Ok the time for dithering and for hesitating is over, it is now election day and it’s time for me to directly say what I think the result will be rather than hinting.
I am called DaTechGuy, I do tech support, that is all about looking at a system and deciding what is going on based upon the data that we see.
I have been to events on both sides: Scott Brown’s people are excited, the Coakley people are going through the motions.
The Scott Brown people can’t WAIT to vote, the Martha Coakley people (and by some reports the candidate herself) are discouraged and dispirited.
The Brown people draw huge crowd wherever they go. Coakley rallies I’ve attended were at colleges where many of the students who attended them were not voters. At the Brown rallies a one or two Coakley supports would attend. At the Worcester event with Bill Clinton more registered voters were outside holding Brown signs than inside to see the president. In Boston proper, the city of Tip O’Neill the Brown supporters countering the president’s appearance dwarfed those who were outside for Coakley.
When debugging a system you go where the data takes you. I still have a bit of that pre-2004 Red Sox Fatalism that all Massachusetts residents born before 1985 have, it drove my early skepticism, but the data is the data and from what I’ve seen I there can only be one conclusion:
I say Scott Brown is going to win this race and I don’t think it is going to be close.
Update: Via Glenn Reynolds: Zogby is predicting a Coakley win. He is a big time pollster and I’m an overweight Sicilian in a fedora so attention must be paid. I have seen absolutely no evidence of this on the trail unless that small hint at the Coakley rally on Friday means more than it suggested.
Update 2: We use paper ballots in Fitchburg (glenn will be pleased) so if anything funny goes on it won’t be here.
Update 3: If this report by Michelle is indicative of the tactics being used by the Attorney General’s supporters then they are just fools.
There is nothing more likely to guarantee a full scale electoral revolt in this state and an even larger one nationwide than a stolen election here. This is short term political thinking live for the moment thinking.
