Da Techguy's (no longer backup) Blog

By Christopher Harper

As the news media focus on stories about Chinese demonstrations against COVID rules, few analysts are looking at the obstacles the protestors face.

President Xi Jinping has installed two of his closest allies as leaders of the Chinese police and security forces.

Wang Xiaohong’s appointment as public security minister in June marked a significant breakthrough for Xi in his consolidation of power.

Xi and Wang have known each other since the mid-1990s when the former rose through the ranks in southeast Fujian province, and Wang was a senior policeman in the provincial capital, Fuzhou.

As China’s most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong, Xi oversaw a sweeping overhaul of the People’s Liberation Army during his first term from 2012 to 2017 when I first visited the country. t the time, China had a robust economy and little dissent.

Xi, however, locked down the propaganda machine even more than his recent predecessors. The party’s most important propaganda organs routinely offer fawning coverage of his activities, such as triumphal recent tours of Hong Kong and Xinjiang, where the dislike for the party leadership is highest.

But the third traditional pillar of Chinese party power, the internal security apparatus, or the “knife,” has been a relative holdout, Peter Mattis, an expert on China’s security apparatus, told The Financial Times.

In the year before Wang’s appointment as China’s top cop, at least three current or former public security vice-ministers were purged for corruption. Two of them were accused of colluding with each other, criticizing “the party’s major policies” and having “hugely inflated political ambitions.” “This is why [Xi’s] rectification campaign against the political-legal apparatus is so important,” said Mattis. “The progression through these areas is how Mao seized power.”

Xi has also worked diligently to install allies at the party’s Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, which oversees China’s police, state security, and courts. In a measure of its importance, the commission enjoys an official budget bigger than the military. Xi protégé Chen Yixin has been the CPLC’s general secretary and de facto head of operations since 2018.

Chen worked closely with Xi 20 years ago in Zhejiang province, where the future president served as governor and party secretary. Xi brought Chen to Beijing in 2015 and dispatched him to Hubei province, the center of the global coronavirus pandemic, to help stabilize the outbreak in 2020.

In a recent speech to internal security officials, Chen said: “Our party, country, and people are so lucky to have Xi Jinping as the core of the party, as the people’s leader and as commander-in-chief.

“He has the aura of leadership, outstanding intelligence, personal charisma, and the people are in his heart,” Chen added. “The more complicated the situation and the more arduous the task, the more we need Xi Jinping as our helmsman.”

While the media focus on et demonstrations, it’s essential to understand precisely the power of the Chinese state to put down any severe threats to the regime.

By Christopher Harper

Many analysts are wringing their hands about the elevation of Chinese President Xi Jinping to an unprecedented third term as head of the Beijing government.

The United States should worry about his intentions because Xi has made it clear that he’s a bad guy. Our government has failed to see that in Chinese leaders like Xi since we have played footsy with them over the last 50 years, hoping to make friends and allowing them to steal, murder, and pillage at home and abroad.

During the four summers I traveled all over China, I saw the good, the bad, and the ugly.

The Chinese build stuff well, particularly roads and bridges. But the country has overbuilt high rises in an investment boom, leaving many vacant apartment complexes.

I remember one Chinese guide asking me: Do you know the Chinese national bird? The crane. The construction crane.

Because of the overbuilding inside China, jobs had to be found for trained construction workers. That helped to create the Belt and Road campaign—a mixture of exporting jobs and gaining allies with massive building projects worldwide. Instead, many developing nations owe Beijing billions of dollars from loans, creating far less benefit than Xi wanted.

Many of my students came from wealthy families who made their money in the private sector. Xi has moved away from the recent trend toward capitalism, potentially alienating those with money.

Although the Communist Party holds almost absolute control over the people, few become members. Virtually all my students hated the mandatory class in the philosophy of Mao, which is required in all universities.

Although the Communist government doesn’t tolerate political dissent, there seems to be a growing resentment of President Xi, particularly after his total clampdown during COVID. Nevertheless, dissidents have become more public, particularly outside the mainland.

More importantly, Xi pushed out or passed over many influential people inside the party. It will be challenging to determine how his actions in the party may ultimately hurt him, mainly since his new economic team seems quite unprepared for the road ahead.

That lack of confidence sent the New York and Chinese markets spiraling downward within hours of Xi’s ascendance.

China also faces some internal economic woes. The one-child policy, which was only recently changed, has left China with an aging population with huge benefits and a dwindling younger population that want office jobs rather than assembly line work.

Although the Chinese military buildup, particularly air and naval, should concern the United States, China hasn’t fought a war in decades. That means no one at the top of the military food chain has experienced the fog of war. That’s a huge minus for China—one quite like what we’re seeing with Russia in Ukraine.

Perhaps most important, the United States knows China is an enemy—not a friend. That’s an important realization. We cannot depend on China for critical minerals. We cannot rely on shipments of anything from China, as we saw during the supply line crisis during COVID.

All told, the elevation of President Xi should worry the United States. But it also serves as a needed wake-up call.