For quite a while I’ve been the voice crying out in the wilderness suggesting the days of the draft were getting closer
Now others are not only seeing it but calling for it as well:
The Department of Defense in 2022 found that only 23% of people in prime military age (ages 17 to 24) qualify for service. Why so low? Obesity, drugs, mental/physical health, or a combination of these. Obesity is the largest single factor.
To combat this trend, in 2022 the U.S. Army created two “prep-courses” that recruits can attend prior to Basic Training. One 90-day prep-course helps recruits meet body fat standards. The other course helps recruits achieve higher scores on the Armed Forces Qualifications Test. The U.S. Navy recently announced that it has raised its age limit to 41 years, the oldest of any service (thus far).
This is sounding alarm bells. The recruiting pool is getting shallower.
There has been much discussion recently in how to fix this problem within the framework of the all-volunteer military. Perhaps it is time to put into action an old saying, “If you want a new idea, look in an old book.”
Bring back the peace time draft.
It’s interesting to note that Professor Szalma did not mention the really key thing that is hurting recruiting, the war on military members both from the forced jab and the forced wokeness to the point where you get this from military families:
Listening to friends, other vets, and fellow Marines, that has to be happening more often than not. When I pose that question, “Would you tell a kid today to go in/enlist?” the first exclamation out of their mouths rhymes with “duck” and is followed by an emphatic “NO!”
It is so toxic.
this of course wouldn’t be a problem if the military has a large pool of potential volunteers but as I wrote way back in 2006 commenting at Instapundit two years before I started blogging myself:
Since the 60′s two unifying forces, for good or ill, were removed from the country: the removal of Judeo/Christian values as the semi-official moral code of the public schools) and the death of the draft/aka Vietnam. (actually ending in the 70′s). These two changes had one thing in common, it took two generations for them to have the following effect:
It is now unlikely that a student going to school today, had a teacher or parent who 1. Served in the military or 2. Was taught that moral code in school. To a whole generation now being born these are things that belong to outsiders. This makes the military and religious people outsiders and strange to one group and vice versa. Since the military draws predominantly from those two groups it will become more isolated from the rest of the public as time goes by.
This is not healthy for our country. What is worse is that one group has slowly vilified the military assuming them to be all dupes or thugs. A lot of this was political rhetoric but it has grown as a matter of faith.
And remember that was written 17 years ago.
Bottom line if you have a small pool of volunteers that you counted on and after decades of vilifying them said pool finally tells their kids to avoid service what do you get?
A Draft to make sure those officers who towed the woke line their superiors have pushed since the days of Obama have someone to command.
On the question of the need for a draft Glenn Reynolds answers: “Well, No, but if he keep wrecking military recruitment through lousy management we may get one.” I disagree.
Unless by some miracle we get a GOP president willing to clean house both in the DOD and among woke officers from Major on up a draft is coming. Folks are now talking about it openly and I suspect we’ll see it happen before this decade is over.
I can’t wait to see the reaction of Portland Oregon & Seattle. It will soften the blow.
Closing thought #1 Since the congress never got around to making women eligible for the draft watch a bunch of blue state boys suddenly start defining themselves as women when it comes. Alas they’ll be surprised at how fast even Justice Brown figures out what a woman is and isn’t once the deep state decides they need the manpower.
Closing thought #2 If you thing Social Security is a budget buster wait a few decades after the return of the draft and 10-20% of the population rather than two is eligible for veterans benefits.
The interesting thing about the all volunteer military is that a majority of the recruits come from more rural areas and states*, even though most people now live in cities. Rural people generally already know how to use firearms, know how to get up early and work hard all day, know how to persevere in harsh conditions, know how to show respect and follow orders etc etc etc.
If they institute a draft, most of the recruits will be from cities. I don’t think that will work out as well as they hope it will.
BTW: I spent 21 years in the US Navy and I used to highly recommend military service for any kid who wasn’t sure they wanted to go to college. I stopped recommending that about 10 years ago (roughly 10 years after my retirement) and for the past 2 years I’ve adamantly opposed any thoughts of enlistment. Kid’s who aren’t interested in college are much better off taking an apprenticeship and becoming a skilled tradesman…welder, HVAC, electrician, plumber, etc. The military is not for “normals” any more.
*That was my story: I grew up on a farm in a rural community. I was pretty much “over” school by the time I graduated high school so I enlisted. I initially only intended to do a single tour – learn a skill, get some experience, see the world, etc, but it turned out to be a perfect fit for me so I made a career of it and thrived. When I was in, my story was a pretty common refrain; shipmates from the big cities were a rarity.