Archive for March 8, 2022

No fly, no oil, no kidding

Posted: March 8, 2022 by chrisharper in Uncategorized
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By Christopher Harper

Americans may disagree on many things, but it’s clear they take the war in Ukraine seriously.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows an overwhelming majority of Americans (74%) support establishing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, banning U.S. imports of Russian oil (80%), and imposing further penalties on the Russian economy (81%).

It’s time for Brandon to realize he’s leading from behind. Again.

The Russian invasion poses a significant threat to various countries, including Poland, a NATO member and key American ally.

If Russia had invaded Ukraine 20 years ago, there is little question that the United States would be helping as much as possible. But the disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq have made U.S. leaders reluctant to engage in the world.

It feels a lot like America in the late 1970s and early 1980s after Vietnam when the United States was reluctant to engage in world affairs. America was tentative and fearful; Ronald Reagan changed that.

Although I support Donald Trump and DaTechGuy on most issues, I think they’re wrong about keeping out of this battle. I firmly believe that despite the troubles Putin and his military have faced in Ukraine, they’re likely to keep pushing their weight around in other places, such as the Baltic States.

Here’s what I think we should do:

–Remind Americans that the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances of 1994 pledged that the United States, Russia, and others not to invade Ukraine, in exchange for that country giving up its vast nuclear arsenal. Putin has violated that promise. While America did not commit to defending Ukraine, the United States is morally obligated to do so.

–Impose sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas industry. Even though oil exports have dropped because of nervous shippers and insurers, Putin is still getting the product through to European and U.S. consumers. This move would likely push up gasoline and heating prices, but it will also have Brandon and his minions reconsider the need for American energy independence. [Update: Brandon imposed sanctions. Now he needs to open up U.S. drilling].

–Help to create a no-fly zone with NATO over Ukraine to allow an acceleration of weapons deliveries and humanitarian supplies. Some analysts and government leaders are concerned that such a move would result in battles with Russian aircraft. That is certainly a possibility, but Russians have steered clear of Western fighter jets in places like the former Yugoslavia and Iraq.

Audentes fortuna iuvat. Fortune favors the bold.

Where I am on Ukraine? I Think We’re Being Played

Posted: March 8, 2022 by datechguy in Uncategorized

Michael Corleone: What’s the trouble between you and Mr. Joe Zasa?

Vincent Mancini: Just trouble. I’ll take care of it.

Michael Corleone: That’s foolish of you.

Vincent Mancini: Foolish of me? It’s a little foolish of this guy don’t you think? Right? RIGHT!

Michael Corleone: Temper like his father. Vincent, Mr. Joe Zasa now owns what used to be the Corleone family business in New York. Out of the kindness of his heart he gave you a job with his family. Contrary to my advice you took the job. I offered you something better. Something in the legitimate world. You turned me down. Now you both come to me with this bad blood. What do you expect me to do? Am I a gangster?

Vincent Mancini: No, no, you’re not a gangster, Uncle Mike.

Connie: Michael, that’s Papa’s old neighborhood now it’s a sewer. Zasa runs it like a disgrace the ladies told me.

Joey Zasa: I earned that territory with my talent. The commission gave it to me. You approved.

Michael Corleone: Yes.

Vincent Mancini: Hey, Uncle Mike, I’m just here for the party. I didn’t come here to ask for help. I could just kill this bastard. He’s the one who should be asking for help.

Michael Corleone: Then kill him. What does this have to do with me?

Godfather III 1979

I’ve spent the last week or more thinking very hard on Ukraine, the Russian Invasion, the Surprising Unity of the West on the subject and the almost Totalitarian response to anyone who questions things.

Like any normal person the sight of Russian column hitting another sovereign country, even one that was an integral part of Russia for a century before there was ever a Soviet Union rubs me the wrong way. It’s wrong and Putin should turn around his columns and head home.

I’m also however disturbed about what I’ve been hearing has gone in Ukraine BEFORE Putin went in. I got a little background from Lee Stranahan and this piece from Peter Hitchens talked about changes he had started to see in Ukraine around 2010 who put a lot of this in perspective:

Until that point, Ukraine had been a reasonably harmonious country in its 20-odd years of existence. After that visit I saw big trouble coming, both in the Crimea and in the Don Basin, where I also travelled that year.

Then of course came the 2014 Obama backed coup and the stuff that Hitchens was worried about escalated, to the point where you have a defacto Civil War with the two eastern provinces in revolt.

This is bad, and the fighting that has been going on their is bad but it raises a point.

Ukraine is a sovereign country, if they are making a mess of it, if they are mistreating their Russian Minority and if said minority is , at least in the east in revolt, does that give another country a right to go in? b

Stranahan thinks it does, he thinks Putin is basically cleaning out Nazis, I however think that Vlad is much more interested in reconstituting the old Russian (not soviet) empire and sphere of influence. I think he is using a legitimate grievance as the basis for a casus belli to get involved toward the goal that I have stated, reconstitution of the old Russian Empire and I think he felt safe to do so because of the green light the west in general and the Biden Administration kept signaling on his moves concerning the two eastern parts in rebellion, not the signals from that week mind you, but the signals for months. He saw an opening and decided to go for it.

As I’ve written before the west was caught completely off guard by the decision of the Ukrainian leadership to bravely stand and fight rather than to take the money and run. This threw everything into chaos in terms of Western Reaction and what to do next.

After seeing the reaction to all that’s gone on, how so many have gone into lockstep, how suddenly the media began to sing with one tune, how others suddenly moved in lockstep and more importantly how so many elites on different side were all using the same playbook all I could think of was this exchange from the classic movie The Three Musketeers 1948

Richelieu: The Jewels were presented to Buckingham only last night by the queen.

Lady DeWinter: Oh so he reached the Queen. How comical despite all your precautions.

Richelieu: I leave the making of Rochefort and his excuses can be quite imaginative. It’s his claim that some lone monster named D’Artagnan annihilated all my men.

Lady DeWinter: Oh no what a catastrophe!

Richelieu: It takes a good man to prevent a catastrophe, it takes a great man to profit from one. You and I are rare new creatures in this ancient world of impulsive men. We have intellect, we think and when we think our impulsive enemies are helpless.

I think the elites, the global warming crowed, the Soros’ of the world and those looking for graft see an opportunity here. Millions, maybe billions in aid to milk, millions maybe billions in pressure to increase their power and empire, an empire without borders.

And then there is Communist China, still actively communist, ready to take advantage of weakness in the west, weakness in Russia and the uncertainty all of these things bring.

In short it’s my opinion that Putin, Soros and others are playing a 21st century version of what used to be called “The great game”. I think they see a chessboard and us as pawns to be moved and played and sacrificed for their goal, of wealth, power and status.

The only way to win is not to play, so I’m not playing.

What should happen? Ukraine should treat it’s Russian citizens like citizens and let them be and stop repressing their opposition parties. Russia should pull out of Ukraine and keep the promise they made to respect Ukraine’s borders when they gave up their nukes and stop repressing their people. Foreign countries and leaders should stop using Ukraine as a personal graft playground (see Biden , Hunter) and let them live their own lives and function for the benefit of their own people.

That is what should happen if the world was populated by angels, and it’s not.

What will happen? Well in my opinion the best case scenario at this point is Russia pulling out of Ukraine because of losses and accepting a deal where Ukraine becomes India / Pakistan the nationalists in the east get their completely Ukrainian land and the ethnic Russians who don’t want to be a part of it are able to live in peace. If we’re really luck the Russian speakers in the western part who help resist the invasion will be accepted by the Ukrainian nationals and be able to stay where they are and be treated like full equal citizens of a free country.

What do I think will actually happen? I don’t know. I think Putin doesn’t want to admit defeat and I think the people pulling strings in the west to choke him want to be sure that there grift goals are achieved. I also think that if Russia looks like it could take the whole country Poland, Finland and the Baltic States are not going to sit by and let Ukraine be conquered and I think people with agendas here and elsewhere are going to do what they can to secure those agendas even if it means a longer or wider war.

The biggest losers are going to be the Ukrainians who are being killed, having their cities and villages attacked and their lives ruined, the 2nd biggest are the Russian conscripts who are being sent to do it. Here in America the big losers will be the regular people who will find life more expensive further widening the class divide into the masters and serfs.

All of that stinks, but as I said the only way to win this game is by not playing so I’m not. If other choose to do so or think differently, that’s fine but it’s on them.