Archive for the ‘primaries 2012’ Category

Mitt Romney learning from 2008

Posted: March 31, 2011 by datechguy in elections, politics, primaries 2012
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One of the most important things a pol can do is to learn from mistakes.

The key reason why John McCain managed to win the nomination was the division among those who opposed him. McCain was clearly one of the least popular candidates among conservatives but the division of the conservative vote allowed John McCain to win with small relative percentages of the GOP vote.

Whatever Mitt’s faults on the leadership front on the brains and strategy front he is certainly first rate. I suspect he identified early the dynamics that would hurt him most:

1. Sarah Palin is the single biggest threat to his nomination in terms of a candidate

2. Romneycare is the biggest threat in terms of a policy

3. There are still plenty of people who consider Mormonism a cult who would vote against him in primary states

He also identified one huge benefit:

The establishment GOP hates and fears any Palin-like candidate and likes him.

So how do you manage to use these facts in your favor? Easy:

1. Use the MSM to neutralize Palin: Romney knows that he will need Palin supporters to defeat Obama in 2012, thus he can’t attack Palin directly thus he has used GOP proxies who are ostensibly not connected to him to do so. The media who hates Palin even more than GOP insiders are happy and thrilled to promote them any chance they get. Thus you get the narratives concerning Palin established while not dirtying your hands. The best example is the silence on her India trip while her mispronouncing of “skirmish” was news.

2. Support the Ringers: One of the oldest tactics in politics is to run a “ringer” to siphon off votes from an opponent. Right now if you look at the people running or “exploring” running you see quite a few strongly conservative folks. Herman Cain, Michelle Bachmann, Newt, perhaps Huckabee, Haley Barbour and of course possibly Palin. All are popular with tea party people, evangelicals and social conservatives. For Mitt Romney to win the nomination that strongly conservative tea party vote needs to be divided. With enough strong conservatives in the race the primary vote will be divided. There is always a danger that one of these people will “break out” (Herman Cain in particular is a danger to do so as I’ve not found a conservative or tea party person who dislikes him) and become a really big threat, but as long as that doesn’t happen it’s in Romney’s interest to keep the smaller or regional candidates in the game since very few of the votes they will siphon off would be from him

Expect Romney’s biggest donors to be approached to help fund any candidate that he thinks will drain votes early in the primaries. Once that happens and the damage is done, or if any of them get enough momentum to become a threat the spigots will be turned off.

As far as I can see this is the path to the nomination for Mitt since he certainly isn’t busy hitting the administration on its policies. Of course the nomination won’t be enough, he has to actually win the general, so when all is said and done he will have to copy McCain in one other way, picking a strong conservative as a running mate to keep the tea party and conservative wing from leaving in disgust.

Why Trump’s Birth Certificate statement will resonate

Posted: March 24, 2011 by datechguy in politics, primaries 2012
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…in three sentences.

My wife is starting a new job, we will be getting new insurance because of it. We are REQUIRED to provide not only our marriage certificate but the long form copies of the birth certificates of both of our children.

Having to produce a birth certificate is not an irregular occurrence for the average person so when Trump says this to the general public, they understand it.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, It’s my opinion that the president is born in Hawaii, I believe that the reason for withholding permission for the certificate was to keep this alive as a club to beat people with, but I’m starting to think it is backfiring. The whole idea that something is being hidden is so embedded in the public’s mind that it establishes an idea of “otherness” that is going to hurt come re-election time. This is the law of unintended consequences.

I’m also thinking that the willingness of Trump to say aloud what a lot of other people are thinking but not saying is going to help a lot with people who aren’t involved every day. This is the 2nd time Trump has done this and both times its paid off.

Do I think he will win the nomination? No, will he make things interesting in terms of the MSM? Yup.

Update: On Morning Joe just now Joe Scarborough nailed it pointing out that the liberal audience of the View applauded when Trump said this. If the White House doesn’t see that this is trouble then they ought to. And the attempt to describe Trump as “going birther”, Mika’s disgust and the exiling of the segment to the “News you can’t use” segment doesn’t change the fact that an awful lot of people saw him say it and heard that applause.

Update 2: In comments Haiku Guy nails it big time.

What Trump is doing
Is giving us permission
To ask the question.

Exactly right.

Update 3: Here is the clip:

That audience response tells the story.

Update 4: CNN is on it.

Update 5: Great minds think alike: Bill Jacobson:

Listen to the crowd reaction beginning at the 2:08 mark, as Donald Trump vigorously and repeatedly states “I want him to show the birth certificate.” The crowd claps loudly to Trump’s words. (It seems an unlikely time for the producers to have flashed an applause light, so it is fair to assume the crowd reaction was spontaneous.)

Update 6: Now a memorandum thread. Since Robert Stacy McCain is sick today I’ll steal his line to Hit DaTipJar and encourage you all to check out my Radio Show this Saturday at 10 a.m. on WCRN AM 830 you can listen online here.

Update 7: Treacher at the Daily caller hits both of my points:

That’s why I don’t put any stock in the Birther stuff. If it were true, wouldn’t Hillary’s people have dug it up and used it?

and

But what’s really revealing here is that not only is he not laughed off the stage, but he gets a couple of applause breaks for it. Hey, Barry, when you start to lose the hens who’ll actually sit through a taping of The View…

…and this thread is still generating comments.

Update 8: Salon declares Trump irrelevant, and then spends 10 paragraphs going after him.

Obama Secretly Funds Radical Anti-Gay Hate Group…

Posted: March 17, 2011 by datechguy in culture, internet/free speech, primaries 2012
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…at least that would be the headline at Think Progress if they were 1. Consistent 2. Not multicultural cowards, and 3. Covering this story:

“America is not showing its power it’s showing appeasement, they are laughing all the way to the bank” Nonie Darwish

Personally I’ve got no problem with the fixing the Egyptian sewer system (promote the general welfare and all that) but we need to realize that we are earning no brownie points by doing any of this stuff. I really think the whole funding Mosques overseas stuff is just to get us wound up.

Meanwhile ThinkProgress hits Newt Gingrich for opposing Gay Marriage along with the majority of the country, Stacy notes:

Except, of course, that there wasn’t anything “secret” about the “funneling”: It was duly reported as required by law and, as Think Progress itself notes, Gingrich was outspoken in his support of the effort “to oust three of the nine Iowa Supreme Court justices” who had voted to mandate same-sex marriage in that state.

Is it “hate” to oppose same-sex marriage?

It is “hate” to oppose Obama, “Gay Marriage” is just one club to beat his opponents with, additionally Newt is a particular target because he committed the ultimate sin to them, he converted to Catholicism.

Exit question: Under Think Progress’ definition since no president has ever supported Gay Marriage and until the mid nineties no congressman ever talked about the subject would they all be considered “Haters”? I’d ask if they would call Islam “Haters” for the same reason but that one is too easy.

We can be sure that Herman Cain has seen Maffa 21

Posted: March 15, 2011 by datechguy in abortion, politics, primaries 2012
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Considering he is willing to say this aloud:

“You probably don’t hear a lot of people talking about this,” Cain said. “When Margaret Sanger – check my history – started Planned Parenthood, the objective was to put these centers in primarily black communities so they could help kill black babies before they came into the world.”

“It’s planned genocide,” Cain claimed.

“It’s carrying out its original mission,” he continued. “I’ve talked to young girls who go in there, and they [Planned Parenthood] don’t talk about how you plan parenthood. They don’t talk about adoption as an option. They don’t say, ‘Well, bring your parents in so we can sit down and talk with you, and counsel with you before you make this decision.’”

This is a basic truth, it’s a reason why the lonely conservative considers Cain a favorite, and I must say the willingness to say an unpopular truth very much appeals to me.

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