Archive for March 5, 2022

Thinking about after Russia invades Ukraine

Posted: March 5, 2022 by ng36b in Uncategorized

It’s time to start thinking what happens after Ukraine falls.

You might be forgiven for thinking that all the stories of plucky defenders of Ukraine indicate the war is going well. It’s not. While Ukraine didn’t fall quickly like Georgia or the Crimea peninsula, it is fairly obvious that the war is not going well for them.

The Russians are on the doorsteps of Kyiv. Yes, taking one’s capital isn’t nearly as important as it once was, but it is a big symbol and will give Russia the chance to setup a government body. It’ll be 100% illegitimate, but if Russia enforces it, it doesn’t matter.

They have nearly taken all of the southern land that borders the Black Sea. That’s really important for two reasons. First, that means you can’t resupply directly from the sea, which is the quickest way to bring heavy units like tanks and armor into your country. Second, it means that if anyone was to bring a carrier strike group into the Black Sea, they have to overfly Russian territory that is sure to be crawling with anti-air guns and missiles.

The Russians recently took a nuclear power plant responsible for a pretty large percentage of power in the region. Not only do they have the brainpower to run the plant, but now they can start cutting power to Ukraine.

And we’re only a little over a week in. Remember that it took 100 days to kick Iraq out of Kuwait, and around two months to take out Taliban leadership in Afghanistan. Russia isn’t on the timetable they want, but they aren’t nearly as bogged down as people want to believe.

So what happens when Russia wins? First, you better believe that China is taking notes about Taiwan. Every single sanction we throw at Russia is going to cause the Chinese to build defenses. Kicking out of SWIFT? China already has an alternative, called CIPS, that you can bet they will push as better than SWIFT over the summer. I’d expect China to crack down on its wealthy people with wealth outside of China, disguised as accusing them of “tax evasion.” Essentially, China will make China an island that can be (mostly) self sufficient in order to insulate itself from sanctions.

Europe? The good news is maybe the Europeans will finally get serious about their own militaries. Europe has been comfortable under a US military umbrella, but Ukraine is making them really uncomfortable about now. Remember when President Trump told Germany to pay its fair share of military costs for NATO? Remember when he told France that too? Wonder why Russia doesn’t take those two countries seriously, and what the consequences could be? Well, now you know.

Lastly, I’d put money on Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan pursuing nuclear weapons. Let’s be completely honest, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea could build them tomorrow if they wanted to. They possess the technology and brainpower to do it, and as they watch Ukraine, they are going to want their own assurance that China won’t decide to hurt them. Saudi Arabia would likely just purchase them, potentially from Israel or India, or even North Korea. They won’t wait for the US to not respond to an Iranian attack. Kazakhstan, which dismantled the nuclear weapons left in its territory by the Russians, is likely regretting that decision, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they buy weapons and secretly ship them into the country.

It’s not pleasant, but we should be thinking about what comes after Russia dissolves Ukraine. It might take them a month…but sadly, short of significant powers getting involved, its going to happen.

This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. If you enjoyed this, please consider purchasing one of the authors books for you or a friend.

OK Kids Who Wants to Be Drafted First?

Posted: March 5, 2022 by datechguy in war

We are being bombarded with messages to support Ukraine as they defend themselves from a Russian invention. We’re seeing as I noted collectives punishment put on Russians, people censored for supporting Russia and polls showing Americans are supporting arming Ukraine across the board.

Ukraine’s president will be speaking the the US senate by Zoom to lobby for more aid, a no fly zone and NATO membership. All of this is of course his prerogative and makes a whole lot of sense. If my country was being attacked I’d be going all out to get support from anyone and everyone who will listen and might give help.

But let’s get down to reality, while Ukraine is putting up a good fight the only way to beat a mobilized army is with another mobilized army. Ukrainians might be able to conduct a pretty solid patrician war if it falls and it might be able to hold out until the cost for Putin to achieve his war objectives is too high to keep fighting but without troops the chances of the Ukraine actually defeating Russia are below slim.

And that brings us to the headline above.

There is one indisputable fact concerning American war-making since the mid 70’s. It’s done by an increasingly smaller portion of our population. The all volunteer army means that in some areas, particularly liberal ones you are not going to find a whole lot of people who know soldiers or military families. That slice of our population that chooses to be boots on the ground has become i smaller and furthermore this administration and the Obama administration before it has fought a cultural war against those who choose to serve.

So what happens when you have a decreasing base of soldiers and the pressure on your country increases for military action?

Two words: A Draft!

All of these moves seem practically designed to foster a new draft on the youth of America The problem is that unlike the days of World War 2 and Korea parents generally don’t have all that <a href="http://<a href='https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/fertility-rate'>Sourcemany kids to draft:

Source http://www.Macrotrends.net

Conscription was not all that popular when the average woman (and I’m talking actual women not mentally ill folks who think they are) was having three or more children when parents are having one, maybe two even less and that was before people started making pitches for us to go save Ukraine from Russia.

What’s even funnier is the prospect of drafting teen and twenty somethings who are being taught to need safe spaces from microaggressions. It’s one thing for such youth trained in narcissism and virtue signaling to put a virtue signaling Ukrainian flag on their social media accounts. It’s quite another to teach such snowflakes to fight.

Yet all the signs and all the moves of the left keep pointing in this direction.

So before you ask me why I don’t have a Ukrainian flag or my twitter or why I’m not calling for a no-fly zone or NATO membership for Ukraine let me ask one simple question.

Who’s ready to sign up to fight?