Which of you wishing to construct a tower does not first sit down and calculate the cost to see if there is enough for its completion? Otherwise, after laying the foundation and finding himself unable to finish the work the onlookers should laugh at him and say, ‘This one began to build but did not have the resources to finish.’
Or what king marching into battle would not first sit down and decide whether with ten thousand troops he can successfully oppose another king advancing upon him with twenty thousand troops? But if not, while he is still far away, he will send a delegation to ask for peace terms.
Luke 14:28-32
Saturday we talked about how stupid is was for Russia to complain about Ukraine hitting fuel dumps in Russia under the argument that it hurts potential peace talks on the grounds that if you decide to go to war with someone they retain the right to fight back.
Now it’s Europe’s turn to be stupid. Don Surber pointed out that virtue signaling by the Chemical Giant BASF (whose name I remember from the old blank VHS tapes I used to by in the 80’s) might just prove costly.
But in the meantime, Brudermuller described that “It’s not enough that we all turn down the heating by 2 degrees now” given that “Russia covers 55 percent of German natural gas consumption.” He emphasized that if Russian gas disappeared overnight, “many things would collapse here” – given that “we would have high levels of unemployment, and many companies would go bankrupt. This would lead to irreversible damage.” He continued:
But in the meantime, Brudermuller described that “It’s not enough that we all turn down the heating by 2 degrees now” given that “Russia covers 55 percent of German natural gas consumption.” He emphasized that if Russian gas disappeared overnight, “many things would collapse here” – given that “we would have high levels of unemployment, and many companies would go bankrupt. This would lead to irreversible damage.” He continued:
“To put it bluntly: This could bring the German economy into its worst crisis since the end of the Second World War and destroy our prosperity. For many small and medium-sized companies in particular, it could mean the end. We can’t risk that!”
The dire warning of coming disaster in the event Russian gas is shut off came in response being questioned over whether it’s at all possible to abandon Russian energy.
Now remember what got them to this point, Germany joined others in going after Russia’s financial industry to punish them for their moves in Ukraine and of course like Russia’s shock and surprise that Ukraine would dare to hit back Europe in general and Germany in particular are shocked and surprised that Russia didn’t take this lying down.
Instead of flowing toward Germany and the EU, gas supplies on Friday and Saturday started flowing in the opposite direction, according to Gascade, the network operator.
Well there is US LNG but they’re already at full import capacity there, well what about Nuclear Power, oh wait:
Germany on Friday is shutting down half of the six nuclear plants it still has in operation, a year before the country draws the final curtain on its decades-long use of atomic power.
The decision to phase out nuclear power and shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy was first taken by the center-left government of Gerhard Schroeder in 2002.
His successor, Angela Merkel, reversed her decision to extend the lifetime of Germany’s nuclear plants in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan and set 2022 as the final deadline for shutting them down.
The three reactors now being shuttered were first powered up in the mid-1980s. Together they provided electricity to millions of German households for almost four decades.
Alas for Germany Russia and before them the Old Soviet Unions investment in the Greens and anti-nuke activists have paid off handsomely.
One might argue that this will not stop Russia’s economic woes and possible short term collapse and you might be right but it must be remembered a people with a history of destroying their own cities and crops to harm an enemy are likely not going to flinch at a hardship if they can get revenge on those they consider its source.
It’s very possible that the war in Ukraine will cause long term damage to Russia’s economy but it’s also very likely that they will be very happy to take as many of those who decided to take them down with them.
One lesson from the 2020 presidential campaign, one of many, is that more than ever information is power. More importantly, the flow of information is power.
The journalistic malpractice by the mainstream media, in regard to suppressing and censoring the Hunter Biden laptop scandal, is a subject I covered here at DTG last month. Glenn Greenwald, in a Substack post, deemed it, “One of the most successful disinformation campaigns in modern American electoral history.” As for myself I can’t think of one that was worse.
Joe Biden’s press secretary, Jen Psaki, has generally brushed off questions about Hunter’s laptop, unless she blamed “Russian disinformation” for its existence. Hunter’s MacBook Pro offers damning proof that the president’s son was the head of a Chicago-style influence peddling ring.
Last week Axios broke the news that Psaki will resign and next month join MSNBC and its Peacock streaming service in an on-air role. Axios touched on the obvious ethical concerns in its report. Psaki refuses to confirm the Axios story.
Going back to at least the Obama administration, there have been executive orders that prevent, for a period, senior officials in the executive branch of the federal government accepting a lobbying job. On his first full day in office, Biden signed an executive order that bans his political appointees from taking a lobbying job for two years after leaving their posts. Donald J. Trump signed an even stronger executive order on lobbying bans for his top staffers, one for five years, but in what I see as a bad decision, he rescinded it on his last day as president.
Biden, as well as his eventual successor, needs to sign an executive order that blocks future press secretaries, as well as White House communications directors, from media jobs for two years. From 2015-2017 Psaki served in that latter post, before leaving for an on-air job with CNN. As for that network, Psaki reportedly has also recently explored a return to CNN, as well as seeking jobs with CBS and ABC, according to Puck.
Perhaps it’s just a coincidence, but last week, vice president Kamala Harris was interviewed, exclusively, by MSNBC’s Joy Reid.
As I mentioned at the top of this entry, information, as well as the censorship and suppression of it, is power. So is the granting of access to the media of senior White House officials.
It’s time to rein in, at least a little bit, the White House gatekeepers of that information.
And oh yes, Republican press secretaries have benefitted from the “revolving door” from the White House to a media gig too. Psaki’s predecessor, Kayleigh McEnany, who served under Trump, is an on-air contributor on Fox News. She negotiated the landing of that job while still working at the White House.
Between COVID restrictions and a full time Job It’s getting a tad rare for me to get out to cover events, however yesterday I managed to get to the Catholic Men’s conference at Assumption College where I recorded this week’s Your Prayer Intentions Show for WQPH 89.3 FM (Every Saturday at Noon and Midnight) and managed to get a few of my old fashioned short interviews in that I’ll be posting on and off for the next week or two.
Today’s interview is with folks from Thomas Aquinas College which provides that rarest of products, an actual Catholic Education at a Catholics College.
I would venture to bet that if you send your offspring to be educated there. They will not only graduate with a solid opinion on the existence of natural rights but will be able to define what a woman is in one try even without a biology degree.
Back in September I warned that military recruiting would nose dive over the next few years, complicated with a rise in early retirements and people leaving after their first enlistment. Given the trend starting in 2018 when the Blended Retirement fully replaced the old retirement system, my estimate was that in 2024 we would reach maximum recruiting pain, where people would be leaving and we couldn’t keep up.
A flurry of recent stories seems to indicate that this prediction is still valid.
Camarillo said the Army’s end strength, or total number of forces, would go from 485,000 soldiers currently to 476,000 in fiscal year 2022, which ends in September, and further down to 473,000 in fiscal year 2023.
He said the Army decided on reducing its recruitment goals instead of lowering standards.
Breitbart
But maybe this is just an Army problem? Or maybe the Army was told to shrink and this is a face saving measure? While that’s possible, let’s look at the Air Force.
The Air Force recruitment goal is 27,452 new airmen by Sept. 30. Halfway into the fiscal year, 9,920 new recruits are in uniform and 5,314 have signed contracts, according to Air Force data.
“We will struggle to meet our recruiting goal for fiscal year 2022,” Thomas said. “This is really the hardest recruiting environment since about 1999.”
The Navy is offering up to $50,000 bonuses for someone to enlist for six years. That’s unheard of in the Navy unless you happen to be a nuclear trained Sailor. The only reason you throw lots of money at a human resource problem is because you can’t get the talent with your current method.
And the Marines? They do a better job hiding it, calling it “Becoming pickier” about who they recruit, but its still right in first paragraph: “…as the Corps looks to recruit fewer and better Marines…”
Recruiting is getting tougher. That point is pretty clear. But why is it getting tougher? Well, if you trust the Army and Air Force, they say its because Americans are fatter and mentally less fit.
“The biggest disqualifying factors are obesity, fitness and mental health issues. This should not come as a surprise. Obesity in America, including among youth, continues to increase. More and more youth are being treated for mental health issues and being prescribed psychotropic drugs for treatment. Current numbers coming out of the Pentagon are that the percentage of individuals qualified to enlist without a waiver has dropped from 29% in 2016 to less than 25% in 2022.”
Now, obesity is on the rise. Whether or not you trust the CDCs numbers, there are plenty of other graphs showing Americans, on average, being more overweight and more grossly overweight. There is also a rise in mental health issues, but I think its a problem of classifying darn near everything as a mental health issue and prescribing drugs for it. Its also not nearly as big an issue as one might think: by the CDCs data, its affecting somewhere around 6% of children.
I’d like to offer a different view here, and that is that even if the populace got healthier overnight, the military would struggle to recruit anyway, because the public no longer trusts the military.
There are plenty of pollsters that track trust in the military, often as part of a larger poll looking at trust in government institutions. If you look at Gallup, you’ll see a slight decline in trust, although Gallup lumps “a great deal” and “quite a lot” into the same category of trust when reporting numbers. It’s still a decline though, and when you look at a more in-depth breakout, we see the percentage of people responding “a great deal” declining while the “some” and “very little” crowd slowly grows.
Other polls also show this. This poll from the Reagan Foundation shows a massive drop in people who trust the military “a great deal,” and a large rise in people who don’t trust it “much at all.” Now, given its the Reagan Foundation, I was skeptical as to who they selected for the poll, but scrolling down to the bottom showed a pretty even split between Republicans, Democrats and Independent voters, so I’d like to think this is fairly representative of all Americans.
This lack of trust manifests itself in a lot of ways, from voting in politicians who actively campaign to cut defense spending to parents suggesting alternatives to their children desiring to join the military. When nearly half of parents would actively push their kids away from joining the military, that’s a pretty stark indicator that parents lack trust in the military. These actions make it much harder to recruit new members.
Take the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal. While almost no Americans (except the CEOs at Northrup Grumman and BAE) supported staying in Afghanistan, most Americans wanted an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, similar to the US withdrawal from Iraq that left an intact government (no, not the Obama withdrawal, the Trump one). Did we get that? Nope. Not by a longshot. Afghanistan was at a stalemate, and the number of deaths and injuries had dropped to nearly zero. An orderly withdrawal over a year or two would likely have left a functioning government and a decent US and NATO victory in the region. Instead, we got a cowardly retreat.
What about the military’s COVID-19 vaccine policy? The military chose to die on this hill and forced out hundreds, likely soon to be thousands, of members over the COVID vaccine. Religious waivers were denied out of hand, to the shock of many. The military really said the quiet part out loud: they wanted compliance, and they would crush people as needed to get it.
What about the military’s increasingly woke pandering, alluded to in the Army article? The recent push to be more “inclusive,” along with extremism training, has really irked plenty of service members. While its hard to get numbers on this, many service members are voting with their feet. It is starting to show in retention numbers. The military has always been a triangle, with lots of junior people on the bottom and less on the top. But that relies on the bottom people staying past their first enlistment. And well, they aren’t. The trend is slow, but with the Navy numbers here, you can see that there are less E4 and E5 Sailors staying around. The E6 and above numbers are steady, but as those members reach 20 years, many will choose to retire, and the new retirement system doesn’t incentivize staying in the military long term, so the young people joining today will be leaving in droves after a 4-6 year enlistment.
Let’s also look at one more statistic that is pretty shocking: the military’s use of non-judicial punishment. Most people don’t realize that if the military suspects a service member committed a crime, they really can violated the rights that citizens normally have in terms of due process. The process of punishing a service member through non-judicial punishment (called NJP) involves gathering some evidence and declaring that there is a “preponderance of evidence” to find them guilty. This legal standard means that the judge (in most cases, a military officer not trained in the law) finds there to be enough evidence that he or she is convinced by at least 50% that the service member committed a crime. Contrast this with “beyond a reasonable doubt,” which requires members to be convinced that there is essentially no real doubt that a member committed a crime.
If this sounds like it can be abused, you better believe it is. It’s hard to get data, but the Air Force released some information on the number of NJP cases per thousand airmen. If I add up the numbers, I get a rate of 45.32 cases per thousand in 2019, or 4,532 cases per 100 thousand. That seems really high, especially given that crime overall is falling in the US. Comparing it to total property crime rates in the US (1,953 per 100 thousand) and total violent crimes (398 per 100 thousand), it seems really high. Are Airmen engaging in more criminal behavior then their civilian counterparts? What kind of people are we recruiting that we get this high number? Or perhaps the system is grinding on otherwise innocent people in the disguise of “maintaining good order and discipline.” If that’s the case, how long will service members want to stay in a system like this?
The point here is that the military has become a hostile work environment, which is motivating people to seek employment elsewhere. Blaming obesity and mental health is a cop-out, because its something external to the organization that allow you to throw up your hands and say “People are fat and mentally unstable, thus I cannot reach my recruiting goals!” The SEALs and Marines have had tough standards for years, yet they always made numbers, largely due to people trusting those organizations and wanting to be there. That trust is gone due to actions the military took. Between losing wars, eliminating benefits and promoting an justice system that is broken and corrupt, the military has only itself to blame for creating a workplace that nobody wants to work in anymore.
This post represents the views of the author and not those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy, or any other government agency. That should be obvious, since those organizations will tell you everything is just fine with them. If you liked this article, please consider donating to Da Blog and purchasing a book by the author for you or your friends.
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