to the Superbowl: should be considered an extraordinary success
  • Win a Superbowl: should be considered a Miracle

Now there are those who consider that a fair amount of Tom Brady’s success in general and the Patriots success in particular should be given to Coach Bill Belichick who some consider the greatest coach in Football history. For those of you who consider this the case let’s make a slight adjustment.

Any year the New England Patriots Under Belichick post Brady

  • Win a Superbowl, it’s an extraordinary success
  • Go to the Superbowl it’s a spectacular success
  • Win a playoff game it’s a Huge success
  • Make the playoffs, it’s a big success
  • Win their division, it’s a success
  • Win at least 11 games, it’s an OK season
  • Win less than 11 games…fire the bum!

These are reasonable expectations. I suspect that Patriots fans after two decades of winning will not be as generous as me with their expectations.

Two Brady Possibilities one more Time

Posted: March 11, 2020 by datechguy in nfl, Sports
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The official start to the free agent season in the NFL is my wife’s birthday and it can’t come soon enough for me because the All Brady all the time on Boston Sports talk radio has reach Bloomberg Ad level status

This comes at a time when the Bruins are ruling the NHL the Celtics have taken a sad (but newsworthy turn) and the Red Sox rotation has reached a point where the best way to describe this season’s potential is to paraphrase Sgt Mulcahy from the Classic John Wayne movie Ft. Apachie when he was asked to judge some rotgut wiskey that was being smuggled to the Indians. Well sir, it’s better than no baseball at all.

All these developments are newsworthy and talk worthy but it’s Brady Brady Brady to the point where one thinks this is his way to soften the blow when he leaves since we’ll all be saying thank God THAT’S over.

But for those of you still wondering on this subject let’s make a few points

  1. While everybody has been saying how Brady wants to play three more years people are forgetting that Bill Belichick also doesn’t have a lot of years left coaching presuming that he was serious about not wanting to coach deep into his 70’s. Brady might have three seasons left in him but Bill likely has no more than five and may only need four to pass Don Shula on the all time list
  2. Belichick knows the road to the Superbowl leads through Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes. No matter how you crunch the numbers there is no available Quarterback more likely to beat Patrick Mahomes in a playoff game in KC than the one guy who did it just two years ago: Tom Brady
  3. Tom Brady is very rich, his wife is very rich and he will remain very rich if it retired tomorrow. The idea that 3-5 million is going to make a huge difference in what he decides to do at this point is simply silly.
  4. Tom Brady’s wife has been wanting him to retire for years. (I suspect his absence from non-mandatory sessions was part of a compromise with her to keep playing.) He is not going to go anywhere that doesn’t have an airtight offensive line.
  5. Please stop pretending it’s a crisis because Brady hasn’t signed before Free Agency. It is seven days to free agency, Tom Brady has never been a free agent. After waiting all this time do you really think he’s going to wait till one or two days before free agency beings and THEN sign with the Pats. That’s simply absurd. He is going to see what the offers are 1st.
  6. Tom Brady not only has nothing to prove, but is apparently STILL pissed off at being passed up till the 6th round by every team out there. I would not be surprised if he pulled a Rocky Marciano on the guys who offered him back money to come back and let those teams offer him big bucks and then sign with the Pats saying: “Hey if you really wanted me you should have drafted me when you had the chance”.
  7. There is only one wildcard in this entire process. Does Brady want to challenge himself by trying to win a Superbowl elsewhere?

All these things are possibilities, but you know what the most important truth is? Just this:

We don’t know what’s going to happen and we won’t know until it happens.

So let’s all chill.

Red Sox Unarmed, Celtics Addition by Subtraction, Bruins Butch, Brady as Batman vs Mutant Leader?, a Definition away from 1st place Plus Great Team Results Under the (Sports) Fedora

Posted: February 29, 2020 by datechguy in baseball, nba, nfl, nhl, Sports, under the fedora

Looking at the Red Sox Roster, while even without Mookie Betts the offense looks imposing, if you look at the Rotation of Sale, Rodriguez, Eovaldi and Velazquez as 1-4 I don’t see innings eaters among them. Particularly since Sale will start the season on the DL

Last season the bullpen was devastated by the lack of starting depth, I see no sign that this is going to be abated this year. Furthermore one or two injuries will turn this team into the 1929 Cubs of my greatest teams Dynasty league. Near the top in runs scored but even higher in runs allowed.

Well it won’t be boring anyways

The Boston Celtics continue to roll their .707 winning percentage is 4th best in the NBA just behind the surprising Toronto Raptors who have not let the loss of Leonard hurt them, the Lakers who lead the west with a .786 percentage and the Bucks who are blowing everyone away at 50-8.

It seems the biggest addition to the development of this Celtics team has been the removal of Kyrie Irving who went to Brooklyn and is now out for the year. It’s worth noting that Brooklyn this season is 4 games under .500 with Irving in the lineup and one game under without him.

It will be a tough slog to get by Milwaukee in the playoffs but Celtics with a talented team minus Kyrie has a much better chance than they did last year with him.

The Boston Bruins seem to remain the poor child of the Boston sports world despite having the most points in the NHL with a five point lead over their nearest rival.

With St. Louis leading the pack in the west there is a real potential for a Stanley Cup rematch which given how last years seven games when should be a source of a lot more excitement around here, particularly when you consider that they were the only Boston team to make it to the finals last year.

There’s still a lot of Hockey to play but I really think they deserve a lot more attention around here, but I suspect until Brady gets signed that attention is going to be lacking.

Speaking of Tom Brady when it comes to the Brady sweepstakes I’m burned out. There seems to be no other topic on sports radio so lets put it simply and repeat the obvious.

Not counting the pats unless a team is a QB away from a superbowl run over the next two year signing Brady for the 30+ Million makes no sense for them and risking one’s reputation going to a lesser team makes no sense for him. I can see Jerry Jones going all in because it’s his nature and I can further see Vrabel deciding he’s like to win one more ring with Brady but other than those two there is no logical place for him to go.

New England remains the best fit both in terms of comfort, fan support and the system. Remember they were only one defensive stop vs Miami away from a 1st round bye last year. This team for all it’s weaknesses is Brady’s best chance at ring #7

The only logical reason for Brady to leave is if he wants to challenge himself and frankly given Brady’s nature that might be a factor, it’s like Batman getting out of the Tank in the Dark Knight to take on the leader of the Mutants. I suspect that decision would prove just as unwise.

On Tuesday I was at Happy Jacks for lunch and they had some kind of skiing on the Olympic Channel on the set where first they go down hill for a bit and then have to climb this other hill to get to the finish line.

The best women’s time ran about 2:28. Then the started with the men, even the fifth place man was finishing better then the best women’s time.

It hit me that all that fellow has to do is declare himself a woman and he’s got gold. Perhaps Elizabeth Warren or someone from the British Labor party can explain how that would be fair to all those women who busted their asses to get their chance for Gold.

Finally My Dynasty online Greatest Teams League will just about done by the time you read this and our division winners have been determined. The 1970 Orioles win the AL East finishing 6-8 games ahead of the 1939 Yankees pending the only unplayed AL series left the O’s 4 games against the 50-100 1934 Detroit Tigers. They will meet the 1954 Indians who needed just one win in their four game series vs the 1973 A’s to clinch and got it courtesy of a 6 hit shutout by Early Wynn. It will be a battle of great starting staffs

In the NL the Brooklyn Dodgers are at 100-50 clinching the NL East against the hard luck 1957 Braves whose 90 wins would have won both the AL or NL west. Brooklyn will finish with four games against their playoff opponents the 1962 San Francisco Giants who have two left vs Pittsburgh before those final four at home vs Brooklyn but with an 11 game lead have plenty of a lead to spare. The only question is will this be a battle of the benches or will the stars come out to shine.

My next all time league will have 24 teams 2 wildcards and will feature all the division winners plus the 24 Senators and the 57 Brewers facing 18 differerent teams including the 2009 Yanks, the 2013 Redsox, the 2016 cubs and last years World Series Champs the 2019 Nationals.

Would be happy to have you jump in and join us.

My Astros Suggestion: The Scarlet Negative Uniform Number

Posted: February 20, 2020 by datechguy in baseball, Sports
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Before I begin let me point out that I’m already on the record as saying that sign stealing should not be illegal and that given technology it’s not worth trying to ban it. The best solution is to make it completely legal and raise the mound to give pitchers the edge.

That being said I’m in the distinct minority as the outrage over the lack of punishment for the players on the Houston Astros vs their manager, and GM and even former bench coach Alex Cora has reached the point where silent Mike Trout, arguably the best player in the game over the last five years has spoken out.

“It’s sad for baseball,” Trout said. “It’s tough. They cheated. I don’t agree with the punishments, the players not getting anything. It was a player-driven thing. It sucks, too, because guys’ careers have been affected, a lot of people lost jobs. It was tough. Me going up to the plate knowing what was coming — it would be pretty fun up there.”

“I lost some respect for some guys,” Trout said. “… All the stuff coming out, it’s tough to see.”

I must admit all I can think of when I read this is what people used to say about facing legendary fastball pitcher Walter Johnson: “You knew what was coming but so what?” but I digress.

People think that the World Series should be taken away but I disagree. The seven games were played (four of them in LA) and the results were the results. I don’t believe in rewriting history.

But I do see the point that the players who actually cheated are getting away Scott free so I have a simple suggestion.

Negative numbers.

As a punishment for their cheating I would require any player on the Houston Astros 2017 season who was on the roster prior to the September call-ups to wear a negative number on their uniform.

This has several advantages

  1. It punishes specifically the players actually involved in the scandal, not others who have joined the team later on and might get tarred.
  2. It’s a punishment that can follow a player to whatever team he is on.
  3. It provides a strong negative incentive for future players to avoid cheating in the future.
  4. It doesn’t punish the scouts or the fans or the lower levels of the organisation that had nothing to do with said scandal.
  5. It is a sanction that while embarrassing doesn’t impede a players ability to make a living. He can still be signed by anyone, play for anyone.
  6. It is an incentive for a sanctioned player to work harder. If I was made to do such a thing I’d bust my butt to put up numbers to prove that I didn’t need that edge to produce.
  7. It would actually create interest in the production of said players and thus interest in the game
  8. Finally it’s a sanction that can be lifted from individual players based on the judgement of the Commissioner’s office.

Frankly I think this is a punishment that would be a great standard punishment for those who cheat in any sport across the board.

If MLB and the players union want to get beyond this scandal I submit and suggest my solution is the best one out there.

I still think they should raise the mound anyway.

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