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Jon Sable: I get twenty five percent of anything I recover

Sherman: That’s kind of steep isn’t it?

Jon Sable: Depends on how you look at it. I figure 75% of something is better than 100% of nothing

Jon Sable Freelance Issue 8 1984

I’ve been watching headline after headline over the last several weeks about Bud Light’s sales down 10, 15 25% or more and for a lot of conservatives like me I find it very satisfying. The hit they have taken and will continue to take has resulted in headlines that are even more important, like this one:

In interviews with various executives, it is made clear that these companies are calculating all the costs and benefits of speaking out on a given topic. At least one company “uses an internal scoring system to determine if, and when, it makes sense for the company to comment on matters that may offend some of its customers and employees or affect its brands.” In light of recent events, though, this company “reexamined an older evaluation process.”

This is all to the good and if your goal is to stop companies from jumping onto the left’s bandwagon it’s a welcome development.

But if you are thinking this is going to cause Bud light to apologize or actually go under, forget it.

There is no way they are going to do so because they rightly figure all this will do is bring down the wrath of the left establishment who while smaller are relentless and supported by traditional and social media.

Secondly they’re not sure that this will get them back the customers they’ve lost. Bud light has become a symbol of something a vast swath of the population hates and too much time has passed for this to change.

But the third reason is the biggest one, and that’s the math.

Let’s assume that Anheuser-Busch is selling 25% Less Bud light then they did a year ago, that still means that they are selling 75% of the beer they were selling.

Now that 25% drop is a big deal when all that beer is already in the loop, but now enough time has passed so AB could cut production so you don’t have 1 out of every four bottles of Bud Light going bad.

Does that mean less profits, well sure. When you sell 75% of what you were selling a year ago that hurts your bottom line. Particularly if you’re producing 25% more of a product then you need.

But if you’re selling 75% of what you were a year ago and PRODUCING 75% less then you’re still making that profit on that 75% and not taking the loss on excess production and labor.

Would they rather be selling what they were before? Sure they would , but I think these guys aren’t going to take chances and let’s face it there are plenty of companies who would kill to have the level of sales that 75% of Bud Light’s former sales are.

Yeah we’ll still have fun headlines and even great stories like this:

The cousins founded Appalachian Mountain Brewery (AMB) in 2011 in their early 20s. They entered a partnership with the Craft Brew Alliance and eventually became part of Anheuser-Busch’s craft beer portfolio. AMB became known as the first brewery in Boone.

Recently, AMB became the first craft brewers to ever buy themselves back from Anheuser-Busch in a move that signals a win for the little guy in the beer circuit and another step forward for the state’s beer scene. Asheville has one of the highest amounts of breweries per capita in the U.S.

But the reality is that Bud Light as a brand isn’t going to die, it will be smaller and make less than it did, but it will still be alive and make a profit, just not as big as they used to.

As Ace Rothstein said at the end of the Movie Casino:

But in the end I wound up right back where I started. I could still pick winners and I could still make money for all kinds of people back home. So why mess up a good thing? So That’s that.