Posts Tagged ‘brown/coakley’

All politicts is Local

Posted: January 19, 2010 by datechguy in elections, internet/free speech, opinion/news
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In normal times candidates are looking for a strong person on the top of the ballot to increase turnout for people below it who do not have name recognition but share the party of that top name.

As we’ve reported here before, the one constant in this race has been that people do NOT like Martha Coakley (not even her supporters, I’ve run into only 3 who actually like her). Even with the superstars of the Democratic Party around her, she can not draw crowds comparable to Brown.

When you have an unpopular person at the top of the ticket, the dynamic reverses you need races on a local level that people care about to get your core voters to turn out.

But there is no other race, she is alone, she is trailing in the polls and it is cold and snowy. As of 1:44 p.m. there is STILL no person holding a sign for Coakley at ward 6.

The local democratic pols have absolutely no skin in this race and they see the probability of their regular voters ready to vote republican. They are not going to spend their political capital on a race that appears to be lost for no political reward.

There is nothing local at stake

Update: It’s one thing for the local pols to sit back and do nothing, this is quite another:

He is the president of an American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) local in Worcester and says that he is one of three officials of the local who is supporting Republican Scott Brown.

There is top-down pressure from AFSCME pressuring locals to support Democrat Martha Coakley, but the president of this local (there are multiple AFSCME locals in Worcester) says he tosses those directives “straight in the garbage.”

Make sure you read the last line in that story.

Another field report…Fitchburg 11:20 a.m.

Posted: January 19, 2010 by datechguy in elections, local stuff, opinion/news
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Turnout is steady at the polling station at the Senior center, more signs for the local Sheriff candidate and one sign holder for Brown. He’s getting a lot of positive feedback from the passers by. When asked if anyone showed up for Coakley they said one person stayed 30 seconds and left leaving three Martha Coakley signs turned face down against the building.

He Believes this is going to be the start of something big in the state for republicans.

Update: Stacy’s site is down again.

Update 2: Ran into the Mayor Lisa Wong as she prepared to go to vote, she was enthusiastic in her support for Martha Coakley who she has known personally since she was a young girl.

She thought the turnout might be lighter not just because of the weather but due to “election fatigue” due to so many special elections in so short a time.

When asked to predict the results she did not hesitate to proclaim that Martha Coakley would win the day. She lamented that the race seemed to be turning on national issues rather than local ones but praised contested elections “Contested elections keep us honest”.

Scott Brown certainly seems to providing a contested election.

Update 3: She might be more hesitant if she saw Stacy’s interview with Annie DiMartino. Annie is an old school Tip O’Neill pol. She would NEVER suggest on camera that Brown had the edge if there was the slightest chance for Coakley today.

Oh and one other thing: Annie is a saint and a friend. She never opened her diner on Saturdays because she used it as a base to organize supplies to food banks and directly to the poor and hungry. Anybody who says a bad word about Annie in my presence will have to deal with me.

Update 4: Would you believe I just got a call about a computer job. Absolutely no time to answer the questionnaire right now but I was able to discover that the person calling was a Massachusetts resident and will likely be voting for Scott Brown later in the day.

Update 5: Moran Square Dinner: The feeling there is the same as Mike Barnicle, Coakley ran a horrible Campaign. Among the customers who pass through she runs THIRD behind Brown and Kennedy.

My prediction for the race…

Posted: January 19, 2010 by datechguy in elections, opinion/news
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Ok the time for dithering and for hesitating is over, it is now election day and it’s time for me to directly say what I think the result will be rather than hinting.

I am called DaTechGuy, I do tech support, that is all about looking at a system and deciding what is going on based upon the data that we see.

I have been to events on both sides: Scott Brown’s people are excited, the Coakley people are going through the motions.

The Scott Brown people can’t WAIT to vote, the Martha Coakley people (and by some reports the candidate herself) are discouraged and dispirited.

The Brown people draw huge crowd wherever they go. Coakley rallies I’ve attended were at colleges where many of the students who attended them were not voters. At the Brown rallies a one or two Coakley supports would attend. At the Worcester event with Bill Clinton more registered voters were outside holding Brown signs than inside to see the president. In Boston proper, the city of Tip O’Neill the Brown supporters countering the president’s appearance dwarfed those who were outside for Coakley.

When debugging a system you go where the data takes you. I still have a bit of that pre-2004 Red Sox Fatalism that all Massachusetts residents born before 1985 have, it drove my early skepticism, but the data is the data and from what I’ve seen I there can only be one conclusion:

I say Scott Brown is going to win this race and I don’t think it is going to be close.

Update: Via Glenn Reynolds: Zogby is predicting a Coakley win. He is a big time pollster and I’m an overweight Sicilian in a fedora so attention must be paid. I have seen absolutely no evidence of this on the trail unless that small hint at the Coakley rally on Friday means more than it suggested.

Update 2: We use paper ballots in Fitchburg (glenn will be pleased) so if anything funny goes on it won’t be here.

Update 3: If this report by Michelle is indicative of the tactics being used by the Attorney General’s supporters then they are just fools.

There is nothing more likely to guarantee a full scale electoral revolt in this state and an even larger one nationwide than a stolen election here. This is short term political thinking live for the moment thinking.

First Report 8:39 a.m. Fitchburg

Posted: January 19, 2010 by datechguy in elections, local stuff
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The line at the polling station started before 7 a.m. and the stream of voters remained steady despite slick roads.

Poll workers said the voters were enthusiastic, they hadn’t seen anything like it before in a state where the results of National elections are a given.

Update: Talked to an elderly couple as they left the polls. There were excited to be voting in a contested race in Massachusetts and Voted for Brown. I asked what they hear from people they work with. That includes a lot of non-profits, and college people; traditional bastions of Democratic strength; they report a 55-45 split in favor Coakley among the ones they know. They expressed a worry concerning machine politics and dirty tricks.

At the roadside entrance to the parking lot where people traditionally hold signs for their candidates a single person holding a Brown sign was present when I came in. On my way out we spoke. He had been there since 7 a.m. and people driving in and driving by were honking and giving thumbs up the entire time.

He was joined by two guards from a local prison holding a sign promoting a local candidate for Sheriff. The guards were solidly for Brown as were the people they worked with.

Update 2: Robert Stacy is awake and blogging

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