Archive for the ‘war’ Category

Five Iran War Thoughts Under the Fedora: Ignorance is the rule, Yes they get to shoot back, Ukraine gives a hand, The only two advantages Iran Has, Israel’s big Drone Endgame

Posted: March 13, 2026 by datechguy in middle east, under the fedora, war
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One of the disadvantages of the all volunteer army is that you have 1% of the population serving so that the vast majority of people in the nation have absolutely no idea how the military or how war works.

A good example of this is the fuss over the meals for the troops but a better example is the shock, SHOCK that the enemy gets to hit back in war.

Without history being taught properly combined with only movies & TV to give them a reference means people don’t know what they’re talking about & are easily taken.

We have pretty much destroyed the air & navel arm of Iraq and have done so at a cost so minimal that military historians will be writing about it for centuries.

Yet because of the ignorance that I mentioned above, the slight amount of causalities we have suffered are being treated as a disaster by the left & being sold as failure.

This is war, the enemy gets to shoot back and occasionally they will get lucky and occasionally we will get unlucky with a failure of equipment or even human error.

Additionally our enemies (Russia & China) while not providing direct aid are undoubtedly proving whatever intelligence available

This is war and in war some of our troops are going to die. This is a reality and the price that’s necessary to destroy an enemy who has been killing our people since I was a teenager.

Ukraine has gotten a lot from us over the last 4 years to help in their war vs Russia (and not just the graft either) and until now they had little that we needed.

But there is one thing that they have in abundance that we do not have & would be most useful in the effort to destroy the Islamic republic: years of practical experience in drone warfare, both in offence and defense.

It is reported that Ukraine is now sharing that experience with us and those that are being hit by Iran.

This is a smart move by Ukraine, if Iran falls one of Russia’s key allies goes with it and thus weakens Putin further. Additionally such help make it more likely that Trump will be more amenable to releasing more aid with less questions is a helping hand is given.

Nothing builds an alliance more than mutual self interest.

To say Iran is getting pummeled is the understatement of the year. No level of propaganda, tweet farms & paid influences spinning makes all of this any less of an absolute disaster to the Iranian Muslim leaders and their networks.

Combine this with Israel’s use of intelligence to use drone attacks on small checkpoints to eliminate those whose job it is to repress the people and all the cards look poor for them.

They do however have two advantages one tangible and one not.

The tangible advantage is the clock. The war powers act gives Donald Trump 60 days to do what he can without a vote in congress. While there is every chance he would win such a vote (no matter what the MSM says) the longer the war goes on the better the chance that any kind of reversal can be played upon by the left or that the cowards in the congress will be subject to their fears.

The intangible advantage is Islam itself.

I suspect there are plenty of people in the Iranian government working for the Mullahs or the secret police that are IINOS (Islamic in name only) who are doing what they do for the money and/or doing it out of fear for their families or even to “be somebody”.

But I also suspect that there is a percentage of these people who are true believers in radical Islam, Who think that “Death to America” isn’t just a chant but a holy command.

Those true believers will fight to the death because they think they’re serving God. If there are enough of them it will be real trouble for us because people who don’t care if they die are capable of anything.

Granted neither of these are big advantages but you have to play the cards you have.

Finally when it comes to drones Israel has made it an art.

With information given via Iranians in Iran they have been able to strike at individual checkpoints within cities. In other words at the people who actually do the killing of protestors who want the Mullahs gone.

Even if the US stops bombing if Israel can keep this up then the game is up and done. Without those guys holding the people back there is no way to stop a popular revolution.

I think the Mullahs might lose their country before I officially lose my job

I’ll Believe it When I See It

Posted: October 9, 2025 by datechguy in Always look at the bright side of Trump, middle east, war
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Yesterday during the Antifa conference Marco Rubio upstaged the rather important meeting with the news that they where on the verge of a breakthrough in the middle east.

Now I have woken up and the news is Hamas has accepted stage one of the peace deal and the hostages (at least the living ones) will be released on Monday.

Now I don’t for one minute doubt the deal making ability of this Trump administration which has pulled rabbits out of their hats on more occasions then I can count.

But what I DO doubt is the sincerity of Hamas, I doubt that they will release the living hostages, I doubt that they will release the bodies of the dead, I doubt they will disarm and I doubt they will give up killing Jews.

My guess is that they will (at absolute best) release the living hostages and then dig in their heels figuring Trump will not be as adamant about dead bodies when it comes to pushing the peace plan. Of course we might not actually see all the living hostages released either. Given Hamas’ history we also might not see any hostages released and Hamas back out at the last minute.

Now in fairness I’ve argued from the beginning that Israel should consider the hostages dead and crush Hamas without mercy. I know that’s a hard thing but the destruction of Hamas will save a lot more lives in the long run, but it’s not my call it’s Israel’s call and if they were willing to lose troops to free these people then so be it.

Bottom line: I’ll believe that the hostages will be released when they are all turned over to Israel till then I’ll watch and wait.

I hope I’m wrong.

If I am and Trump not only gets the hostages, but secures peace then the Nobel Peace Prize will not be good enough for him.

Trump Cancels Qatar’s Insurance Policy

Posted: September 9, 2025 by datechguy in middle east, war
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I’ve said for a long time that Qatar by allowing US bases has pretty much bought an insurance policy to prevent Israel for striking them for harboring Hamas not to mention financing antisemitism all over the world.

A couple of days ago President Trump said this:

President Donald Trump has delivered what he called a “last warning” to Hamas, urging the group to accept a U.S.-backed proposal to release hostages from Gaza — a deal he said Israel has already endorsed.

Needless to say Hamas has not released the hostages.

So two days later we discovered that the Qatar Insurance policy has run out:

The IDF and the Shin Bet on Tuesday confirmed a stunning attempt to assassinate Hamas’s leadership in Doha, Qatar.

After two years of Qatar hosting negotiations between Israel and Hamas over hostage exchanges and ceasefires, the government reached the decision that killing the remaining Hamas leaders was more important than leaving that diplomatic channel open.

A statement said that the leaders targeted were responsible for the October 7, 2023, massacre of around 1,200 Israelis in the country’s South, as well as managing the terror group’s operations for years before that.

And there is reason to believe that Qatar understood this and tried to warn Hamas to play ball

they didn’t and via Hotair and Ed Morrissey (who has an excellent piece on this) it’s likely they will never do so again:

The last word on this:

The President has put out a statement saying Israel attacking Qatar is not conducive to their or the US’s goals but also saying hitting Hamas is.

I think Trump has had it with Qatar and they have decided what profit a man if he gains the entire world and loses his life, and thus have decided that Hamas in Qatar was not worth the risk.

The Russia Reality or Why Peace

Posted: August 17, 2025 by datechguy in Always look at the bright side of Trump, Blame Trump, in Ukraine, politics, Uncomfortable Truths, war
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Yesterday I was at an event at the American Heritage Museum in Hudson MA. They had a parade of World War 2 Tanks: Stewarts, Shermans and a Jackson. For those with money to burn you could actually ride in said tanks and if you had a LOT of dough to burn you could even getting a driving lesson or two.

Their collection of items from a Russian T-34 to a German Panther and a British Matilda and lots more. It was like a living exhibit of the book Great Weapons of World War II, they also has tanks and planes from later eras as well as other exhibits.

But the real prize of a 103 year old gentleman who served in the Pacific both in New Guinea and in the Philippines at the same time as my father. My sons born in the 1990’s have known few such men while in my youth I was surrounded by those like him who had seen combat in World War 2. I met plenty when my dad took me to the local VFW and such events. I found myself very moved when I realized that this was likely the last such man I would ever meet.

And that, in a round about way brings me to Russia, the talks between Trump and Putin and the attempt to end this war.

Before anything considers this one must look at Russia honestly, for all the efforts of Peter the Great and all the perceptions of elites, Russia is not a western country, it’s people are not western people and it does not think like a western people.

Russia is a country that suffered defeats. They lost small wars to Japan and Poland in the last 150 years and had massive defeats both in Europe and in Russia proper to the armies of Napoleon and Hitler before their armies eventually marched to victory in bringing down both Napoleon with the help of the Brits and Prussians and Hitler with the help of America and England.

No Russian leader will forget that in each of the previous two centuries they were invaded by the single greatest war machine in the world of the time and both had to be repelled at great cost. In us the Russians face the greatest war machine in the history of history. No amount of assurances, deals or negotiation is going to convince any Russian leader that the west does not have designs on their territory and or their vast resources.

Furthermore they remember that at one time the Ukraine was the bread basket of Russia and that the Baltic states and Poland once flew their flag.

Their misadventure in Ukraine (which they see internally as protecting a Russian minority as well as reclaiming a chunk of “historical” Russia) is in many ways a way to create a larger buffer between Russia proper and western armies.

When I say “misadventure” I’m referring to their reverses. The Ukrainians who have no business beating a world power who dwarfs them in population and arms have been stubborn, creative and have managed quite a few moves to set a complacent Russia on their heels but the reality is this:

Ukraine can not win a war of attrition: Eventually they will run out of manpower while Russia can bring not only their own troops but North Korean troops to the fight. Basically they’re in the same position as Lee being driven towards the siege of Petersburg. They can make some impressive moves but It’s only a matter of time.

The only way that Lee could have been saved would have been massive intervention by a foreign power but England was not going to war to save the Southern Confederacy and France was not going to war without England.

In the same way the only way Putin can be defeated militarily would be if west decided on open war.

Europe will not go to war without America and the bottom line is America is not going to risk a war that at best would cost tens of thousands of lives and at worst will result in a nuclear exchange that would not spare the American mainland not to mention what would happen to eastern Europe when the scourge of the last World War is still in living memory.

There are plenty of self righteous keyboard warriors who have no problem with hundreds of thousands of Americans and others sent to Ukraine to risk death as they sit far away imagining themselves immune to the costs but to those of us who live in the real world and understand how many men like the old gentlemen I met yesterday didn’t come back think twice before committing our young men to the risk of death in a fight that frankly isn’t ours.

That being said a deal must be made, such a deal has to take into account the realities on the ground plus understanding that you don’t want Putin to be in a situation where a more belligerent rival will replace him on the promise of winning a war he lost.

Thus Trump will negotiate with a goal of preserving as much of Ukraine as possible as an independent state with the ability to defend itself while taking into account both what the Russians currently hold and the ethnic issues of Russians in said area.

It’s not going to be easy anything short of Putin begging for forgiveness will be painted as a defeat by the left and anything that doesn’t give Putin sovereignty over most if not all of Donbas will likely cause grief to the Russian hawks, but only quietly as Putin is still Putin.

Let’s hope Trump can pull it off, if anyone can it’s him.

A final thought, all of this was made possible by Joe Biden & Co who signaled to Putin that he had no issue with him going to take the Donbass (the media might have forgotten Biden’s words before and at the start of the invasion but I haven’t). Putin seeing Biden for what he was, a weak horse not actually in charge, decided to go all in and try to take the lot rather than grabbing the piece old Joe’s team thought he was going for. For all his faults (and he has PLENTY) if Zelenskyy doesn’t very publicly turn down Biden offer of escape and declared he would stay and fight we might be talking about Russia threatening Moldovia or even Belarus, assuming he didn’t gobble them up while the weak Biden admin was his only threat.

If Trump adds peace in Ukraine via a deal that preserves Ukrainian independence to his already impressive case for the Nobel based on his peace efforts worldwide, the prize will likely be automatic. If it happens we must remember that whatever else I might think and whatever else he has done the reason why there will be a Ukraine still there for Trump to save was because of Zelenskyy.

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