“We must stop this army of Grant’s before he gets to the James River. If he gets there it will become a siege, and then it will be a mere matter of time.”
Robert E Lee 1864
I was very surprised to hear about the new Ukrainian offensive into Russia, I didn’t see it coming and apparently neither did the Russians.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched a up to 25K, or small NATO Corps sized, incursion into the Kursk Oblast that is moving between 7 & 10 km a day.
AFU Bde have between 4 to 9 battalions per brigade with 6 Bn as average, so ~18 Bn seem involved. AFU's Strategic raid🧵 1/ pic.twitter.com/BiqBCtesoH
In one respect it makes a lot of sense, if there is a war of attrition Ukraine loses. It’s sort of like Lee sending troops against Washington to relieve pressure on Richmond. The difference of course is that Ukraine is getting plenty of supplies from the west and has decided to act proactively. If it works out it takes out a main Russian supply hub and complicates things for the troops in Donbass. This could give Ukraine a boost in getting better terms from Russia or perhaps cause them to decide that it just isn’t worth it or even bring down Putin.
Of course it’s also possible that it causes Russia to allocate resources to crush this offensive and drive into the heart of Ukraine figuring they’ve gone all in to raise the troops for this offensive, or even back Putin into a nuclear corner.
I have no idea how this ends but it’s a logical move if you want to change the course of a war that was heading for Ukrainian defeat.
What really surprises me is that this offensive is not only Ukraine having the balls to launch it but that it’s getting almost no coverage in the press.
I find that almost as interesting as the offensive.
Aboard a Chesapeake Bay steamer, not long after his surrender, the general [Joe Johnston] heard a fellow passenger insisting that the South had been “conquered but not subdued.” Asked in what command he had served, the bellicose young man — one of those stalwarts later classified as “invisible in war and invincible in peace” — replied that, unfortunately, circumstances had made it impossible for him to be in the army. “Well, sir, I was,” Johnston told him. “You may not be subdued, but I am.
I usually don’t engage all that much on twitter anymore as so few people know how to have a spirited argument in a respectful way but once in a while I see something that jumps out at me. Such a thing happened today when someone was going over Putin and his faults.
Now as a person who knows his history and Putin’s KGB background you didn’t have to sell me on his faults even before the war on Ukraine began. It also seemed clear to me with the offensive near Kiev that Putin had more in mind that the Donbas region when he got started and fears of his forces driving beyond the borders were legitimate and even if you thought the threat of such a thing was not legitimate if you are a resident of Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia your fear of such a possibility is certainly legit as the three occupations of those countries by Communist Russia, then Nazi Germany then Communist Russia again are still in living memory.
As we all know the Ukrainians managed to stop the push of Kiev but the Russians had success in the Donbas region likely with the help of the large Russian population there left over from the days that they were part of the both the Soviet & Russian empires, Ukrainian counterattacks which seemed promising faded and the front lines have been fairly static for a bit with the Russians holding Donbas and neither side at the moment getting clear advantages.
The Russians have the advantages of numbers and a much larger population to draw from, the Ukrainians have the advantage of fighting on home turf and a large amount of foreign aid that even subtracting what is being used as graft makes a big difference, but a war of attrition by its very nature favors the side with the larger population plus Russia has the advantage of huge domestic energy supplies and a strong market for such energy if they wish to export to India etc.
Still this is bleeding Putin and thus you have seen some peace offers coming from Russia and the Ukrainians have to this point dismissed them. This is their right. They are the ones who are fighting this war, doing the bleeding and dying and living with all the risks of war which when it affects water and electrical supplies can quickly turn a 21st century lifestyle into a 17th or 18th century lifestyle.
Now all of the rest of us have a right to an opinion on what Ukraine should do, but it seems to me that being 10,000 miles away from the front lines and only risking tax dollars it’s not my place to tell people to go and fight and die. Nor is it the place of others to demand they fight to the last nor degrade those who might decide it’s not worth the cost anymore. The idea that Putin is a bad man and working for his own motives and that Ukraine is better off making a peace deal of some kind is not mutually exclusive.
Now of course the ideal would be Putin going back where he started from but it seems to be that even with weapons and supplies from the west the Ukrainians have neither the manpower nor the skill to force the Russians out of the areas they hold. Furthermore there is always the threat of Russia using tactical nukes if they feel the situation gets out of hand. The genie’s that would let out of bottles would not bode well for anyone.
Still in the end it’s their decision. If they feel it’s worth the hardships of war for months or even years to retake the parts of the country the Russians hold, I respect that. It’s their call not mine. There is a nobility in such a call whatever the result and no matter how it works out nobody should think less of them for doing so. Hey, they might think that Putin will reach the point of exhaustion and withdraw on terms favorable to Ukraine, if they can pull that off they deserve congratulations and admiration.
On the other hand if they eventually decide otherwise, that their people just can’t bear the costs of war anymore I’m certainly not going to critique them as Putin apologists or being on the other side or traitors for reaching the point of war exhaustion that I think a lot of the people online pushing them to keep fighting would have hit long ago. It’s very each to make that call from the safety of a keyboard far away in a comfortable home where your food and electricity supply is not in doubt. If they make a deal, they make a deal and it’s their deal to make.
Blogger with a Soviet-made Volga sedan in Sece, Latvia. Behind the car is a newly-built tractor barn.
By John Ruberry
Late last month I traveled to Latvia, where Mrs. Marathon Pundit was born and raised, for the first time in 25 years. I had also visited with her in 1994.
I expected a different Latvia, and indeed that was the case.
First, a little history. A series of nations ruled Latvia, the last being czarist Russia, until 1918. The Bolsheviks recognized Latvian independence in 1920.
But along with neighboring Estonia and Lithuania, while most of the world was focused on Nazi Germany’s aggression in western Europe, Latvia was forcibly annexed by the Soviet Union in 1940. The Nazis attacked the USSR a year later, but the Soviets recaptured the Baltic States later in the war.
Three months before the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Evil Empire recognized the independence of the Baltic States.
When Latvia regained its independence, the population as just 52 percent Latvian. Russians, many of them brought to Latvia to replace Latvians deported to Siberia in the 1940s, made up about a third of the population in the last days of the Latvian SSR. Many of them quickly left after independence, but Russians still make about one-quarter of the population of Latvia. Riga, Latvia’s capital and largest city, has a Russian population of about 35 percent. Russians are a clear majority in Daugavpils, Latvia’s second city.
The Latvia I saw in the 1990s was poor, my guess is, without the abject poverty, economically speaking it was on the level of Mexico.
But in 2004, the Baltic States joined the European Union, also that year they became members of NATO.
Since then, it’s been full steam ahead for Latvia, notwithstanding the 2008-09 recession.
What I saw in Latvia in June was a prosperous European nation. Gone are the gray–literally, they were gray–retail stores. They have been replaced by colorful and brightly lit retail outlets. Many of these stores, as well as hotels, utilize English-language names. Instruction in English began in Latvian schools after independence was achieved. All Latvians under 35 speak pretty good English.
I’m a runner, and I was one of the few when I hit the roads for a workout. Now there are many running, or if you prefer, cycling trails.
During my first visits I saw many Russian-made cars on the Latvian streets and highways. My wife and I traveled hundreds of miles during my nine days there–she will be in Latvia for another week—and I saw just two Russian-made cars, both Ladas. I’m pictured with an old Volga above. That make was discontinued in 2010. Volkswagen, Audi, and BMW are the most popular cars in Latvia.
Mrs. Marathon Pundit and I spent a lot of time in rural communities. She grew up on a collective farm in Sece, which is pretty much at the center of Latvia. They grew an assortment of crops, mostly potatoes, beets, and cucumbers, and while driving thru Latvia in the 1990s, the look of the land betrayed that odd lot cultivation. While Latvia doesn’t look like Iowa–there are few cornfields and about half of Latvia is forested–it’s becoming a nation of mega-farms. Wheat, canola, oats, are the major crops. And potato growing is hanging on.
My wife attended her high school reunion in Sece, she was one of three in attendance from her graduating class of seventeen. One our hosts was another, and the third, almost certainly the wealthiest man in Sece, has been buying, one by one, parcels of land that were part of those old collective farms that were divided up after independence, in Sece, from people to old to tend to the soil, or who have no interest to do so.
The prosperous farmer is the owner of that Volga in the photograph.
The graduating class sizes of my wife’s old school is now roughly 10 students per year. Rural Latvia, just like rural America, is shrinking.
Only rubble remains of the farmhouse where my wife grew up. Thousands of Latvians can attest to the same situation.
Scattered throughout Latvia are the ugly white-brick buildings, poorly built, that are long-abandoned. “That used to the community creamery in Sece,” Mrs. Marathon Pundit said to me. “That used to be the tractor motor pool, the tractors parked next to them haven’t moved in years.” She could have said the same to me every dozen miles or so when we drove past similar structures. Nearly every one of these collective farm buildings have been long abandoned. They are miniature Pompeiis that were never buried, sad monuments to the failure of communism, an economic and political system that never should have been implemented. Sadly, after over a century of proven failure, there are still people falling for Marxist nonsense.
In the cities and the small towns, khrushchevka apartment buildings, known in the West as “commieblock” structures, are still omnipresent. Most of them utilize those same unpleasant white bricks.
And in the cities, especially Riga, you’ll find many abandoned buildings that were Soviet-era factories.
Yes, I know, we have abandoned buildings in our American cities. But Riga has many new buildings–beautiful ones. I’m particularly fond of the National Library of Latvia.
Yes, but what about Donald Trump?
Okay, that was an abrupt transition, but most Latvians don’t like him. With the war in Ukraine showing no sign of ending, and when I was in Latvia when the apparent Wagner Group attempted coup occurred, his name, and that of Vladimir Putin, was brought up many times.
Oh, Joe Biden is viewed in Lativa as an ineffective old man.
But wait, what about Trump?
To a person, Latvians are pissed off about Trump’s compliments of Putin. For instance, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, he called Putin’s move “genius” and “savvy.” I explained that Trump is running to regain the White House, and the former president, dating back to his career as a real estate mogul, is the consummate negotiator, Trump, in my opinion, could be simply playing mind games with Putin. He used a similar strategy with Kim Jong Un. Trump’s flattery is analogous, I tried to reason, to entering a store and being complimented on the shirt I am wearing by a flirtatious saleswoman. Suddenly, my guard is dropped. True, Putin is likely made of tougher stuff than I am. I think.
Only the Latvians I spoke to weren’t buying my explanation. Don’t forget, Russia borders Latvia on the east, and Putin’s puppet state of Belarus is on Latvia’s southeast. In spite of their nation’s membership in NATO, it’s understandable that Latvians are quite nervous about Russia. Dual invasions from Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave and from Belarus into Lithuania could quickly isolate all three Baltic nations.
Latvia faces challenges, a declining population is the biggest one. While life is better now in Latvia, it’s even better in Scandinavia and Germany. European Union membership presents a dilemma for Latvia.
Posted: June 24, 2023 by datechguy in war
Tags: putin, russia
Under the 24 hour rule (and because I was distracted by burial of my Godfather) I paid little attention to the situation in Russia but it appears to be VERY serious to say the least. Revolution in a nuclear power is always inherently dangerous but Wretched the Cat on Twitter who always has excellent insights noted the most serious international aspect of what is going on which leads to what I think is the key question in this situation.
The Key question:
Given the situation in Russia what is to stop China from deciding that instead of risking a confrontation with the west on Taiwan they'd rather decide to gobble up parts of resource heavy Russia since there is a 0% chance of any NATO power moving to stop them?
Or think of it this way, if you think the anarchy in Libya post Gaddafi is bad, picture it repeated in a nuclear armed Russia? How badly is something like that going to end?
And if Putin thinks the entire state is going down and taking him with it what makes anyone think he won’t decide to Nuke Ukraine or even the west to go out in a blaze of glory?
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