We interrupt our series on a world without police in order to explain to Allahpundit, whose take on the President and Seattle is clueless on Seattle:
It’s the Insurrection Act debate all over again. Rather than wait for evidence that local cops and the National Guard can’t deal with the problem themselves, he’s trying to bigfoot local officials by inserting the military into the situation. He really wants a presidential show of force against Americans to underline his “law and order” message.
and explain exactly what Trump is doing.
What’s most odd about this cluelessness is that he almost gets it when he gives POTUS advice on what he should do.
Trump should skip the tough-guy chatter and instead calmly emphasize that a Democratic-run city can’t be trusted to protect its own citizens from woke thugs. Turn up the heat politically on Inslee and Durkan by focusing on their complicity in the takeover, minus any threats. Let voters draw their own conclusions about whether to empower Democrats at the national level this fall.
What Allah doesn’t understand is that this is exactly what POTUS is doing by tweeting the whole “you handle it or I will” stuff because he understand DaTechGuy’s 3rd law of media outrage that states:
The MSM’s elevation and continued classification of any story as Nationally Newsworthy rather than only of local interest is in direct correlation to said story’s current ability to affirm any current Democrat/Liberal/Media meme/talking point, particularly on the subject of race or sexuality.
At a time when the Democrat / Media / left is desperately trying to spin away any contention that they want to disband and/or defund police (not to mention whitewashing protests and looting in general and ANTIFA in particularly the last thing you need is a black ANTIFA warlord taking over parts of a Democrat city, beating people who disagree with him ,extorting cash from merchants and building a friggen wall around the area becoming a national story.
Or do you think it was a coincidence that the Governor felt safe in pretending he had no idea what was happening
He knows the media is in the tank for the Democrat / Antifa / left . As long as the national media continued to ignore or downplay the story he could pretend it wasn’t happening and minimize any Damage to the Democrats both locally and nationally.
However once POTUS Tweeted what’s going on in Seattle becomes a national if not an international story. Now it forces a response, and from some a really stupid one as even Allah notes:
It says a lot about the country in 2020 that both the governor and the mayor thought there’d be more political benefit from goofing on him and his demands than from siding with him against an armed occupation of several city blocks:
Click to view Durkan’s full tweet and you’ll see that it contains some raised-fist emojis — at a moment that part of her own city has been declared off limits to police by “armed paramilitaries.”What?
emphasis (but not BOLD in origination)
Actually it says a lot about both the Governor and the Mayor. They “goofed” on him because to do otherwise brings more attention to their productions of #cluelessinseattle than the President already has.
The reality is thanks to his Tweets Trump can’t lose here. If Durkan or Inslee take action, he can say it was his due to him prompting, but if they don’t every day Mayor Durkan and Governor Inslee play #CluelessInSeattle is a win for Trump and a loss for the Democrats, a loss that the can emphasize in a single tweet at any time without warning to emphasize any individual act of outrage by the “autonomous community” or cowardice or indecision by the Mayor & Governor. (In fact I was was POTUS i’d use the hashtag #cluelessinseattle while doing so.
He can let this simmer for weeks while assigning a General to plan on how to retake the area giving time for a detailed plan to be developed and the forces and resources needed to carry it out can slowly and quietly be marshaled while state officials ditther.
But there is no need to hurry. After all the people of Seattle freely chose Mayor Durkan and the people of Washington freely chose Governor Inslee and I suspect President Trump will wait until all the plans are made and everything is ready to move at a moment’s notice, so that when he decides “enough is enough” he will be able to strike, quickly and decisively.
Until then with no more than an occasional tweet he’ll let the people of Washington State in General and Seattle in Particular enjoy the production of #CluelessinSeattle getting as all voters in a republic do, the results of the government they deserve, good and hard!
The latest in a series of post concerning the removal or the de-funding of police departments and the unintended and/or unconsidered consequences thereof.
One of the hidden costs in every product you buy is the cost of insurance.
Every product you buy online, every time you go to a local store, every time you buy a gallon of gas at the pump or eat at a restaurant (although you likely haven’t done that lately) part of the price you are paying for an item or service include that cost that the shipper, the business owner, the manufacturer paid for insurance.
The insurance business is a lot like the casino business in the sense that it’s all about the odds. In life insurance you look at the numbers concerning life expectancy adjusting for factors such as smoking, flying disease and set your rates accordingly (it’s no coincidence that as life expediency went up near the end of last century ads for life insurance without a medical exam for those 50-80 were everywhere). In collision insurance you calculate the number of fender benders you are likely to have to pay out and base your rates on those odds.
When it comes to business property there are many things to consider. How likely is a robbery, how likely a broken window, how likely a fire, how likely a package will be stolen from a stoop after delivery. All of that is figured into the price a business must pay for doing business.
Now take that batch of risks, and add to that the risk of doing business in a city with either no police or a de-funded police department.
How do you factor that into your price?
Well if you are a small business or retailer you might will find the cost of such an increase prohibitive and not even bother to try. What about the big guys?
Well if you are a business like Wal-Mart you can lean on a mayor to make sure she gives you preferential tax treatment or incentives to stay:
“Mayor Lightfoot said she was on a conference call with Walmart and other major retailers that had stores looted or heavily damaged during the unrest in Chicago. She said she pleaded with them to not abandon Chicago.”
Or you might decide it isn’t worth it at all to reopen and move:
Some may shrug at Wyrobek’s declaration and say that it’s just 50 jobs, but Wyrobek isn’t likely to be alone. He just has the distinction of being the first to go public with his decision to leave, and the reasons for doing so. How many business owners in Minneapolis might decide that the risk of a repeat is just too high, and that the track record of city leadership represents a bad risk?
For that matter, some businesses might not have the ability to reopen in place even if rebuilt. Insurance losses in the riots will go over $500 million, and customers in Minneapolis will have higher rates as a result of the suddenly-exposed risk of doing business in the city. For some businesses, that might be too much of a hurdle for reinvesting in the city.
But move or stay the cost of either that lost tax revenue or extra insurance will be passed on to you. But it goes deeper than that.
Let’s say you don’t go to stores, What happens if you are in Chicago or Minneapolis and decide to go all in on Amazon?
Well we’ve already talked about the return of the shotgun driver carrying a real shotgun but lets go one step further.
If the police are unlikely to respond to a truck or UPS truck getting hit how much less likely are they going to worry about porch pirates?
Now if you don’t get your package you might call amazon and they may say that their responsibility ended when it ended when it was delivered or they might consent to replace it, in fact the cost of such a replacement is likely factored into the, but what happens if you live in a city that has no police and / or defunded police and the cost of such replacements become prohibitive?
Well I suspect you will see and extra charge for such cities call it a black lives matter surcharge, assessed to cover packages lost in those cities because nobody is afraid of getting in trouble for taking them.
But let’s go one step further. Let’s say that BLM decides that such a charge is “racist” and that penalizing residents of such cities over it is also racist. In this politically correct world a business might not want to be tagged so.
In that case if you’re amazon you introduce optional “insurance”. For a small fee if your order is lost or stolen then it will be replaced at no further charge, BUT if you don’t select that option Amazon or any other online retailer might elect to take no responsibility for any package once it’s delivered to that address.
Now I’m sure that our friends on the left might not be pleased about paying this likely new surcharge, but that’s OK, with the higher rates they’ll pay for car insurance, homeowners insurance, renters insurance if they don’t own a home and of course the higher rates on loans as if you live in those cities you’re a bad risk, I’m sure they won’t notice a few more dollars paid for a package from Amazon.
One of the advantages of being a man of my age is that you grew up at a time when westerns were rather popular on TV. One of the distinguishing characteristics of the Western was the lack of a police department in all but the biggest cities. That gives those of us who are old enough a reference to a society where you have no police department.
As I suspect a lot of our friends on the left do not have a reference for a society without police as they go all in on the “Defund the Police” business over the next week or so let me illustrate just one of the may consequences that our ignorant at best or idiotic at worst leftists are not considering because they’re well ignorant and/or well IDIOTS.
Likely you have heard the term “Riding Shotgun” which over the last 50 years has meant riding in the front with the driver.
However 150 years ago riding shotgun meant just that.
If you had someone “riding shotgun” that meant that next to the stagecoach driver whose attention had to be on the horses and what passed for roads you would have a 2nd person next to him, armed with a shotgun.
His job was to watch for armed attackers on any stripe. In an age when lawlessness was common and the entire population was acquainted with death as an everyday risk and thanks to a bloody civil war inoculated against horror over the killing of another a shotgun guard would not have too much to worry about if he found it necessary to discharge his weapon at a potential attacker.
Now with the advent of the automobile, quicker travel, communications and of course a regular police force the necessity for additional armed guards for all but the most valuable cargoes (like a brinks truck) became unnecessary. Furthermore as laws have become stricter and death less familiar the risks of discharging a weapon in defense of a cargo have increased and of course the presence of police who can be called in case of trouble makes the risk of going after a lesser cargo not worth the reward.
But the removal or de-funding of police changes that equation.
First of all if you are a thief looking for a quick score , or an addict in need of money for a fix these lesser targets, a UPS truck making deliveries, a Tractor trailer heading for a store, a mail truck delivering packages or even an UBER driver taking a passenger from an event become very inviting. The absence of police, either due to the force being abolished or because limited resources means nobody to respond to a call & even fewer available to follow up on a robbery after the fact.
This means bad news for a delivery driver who will be taking his life into his own hands in such a city. While any individual package might not be worth a lot a UPS Truck with anything near a full load would be worth enough to hit and loot and what isn’t kept for oneself will turn up at a flea market or pawn shop or sold on eBay.
This means a you need a 2nd person in the truck but if there are no police to call or no prospect that any would come a 2nd person would have no function other than to watch the truck get emptied, unless he was armed.
And if you are talking about a tractor trailer making regular delivers which might have tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars of items in tow the necessity of an armed guard ready to shoot exists every single day.
So while there a lot of downsides to the de-funding or departure of the police force on the plus side this will mean literally thousands of job opportunities for those both with steady nerves and the willingness to take a risk as shotgun riders for trailers, and UPS trucks and other cargo, jobs that have not been available in such quantity in a century and a half.
Alas for our friends on the left burdened with student loans who are triggered by a speaker who disagrees with them or who can’t function if the wrong pronoun is used, it’s unlikely that these new jobs will head their way. Much more likely a maga man, familiar with a gun and who knows how and when to use it (or not) will get that job.
I’m sure the sight of such a armed fellow in the delivery truck as it pulls up to their house or apartment building will be a great comfort to those inside.
The latest in our weekly reports on the Dynasty leagues I play in and run. There are currently two teams open (of 24) in this league and if you have an interest in taking over one of them let me know.
This week we look at the A divisions in both leagues
American League:
1970 Baltimore Orioles 40-29 1st place
Five weeks ago the defending AL Div champion Baltimore was where they were 10 weeks ago in 2nd place but with a recent surge (8-2) they have finally grabbed the top spot in the east. Now that they have it can they hold it?
Heroes: Jim Palmer continues his reign of terror on AL hitters leading the league in ERA, IP K’s and sitting top 3 in 4 other pitching categories, Merv Rettenmund sits 3rd in batting, OBP, hits and Boog Powell’s triple crown numbers .300 15 HR 64 RBI continue to strike fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers
Zeros:Marcelino Lopez has not distinguished himself out of the bullpen as indicated by his 5.12 ERA on a team with a 3.47 team ERA but the real surprise on this list is Brooks Robinson who despite 13 HR & 38 RBI is hitting a mere .188 and whose range factor is the lowest at any infield position on the team.
Wild Cards: Baltimore’s ERA is 2nd in the majors (3.47) thanks to strong starting and excellent defense .989 FPCT 3rd in league and with a .462 Caught stealing percentage running on them is a risky business. All of this leads to a +86 run differential the best in the AL
Coming Attractions: The Orioles have three at home against the slumping 1924 Senators before a quick roadtrip to Anaheim to face the 2002 Angels before a 12 game homestand which starts vs the 2015 Kansas City Royals.
Injury Report: The Orioles remain healthy which might have a lot to do with their steady performance.
1993 Toronto Blue Jays 40-30 1/2 GB 2nd place
Despite a bump in the road following a torrid run the Bluejays remain only 1/2 game out of 1st. Nearing the halfway point of the season it remains to be seen which team will be there over the next few weeks.
Heroes: Rickey Henderson leads the league in walks and stolen bases which is why despite a .235 avg he is 3rd in runs scored. Dwayne Ward 12 saves are 4th in the league but most importantly he has only blown one. Paul Molitor, Roberto Alomar & John Olerud are all hitting .315 or higher with double digit numbers in HR and are all on a pace for 100 RBI & runs.
Zeros:Ed Sprague sits in the dumps at .215 3 HR 25 RBI and an OBP a only .281. While Devon White has managed 11 steals being caught only once with a .228 avg & .310 OB he doesn’t get a lot of chances. But the biggest problem has been Jack Morris whose 1-5 record .388 avg against and astounding 10.46 ERA is the worst in either league for a regular starter.
Wild Cards: Between Henderson, White and Roberto Alomar (13 sb) it’s no wonder that Toronto leads the AL in steals and are 3rd in runs. And with the only turf surface in the AL they’re bound to keep that lead.
Coming Attractions: Toronto finishes their current homestand with 3 vs the 1989 Oakland A’s before heading on the road for 9 1st stop Boston vs the 2013 Redsox then to Detroit for the 1968 Tigers and finishing in DC taking on the 1924 Washington Senators.
Injury Report: All players present and accounted for.
2005 Chicago White Sox 32-40 9 1/2 GB 3rd place
The White Sox Slide has not abated they now find themselves 8 games below .500 and in need of some spark to get themselves back in contention.
Heroes: Mark Buehrle despite a .500 record is making the other guys earn it with a 2.63 ERA and only 23 walks in 123 1/3 innings (best in AL) White the sox have not got to him as much as in the past when Dustin Hermanson gets the ball he does the job (despite a 4.15 ERA) with 12 saves in 13 chances. Paul Konerko’s 21 HR is 2nd best in the AL
Zeros: On a team that’s only hitting .235 Aaron Rowand (.201) and Jose Uribe (.199) are the worst of a bad lot. On the mound Orlando Hernandez remains winless in 11 starts (0-9). That 8.02 ERA .320 avg against and 14 HR in 58 innings might have something to do with it.
Wild Cards: Chicago’s .235 team avg is the worst in the majors, it’s their pitching (4.28 3rd in AL) that’s the reason why they haven’t sunk into oblivion. However while the ERA is good the team is very generous with base stealers 63 of 71 have been successful in swiping a base. Additionally while they are below .500 overall they are over .500 in the division.
Coming Attractions: Chicago is on the road for 3 at Detroit to take on the 1968 Tigers then it’s to Washington to take on the 1924 Senators, the 3rd stop is Kansas City against the 2015 Royals then a critical series in Baltimore vs the 1st place Orioles.
Injury Report: They may not be happy but they’re all healthy.
1998 Oakland A’s 27-43 13 1/2 GB 4th place.
The one consistent in the AL east has been the struggles of the Oakland A’s who simply have not broken out of their early season funk. It’s not too late but the clock is ticking.
Heroes: For the 1st time since I started making the “leader” cards I have a team without a “Hero” in the top 3 of any pitching or hitting category to make a card for them , but in limited duty (43 games) Dave Parker has hit .313 with 4 HR & 13 RBI’s, and despite 4 losses and three blown saves Dennis Eckersley has 13 saves a 1.98 ERA and a WHIP of 0.78.
Zeros: While there is no Oakland A’s worthy of a leader card if I made a card for the most losses Curt Young would qualify currently tied for 3rd in the league thanks to a 7.18 ERA & .314 avg against in 13 starts. Storm Davis is right behind him with a 1-8 record in 13 starts a 5.73 ERA and a .300 avg against.
Wild cards: The biggest shock to A’s fans has been the lack of power. Where they have been signs that both Mark McGuire and Jose Canseso are finally getting out of their funks only the 1924 Washington Senators have hit fewer HR’s than the A’s and only the 2005 Astros have a lower slugging PCT.
Coming Attractions: The A’s are at the start of a 12 game road trip starting with a trip to Canada to case the 1993 Toronto Blue Jays then it’s to Cleveland with for a date with teh 1954 Indians then the heat of Texas to take on the 2010 Rangers and finally out west to Anaheim for a shot at the 2002 Angles.
Injury report: Other than Doug Jennings who is out for the season this is the 1st time that the A’s have not had a player out with injury in a long time.
National League
1955 Brooklyn Dodgers 42-30 1st
After a stint at .500 the Brooklyn Dodgers have put it in gear again 12 games over .500 and 1st place. Are they in a position to run away and repeat. We shall see.
Heroes: The Duke of Flatbush continues to rule in the NL Duke Snyder‘s .314 (8th) 23 HR (2nd) 55 RBI (9th) are all big as are Roy Campanella‘s .303 21 HR (3rd) 64 RB (3rd) who also throws in a range factor of 7.54 behind the plate throwing out a 3rd of people trying to steal. Meanwhile on out of the bullpen Sandy Koufax is 4-0 with a save (and one blown) with a 1.59 ERA a WHIP of 1.06 and a .180 avg against.
Zeros:Jim Hughes has appeared in over 50% of the dodgers games eating 46 2/3 innings out of the pen. Unfortunately that has come with a 6.56 ERA a .295 avg against a 1.99 WHIP and 15 homers allowed. Billy Loes is 5-1 in 12 starts but is averaging only 5 1/3 innings per start with an ERA of 5.04 so that luck can last forever. At the plate Don Hoak .165 2 HR 11 RBI and Sandy Amoros .200 3 HR 22 RBI haven’t delivered.
Wild Cards: The only people who have had more trouble against the Dodgers than left handed pitchers (16-8) has been American League teams (5-1). Of course leading the Majors in Home Runs (114) and the NL in batting (.271) might have something to do with it too.
Coming Attractions: The Dodgers continue their long road trip heading to Milwaukee to face the 1957 Braves then to Chicago to take on the C leading 2016 Cubs and after a jaunt to Philly to face the 2008 Phillies finally finish their trip in Arizona against the 2013 Diamondbacks.
Injury Report: These Dodgers are both happy and healthy.
1975 Cincinnati Reds 41-37 4 GB 2nd
After a brief stint at the top of the standings the Reds have lost both 1st place and their 2nd manager this season. Can they right the ship and find a skipper to get that big red machine back on top?
Heroes: There are reds all over the leaderboard Johnny Bench leads the NL in RBI’s and is 4th in HR George Foster is right behind him in both. Pete Rose in 3rd in hits and Joe Morgan leads the lead in walks and is 2nd in stolen bases.
Zeros: Cincinnati’s troubles come down to starting pitching epitomized by Fred Norman (14 starts 1-7 1.75 WHIP 6.15 ERA .289 avg against) and Jack Billingmam (14 starts 3-9 6.49 ERA .309 avg against )
Wild Cards: The Reds are 2nd in Stolen bases and 3rd in runs and have the 3rd best avg against .253 but are also 2nd in swinging and missing and have a losing record both on the road and against left handing pitching.
Coming Attractions: the Reds finish their current road trip against the 2005 Houston Astros before coming home for a quick series vs the 1962 San Francisco Giants before hitting the road again visiting Arizona and the 2013 Diamondbacks then it’s off to DC to take on the 2019 Washington Nationals
Injury report: They might have trouble keeping managers on the field but their players are all there.
1986 New York Mets 36-39 7 1/2 GB 3rd
The Mets remain in a holding pattern hovering at .500 not dropping far below nor surging ahead. Unless that changes the divsion will be out of reach and it will be a question of playing for a wild card spot.
Heroes: Wally Backman is setting the table with a .333 avg (3rd in NL) and a .384 OBP leading to 45 runs. If Backman is setting the table Keith Hernandez (.294 25 2B 41 RBI) & Daryll Strawberry .281 14 HR 51 RBI are clearing it regularly. On the Mound Bobby Ojeda’s 3.01 ERA is leads the team & is 7th in the league.
Zeros: It’s the bullpen that’s been the Mets issue Doug Sisk (40 app .6.46 ERA .327 avg against 1 bs in one chance) Rick Anderson 7.59 ERA .339 avg against 1 bs in one chance) and Bruce Berenyi .377 avg against 8.60 ERA 2 sv 2.40 WHIP. Roger McDowell’s numbers are better 4.76 ERA .264 avg against but he’s blown 5 saves in 8 chances.
Wild Cards: Only Arizona and Washington have blown more saves in the NL than the Mets but it can’t all be laid at the hands of the pitchers as NY has the worst fielding percentage in the majors at .973 and 77 errors nobody else is even close.
Coming Attractions: It’s 3 in Milwaukee to play the 1957 Braves followed by 3 more in Chicago vs the red hot 2016 Cubs before heading home to face the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies.
Injury Report: Everyone is healthy which eliminated one excuse for the bullpen.
2013 Arizona Diamondbacks 30-42 12 GB 4th
It’s been a season at the bottom for Arizona, but with a New Manager whose father led his team to the top of the Futility league AL West can his son in his 1st managing job take this team out of the basement and into the hunt for the wild card?
Heroes: While Paul Goldschmidt is no longer 3rd in HR (Ryan & Snyder are still 1 & 2) as he was before with 81 hits 18 HR (6th) and 49 RBI is a problem for any pitcher in the league. Patrick Corbin’s 3.24 ERA & 1.37 WHIP means opposing batters have to earn it and out of the pen Josh Collmenter has done his job with a .185 avg against and a 0.87 WHIP.
Zeros: Wade Miley has not done the job with a 6.14 ERA and a 2-6 record in 16 starts. Joe Thatcher out of the pen in 35 appearances “boasts” a 9.21 ERA a .347 avg against and a 2.02 WHIP. At the plate on a team that hasn’t produced much the bottom of the barrel is Miguel Montero hitting .200 with 1 HR and 21 RBI in 239 AB.
Wild Cards: Only Houston has a worse team batting avg than Arizona or fewer Home Runs but if you’re visiting in Arizona or throwing a lefty watch out because they are over .500 against both.
Coming Attractions: after three games in Houston to face the 2005 Astros. They head home for a 12 game series with 2008 Philadelphia followed by 1962 San Francisco,
Injury Report: Brandon McCarthy will be out for the year and Aaron Hill will not be back for a month.
