Posts Tagged ‘supreme court’

Five Post Ginsberg Thoughts Under My Fedora Bottom Line Trump Wins This Fight

Posted: September 19, 2020 by datechguy in Always look at the bright side of Trump, elections, politics
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For those who missed last night’s bonus podcast on the death of Ruth Bader Ginsberg here are five thoughts about the political effect of Ginsberg’s Departure from the court.

1. The Help this will Provide for Democrats will be Minimal at Best.

While some younger voters and Bernie Bros will turn out over this and a bunch of money will be raised over this none of it will be enough to counteract the effect of riots, murder and looting particularly in swing states.

It’s one thing to care about a SCOTUS opening but that pain is in theory, riots looting and burning out people in your state or city affects YOU.

Furthermore for those conservative who still find Trump icky the prospect of finally securing a John Roberts Proof majority will be enough to secure all but the most bought NeverTrump consultant.

2. Democrat threats of riots and violence (and any actual violence) are going to make things worse for them

Resa Aslin’s offers threats of violence if the President nominates a replacement for the late Justice Ginsberg

https://twitter.com/rezaaslan/status/1307107507131875330

The BLM riots and violence are already costing the left nationwide. The same coming over a GOP nomination If there is a stupider move than this I can’t think of it:

Of course I’d just as soon do without riots and violence and not have the political advantage that will come of it just as would have just as soon not had the riots and looting and violence nationwide as I don’t believe in such things no matter what the advantage. However I don’t have a veto over this, the left does and I predict they will not exercise it.

3. Trump will nominate a replacement soon, perhaps as soon as Monday.

The Ruth Bader Ginsberg death watch has been on for a long time and President Trump has been ready with a candidate to replace her for a year. or more, most likely Barrett but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a nominee that the left isn’t prepared for to throw off their plans of character assassination.

Additionally President Trump understands political power better than any president since Lyndon Johnson and he understands that delay helps the Democrats while a quick nomination and a vote before the election will force the GOP to choose sides in an election where the GOP base will definitely hold any member accountable for giving in.

He knows the left was down before this nomination. He is going to stop on them and finish them off by nominating a candidate and winning a vote on it BEFORE the election and he’ll succeed because….

…4. Democrats threats to GOP Candidates over this are empty

Any GOP member up for re-election from Thom Tillis to Susan Collins who thinks they MUST oppose a vote now because of a Democrat backlash is assuming that the left wasn’t already going all out to destroy and defeat them anyways. As I said in a twitter exchange last night:

While it’s not inconceivable that a Mitt Romney or a Lisa Murkowski who has a few years before facing voters again might betray the voters who elected them for gain or spite any GOP candidate who hopes to be elected this time around who falls for these empty threats of retaliation if they vote with POTUS and the even more empty promises of mercy from the left. When it comes down to it Trump will have his fifty votes with Pence for this reason and also because…

5. …The media/left can’t significantly affect this fight because they threw away their credibility over the last four plus years

If the Democrat / Media / Academic / Hollywood left had treated Donald Trump as a normal regular president they might have been in a position to stop a vote on a Trump nomination to SCOTUS before the election or perhaps even the nomination itself.

Instead they spent all their credibility on the Russia business, impeachment, the Steele Dossier, Mueller and a million other phony stories to try and bring him down to the point where their latest pre-October surprise only ended up causing Tara Reade to trend again (oh and btw any other October surprise they had in mind is now toast).

Chuck Todd recently hit the nail on the head when he said

“As I’ve said, the only way to understand this is to realize he doesn’t have shame about it. And when we lose our ability to shame a politician we lose a lot of our power. That’s for sure,”

As Glenn Reynolds has put it for years: “All they had to do is not be crazy” If they had followed that advice then we would be waiting till the election to fill that seat, instead Trump will fill that seat before the election and that conservative majority in the court will be in no matter what happens on election day.

That will be the final stake in the heart for Democrat on election day in terms of demoralizing their voters and it will be the end of John Roberts as a useful idiot for the left.

Three Reasons Why The Left Might Be Better Off with a Trump SCOTUS appointment NOW vs Later

Posted: August 28, 2019 by datechguy in elections
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Yesterday I talked about the reasons why the GOP should be happy to ignore Democrat Pleas to wait on replacing Ginsberg, now here are a couple of reasons why the Democrats might wint Trump to replace Ginsberg NOW!

Reason one  Murkowski and Collins

Right now the GOP has only a single seat majority in the Senate and the key swing votes are Murkowski and Collins.  Of all the senators in the caucus they are the most likely to force President Trump into a more moderate choice for SCOTUS.

If Donald Trump wins (likely) and has coattails (likely) the Democrats are apt to find themselves in a position where the votes of Murkowski and Collins (if she survives) are not needed to get a conservative judge across the line, particularity since Alabama is unlikely to stay Democrat and Manchin is very likely to vote his state rather than his party.   If that is the case you might see a Justice that makes Antonin Scalia look like Earl Warren.

Reason Two Turnout

Since the best chance for Democrats to win in 2020 is to further motivate potential Democrat voters.  Nothing would do so more than a successful replacement of Justice Ginsberg with a conservative, particularly as a club to use against GOP senators in states like ME and COL

Given that the primary reason for Democrat power IS power the short term gain from such an event is likely to pay high dividends at a time when they need such a thing to counter the Trump economy.

Reason Three Breaking the cycle of dependence 

One of the reasons why the Democrat party has pretty much become an urban regional party has been their reliance on the courts.  Namely why bother to try to win over the people when you can count on the courts to legislate your agenda for you.

If Ginsberg is replaced by a solid conservative now it will finally force the Democrat party to do what it needs to do to survive long term, actually connect with voters and serve their needs.  The president’s inroads with minority voters demonstrates the dangers of relying on a race based coalition and of course any splits in the various groups (see the Tom Hagen Math posts) are likely to isolate the party even more.

The party can’t wean itself out of it’s dependence on the courts and re-connect with the actual votes until that break is complete.  A Trump appointment would do that.

Of course this point assumes party leaders care about the future and when your party is about narcissism and not having children that’s a rather big assumption isn’t it?

Arizona ruling, and Supreme Court Election Politics

Posted: July 29, 2010 by datechguy in internet/free speech, opinion/news
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Everybody is writing about the court ruling on the Arizona Law. On Morning Joe today they talked a little about the national political reaction.

On Morning Joe they briefly discussed the political impact of the ruling. Charles Blow of the NYT lived up to his name blowing smoke claiming it helps the White House while Mike Barnicle made an important point telling a story that MSNBC viewers likely never heard.

I have yet to see anyone point to the BIG effect this will have on the election. Not in 2010 (everyone knows that the Arizona Law helps republicans) but in 2012.

No matter who the Republican Nominee is they will be able to point to this ruling by a Clinton appointee, they will likely be able to point to a Supreme Court that will have every justice appointed by Barack Obama ruling against said law (Let’s not pretend Justice Sotomayor or a future justice Kagan will vote otherwise).

Abortion is usually the big gun (and don’t get me wrong I expect any republican appointee to be against abortion) but this is an argument that is going to resonate on 2012. Conservatives and tea party members should be making the point every time they make a stop that a vote for Obama is a vote to strike down the Arizona law in the supreme court.

If the ad isn’t already cut it oughta be.

Oh and the “Hispanic” vote is not monolithic on this issue no matter what Chuck Todd says on Morning Joe today.

It’s always Massachusetts isn’t it?

Posted: July 9, 2010 by datechguy in elections, internet/free speech, opinion/news
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How is it the judges here are such idiots?

A federal district court judge in Boston today struck down the 1996 federal law that defines marriage as a union exclusively between a man and a woman.

Judge Joseph L. Tauro ruled that the federal Defense of Marriage law violates the Constitutional right of married same-sex couples to equal protection under the law and upends the federal government’s long history of allowing states to set their own marriage laws.

This is going to be a big game changer. Liberal sites on Memeorandom are all over it.

First of all those who said a constitutional amendment was not necessary have no leg to stand on, however those who were saying that knew it was false when they said it, they were playing for time. Little did they know that time state after state, even ones as liberal as Maine and California would reject Gay Marriage at the ballot box. So much for stalling for time.

Second of all democrats in borderline districts are now going to be in even worse shape. If the party opposes an amendment even more seats will be lost in swing states.

Third of all this is a big issue in both the Black and Latino communities and it’s an issue that the democratic party is on the wrong side of. They don’t want to deal with it but now they have no choice.

Fourth of all suddenly the Elena Kagan nomination becomes perhaps something worth fighting for and a test vote on gay marriage that democratic senators don’t want to have.

Finally this forces the president to make a call. If he comes out in favor of gay marriage that will be a bridge too far for the religious Black community particularly with only one vote making the difference on the court. There is no barrier to break anymore. That will be the difference in 2012. Expect him to speak against this ruling, but avoid introducing a constitutional amendment unless he is sure it will be defeated.

In one respect the timing isn’t bad for democrats, this is going to be a bad year anyway so you might as well get it all over with.

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