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“I Did that” Ukraine War Variant
Posted: March 6, 2022 by datechguy in warTags: Biden, gas prices, putin, ukraine war
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It’s time to start thinking what happens after Ukraine falls.
You might be forgiven for thinking that all the stories of plucky defenders of Ukraine indicate the war is going well. It’s not. While Ukraine didn’t fall quickly like Georgia or the Crimea peninsula, it is fairly obvious that the war is not going well for them.
The Russians are on the doorsteps of Kyiv. Yes, taking one’s capital isn’t nearly as important as it once was, but it is a big symbol and will give Russia the chance to setup a government body. It’ll be 100% illegitimate, but if Russia enforces it, it doesn’t matter.
They have nearly taken all of the southern land that borders the Black Sea. That’s really important for two reasons. First, that means you can’t resupply directly from the sea, which is the quickest way to bring heavy units like tanks and armor into your country. Second, it means that if anyone was to bring a carrier strike group into the Black Sea, they have to overfly Russian territory that is sure to be crawling with anti-air guns and missiles.
The Russians recently took a nuclear power plant responsible for a pretty large percentage of power in the region. Not only do they have the brainpower to run the plant, but now they can start cutting power to Ukraine.
And we’re only a little over a week in. Remember that it took 100 days to kick Iraq out of Kuwait, and around two months to take out Taliban leadership in Afghanistan. Russia isn’t on the timetable they want, but they aren’t nearly as bogged down as people want to believe.
So what happens when Russia wins? First, you better believe that China is taking notes about Taiwan. Every single sanction we throw at Russia is going to cause the Chinese to build defenses. Kicking out of SWIFT? China already has an alternative, called CIPS, that you can bet they will push as better than SWIFT over the summer. I’d expect China to crack down on its wealthy people with wealth outside of China, disguised as accusing them of “tax evasion.” Essentially, China will make China an island that can be (mostly) self sufficient in order to insulate itself from sanctions.
Europe? The good news is maybe the Europeans will finally get serious about their own militaries. Europe has been comfortable under a US military umbrella, but Ukraine is making them really uncomfortable about now. Remember when President Trump told Germany to pay its fair share of military costs for NATO? Remember when he told France that too? Wonder why Russia doesn’t take those two countries seriously, and what the consequences could be? Well, now you know.
Lastly, I’d put money on Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan pursuing nuclear weapons. Let’s be completely honest, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea could build them tomorrow if they wanted to. They possess the technology and brainpower to do it, and as they watch Ukraine, they are going to want their own assurance that China won’t decide to hurt them. Saudi Arabia would likely just purchase them, potentially from Israel or India, or even North Korea. They won’t wait for the US to not respond to an Iranian attack. Kazakhstan, which dismantled the nuclear weapons left in its territory by the Russians, is likely regretting that decision, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they buy weapons and secretly ship them into the country.
It’s not pleasant, but we should be thinking about what comes after Russia dissolves Ukraine. It might take them a month…but sadly, short of significant powers getting involved, its going to happen.
This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. If you enjoyed this, please consider purchasing one of the authors books for you or a friend.
We are being bombarded with messages to support Ukraine as they defend themselves from a Russian invention. We’re seeing as I noted collectives punishment put on Russians, people censored for supporting Russia and polls showing Americans are supporting arming Ukraine across the board.
Ukraine’s president will be speaking the the US senate by Zoom to lobby for more aid, a no fly zone and NATO membership. All of this is of course his prerogative and makes a whole lot of sense. If my country was being attacked I’d be going all out to get support from anyone and everyone who will listen and might give help.
But let’s get down to reality, while Ukraine is putting up a good fight the only way to beat a mobilized army is with another mobilized army. Ukrainians might be able to conduct a pretty solid patrician war if it falls and it might be able to hold out until the cost for Putin to achieve his war objectives is too high to keep fighting but without troops the chances of the Ukraine actually defeating Russia are below slim.
And that brings us to the headline above.
There is one indisputable fact concerning American war-making since the mid 70’s. It’s done by an increasingly smaller portion of our population. The all volunteer army means that in some areas, particularly liberal ones you are not going to find a whole lot of people who know soldiers or military families. That slice of our population that chooses to be boots on the ground has become i smaller and furthermore this administration and the Obama administration before it has fought a cultural war against those who choose to serve.
So what happens when you have a decreasing base of soldiers and the pressure on your country increases for military action?
Two words: A Draft!
All of these moves seem practically designed to foster a new draft on the youth of America The problem is that unlike the days of World War 2 and Korea parents generally don’t have all that <a href="http://<a href='https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/fertility-rate'>Sourcemany kids to draft:
Conscription was not all that popular when the average woman (and I’m talking actual women not mentally ill folks who think they are) was having three or more children when parents are having one, maybe two even less and that was before people started making pitches for us to go save Ukraine from Russia.
What’s even funnier is the prospect of drafting teen and twenty somethings who are being taught to need safe spaces from microaggressions. It’s one thing for such youth trained in narcissism and virtue signaling to put a virtue signaling Ukrainian flag on their social media accounts. It’s quite another to teach such snowflakes to fight.
Yet all the signs and all the moves of the left keep pointing in this direction.
So before you ask me why I don’t have a Ukrainian flag or my twitter or why I’m not calling for a no-fly zone or NATO membership for Ukraine let me ask one simple question.
Who’s ready to sign up to fight?
I’m VERY iffy About the Use of Guilt By Association Business to Counter Russia
Posted: March 4, 2022 by datechguy in warTags: russia, Ukraine, virtue signaling
Let’s stipulate two things at the start of this post:
It is my opinion, even after hearing Lee Stranahan case for it, that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is wrong and they should pull out of the country at once.
It is my opinion that the sudden unity (which frankly I find suspicious but that’s a post for another day) in the world in punishing ordinary Russians in general and wealthy Russians in particular, is, short of actual military intervention, the most likely method to succeed in at the very worst bringing Putin to the table and at best causing him to rethink the invasion.
Nevertheless, I don’t like it, I don’t like it one bit for a couple of reasons:
It sets a terrible precedent or rather revives one:
The idea that any group of people can be targeted collectively for actions (real or imagined) that are disliked by either leaders or prominent leaders of such a group is an easy way to get abuses. Three examples instantly come to mind. During the settlement of North America it was not uncommon for settlers who had been raided or various tribes for that matter) , to retaliate with little discrimination against the surrounding Indian Tribes, or other white settlers. This cycle of collective guilt was used to justify all kinds of violence not to mention ignoring various treaties protecting tribal rights. In Germany’s Jews were collectively blamed for the nations defeat in world war 1 and the grief afterwards (what the basis for that claim was still alludes me) but the basis for that claim directly took us to the death camps, in fact even today many Arab nations use collective guilt against Jews for any action by the state of Israel that they dislike or even actions taken decades ago. Look at the Jim Crow south and you’ll see this in play. (In fact CRT is the same thing on steroids’ not just guilt by association for people actions but for people’s actions centuries ago) This type of thing doesn’t end well.
Russia is not as “free” as it pretends
You could make the case that the people of the Confederacy could be held responsible for their acts because their representatives were freely elected and you could make the case that the white population of South Africa could be held responsible for their abuses as they elected the leaders who maintained apartheid but Russia is a different matter:
Russia’s parliamentary elections in less than two weeks’ time are shaping up to be the least free since Vladimir Putin came to power 21 years ago, warn opposition leaders and independent election observers.
The details are not a big surprise to anyone who pays attention:
Nonetheless few Putin opponents doubt United Russia will win the elections handsomely, thanks to ballot-rigging, the silencing of Putin critics, the barring of independent candidates, voter intimidation and cash handouts to voters.
“The thinly veiled bribery of voters, all sorts of manipulations, mobilizing administrative [resources] and persecution of the critics of the regime — these are the election tactics of Putin and his party in 2021,” according to Fyodor Krashennikov, an opposition political commentator.
Krashennikov recently left Russia for Europe, joining an exodus of opposition figures who say they’re being chased out by a crackdown on dissent, which has seen dozens of independent media outlets and civic groups forced to shut after being designated “foreign agents” or extremist organizations in a ramping up of repression up ahead of the elections.
Given that Putin is Ex KGB none of this is a big surprise, but this is why the wave of making not the Russian Nation but making individual Russians pariahs who are not connected to the government, that’s just wrong.
And don’t think the precedent of confiscating of their private propriety will end with them, just as the freezing of donors to the Truckers bank accounts in Canada will be the end of it.
I understand the desire to be seen to do something but there seems to be a virtue signaling race (like banning Russian Cats from cat shows, yes you’re reading that right) to be seen to do so and as I’ve already said, doing something, particularly the wrong thing that creates a bad precedent for the sake of doing or being seen to do something is a lot worse than doing nothing.
