Posts Tagged ‘russia’

Amid all of the political news that we’ve been talking about the 2nd biggest story in the world is getting very little play.

Namely that Ukraine is still holding it’s ground in Russia and continues to use drones to strike within their territory.

The situation is mostly unchanged from last week. Ukraine continues to operate freely in Kursk. You can catch my update on that operation here: Russia Invaded, Week 2. State of Play.

Russian airstrikes continue to drop, some of that can be attributed to Russian aircraft being deployed out of range of Ukrainan drones and thereby reducing their sortie rates. We have experienced the longest sustained period without a massive Russian missile attack since the war began. This, by my count, 45-day drought is 35% longer than the last 34-day dry spell between February 16 and March 22, 2024. While I can only guess why this is happening, the fact is it is happening. That the invasion of Kursk hasn’t provoked a missile blitz is very curious.

Furthermore some of Russia’s former allies are getting cold feet:

and even some of the folks who we thought might be joining in when the world thought Russia would just walk through Ukraine without a problem are singing a different tune.

For quite a while Russia has been considered an unstoppable military machine, but think about the answer to this question:

When is the last time Russia won a war an actual war vs an army that fights back when it did not have the US:

  1. Supplying it with arms
  2. Carpet bombing Russia enemies?

Hmmm.

Consider too what undesirable deaths occur in wartime. Men are killed in places where they knew they might be killed and to which they go, if they are at all of the Enemy’s party, prepared. How much better for us if all humans died in costly nursing homes amid doctors who lie, nurses who lie, friends who lie, as we have trained them, promising life to the dying, encouraging the belief that sickness excuses every indulgence, and even, if our workers know their job, withholding all suggestion of a priest lest it should betray to the sick man his true condition! 

C. S. Lewis The Screwtape Letters #5 1941

The truth is like a lion; you don’t have to defend it. Let it loose; it will defend itself

St. Augustine of Hippo

I noted yesterday that there was very little reporting on the Ukrainian incursion into Russia but Redstate has a pretty informative article:

The Two big developments:

That means troops to the south don’t get resupplied and in a war of attrition that’s deadly. Think of it as if Jubal Early’s Force had taken the rail hub at Harrisburg PA in 1864. If I’m Ukraine I’m destroying this ASAP

This however is even bigger:

That means that Ukraine can hold or destroy this state which would cripple Russian exports of gas (and not do any favors to Europe that needs it) at any time. In fact when the Russian Counter attack comes this will likely be the first place blown up.

I’ll let Redstate tell that story but there was a bit of info that I think goes beyond the bounds of the war into something fundamental:

Those are the key words: “institutional lying”.

For Russia this institutional lying has two purposes. For those doing it in peacetime it allows the diversion of funds that are necessary for anything from training to equipment to the person committing the graft, people below either are intimidated or get their share and the people above are told all is well as are the people. This of course leads to disaster when you actually needed troops or equipment to work.

The second of course is the classic problem of delivering bad news. When dealing with a leader who makes people disappear or whose enemies have interesting “accidents” this can really hurt your life span so you do not tell the truth, particularly an uncomfortable truth and have to spin a lie to cover when disaster strikes, to wit:

This by an odd coincidence was both the same problem that the Arabs had in their various wars with Israel reporting “glorious victories” to their people while Israeli was routing their armies, in fact the “Britain did it” was the same line that both Nasser and King Hussain used in the Six Day War because it obviously couldn’t have been the Jews who destroyed their jets on the ground and neutralized their air forces in a single day.

Because it CAN’T be the mere Ukrainians successfully pulling off this attack, it HAS to be a major power like Britain attacking them, which is of course ridiculous as the government of Britain right now is too busy attacking their own citizens who tweet or retweet the wrong things.

In fact the Labour party who are all in for radical Islamists in their nation are also using “institutional lying” to deny the Two Tiered Justice system that has arisen there

And of course such visuals can not be spread, upsets the people you know.

This is also why control of the internet is so important to the left in general and anyone wanting to sell a big lie in particular because you can’t sell the “big lie” if anyone can look on twitter and see the reality happening before their eyes

Meanwhile if Croydon:

Well we can’t have news of that spread can we?

This “institutional lying” is one of the basic MO of the left/media making it a point of telling an untruth that they either want to advance over and over and accusing others of “disinformation” if they contradict it.

Consider less that 50 days ago if you suggested to anybody that Joe Biden was not able to function you were called the spreader of disinformation and assured by everyone from Joe Scarborough to Kamala Harris that Joe was as sharp as a tack. It was only when this was publicly revealed in the Debate to be a life that this fell apart, sort of like the Russian defenses and the big push to get Biden out began.

The media was shocked SHOCKED that they had fallen for the “institutional lying” that they at best had enabled and at worst had committed.

And then once Joe Biden was forced out the institutional lying pivoted stating that old Joe had dropped his campaign of his own free will and that Kamala who just a few weeks earlies people were wondering aloud how to get rid of was suddenly portrayed as the most competent person on the planet.

Nobody wants to say the reality, well ALMOST nobody:

“I don’t know if [Biden is] happy about that decision [to quit]. The presidency was taken away from Joe Biden. And I’m no Biden fan. But I’ll tell you what, from a constitutional standpoint, from any standpoint, you’re looking at they took the presidency away.”

That’s Donald Trump saying the truth out loud and publicly which is why the left has spent so much effort trying to shut him up over the last few years.

Bottom line Institutional Lying is the primary tool of any group trying to oppress you, you can either pretend it isn’t happening or fight, your choice.

I’ll give the last word to Christ:

you will know the truth, and the truth will set you free.

John 9:32

Update: Glenn Reynolds makes a true historical point about the Russians that I forgot about:

Of course, the Russians have a history of carrying on when their logistics are shot. But that’s what they’ll have to do, if they are to carry on at all.

“We must stop this army of Grant’s before he gets to the James River. If he gets there it will become a siege, and then it will be a mere matter of time.”

Robert E Lee 1864

I was very surprised to hear about the new Ukrainian offensive into Russia, I didn’t see it coming and apparently neither did the Russians.

In one respect it makes a lot of sense, if there is a war of attrition Ukraine loses. It’s sort of like Lee sending troops against Washington to relieve pressure on Richmond. The difference of course is that Ukraine is getting plenty of supplies from the west and has decided to act proactively. If it works out it takes out a main Russian supply hub and complicates things for the troops in Donbass. This could give Ukraine a boost in getting better terms from Russia or perhaps cause them to decide that it just isn’t worth it or even bring down Putin.

Of course it’s also possible that it causes Russia to allocate resources to crush this offensive and drive into the heart of Ukraine figuring they’ve gone all in to raise the troops for this offensive, or even back Putin into a nuclear corner.

I have no idea how this ends but it’s a logical move if you want to change the course of a war that was heading for Ukrainian defeat.

What really surprises me is that this offensive is not only Ukraine having the balls to launch it but that it’s getting almost no coverage in the press.

I find that almost as interesting as the offensive.

Aboard a Chesapeake Bay steamer, not long after his surrender, the general [Joe Johnston] heard a fellow passenger insisting that the South had been “conquered but not subdued.” Asked in what command he had served, the bellicose young man — one of those stalwarts later classified as “invisible in war and invincible in peace” — replied that, unfortunately, circumstances had made it impossible for him to be in the army. “Well, sir, I was,” Johnston told him. “You may not be subdued, but I am.


― Shelby Foote, The Civil War, Vol. 3: Red River to Appomattox

I usually don’t engage all that much on twitter anymore as so few people know how to have a spirited argument in a respectful way but once in a while I see something that jumps out at me. Such a thing happened today when someone was going over Putin and his faults.

Now as a person who knows his history and Putin’s KGB background you didn’t have to sell me on his faults even before the war on Ukraine began. It also seemed clear to me with the offensive near Kiev that Putin had more in mind that the Donbas region when he got started and fears of his forces driving beyond the borders were legitimate and even if you thought the threat of such a thing was not legitimate if you are a resident of Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia your fear of such a possibility is certainly legit as the three occupations of those countries by Communist Russia, then Nazi Germany then Communist Russia again are still in living memory.

As we all know the Ukrainians managed to stop the push of Kiev but the Russians had success in the Donbas region likely with the help of the large Russian population there left over from the days that they were part of the both the Soviet & Russian empires, Ukrainian counterattacks which seemed promising faded and the front lines have been fairly static for a bit with the Russians holding Donbas and neither side at the moment getting clear advantages.

The Russians have the advantages of numbers and a much larger population to draw from, the Ukrainians have the advantage of fighting on home turf and a large amount of foreign aid that even subtracting what is being used as graft makes a big difference, but a war of attrition by its very nature favors the side with the larger population plus Russia has the advantage of huge domestic energy supplies and a strong market for such energy if they wish to export to India etc.

Still this is bleeding Putin and thus you have seen some peace offers coming from Russia and the Ukrainians have to this point dismissed them. This is their right. They are the ones who are fighting this war, doing the bleeding and dying and living with all the risks of war which when it affects water and electrical supplies can quickly turn a 21st century lifestyle into a 17th or 18th century lifestyle.

Now all of the rest of us have a right to an opinion on what Ukraine should do, but it seems to me that being 10,000 miles away from the front lines and only risking tax dollars it’s not my place to tell people to go and fight and die. Nor is it the place of others to demand they fight to the last nor degrade those who might decide it’s not worth the cost anymore. The idea that Putin is a bad man and working for his own motives and that Ukraine is better off making a peace deal of some kind is not mutually exclusive.

Now of course the ideal would be Putin going back where he started from but it seems to be that even with weapons and supplies from the west the Ukrainians have neither the manpower nor the skill to force the Russians out of the areas they hold. Furthermore there is always the threat of Russia using tactical nukes if they feel the situation gets out of hand. The genie’s that would let out of bottles would not bode well for anyone.

Still in the end it’s their decision. If they feel it’s worth the hardships of war for months or even years to retake the parts of the country the Russians hold, I respect that. It’s their call not mine. There is a nobility in such a call whatever the result and no matter how it works out nobody should think less of them for doing so. Hey, they might think that Putin will reach the point of exhaustion and withdraw on terms favorable to Ukraine, if they can pull that off they deserve congratulations and admiration.

On the other hand if they eventually decide otherwise, that their people just can’t bear the costs of war anymore I’m certainly not going to critique them as Putin apologists or being on the other side or traitors for reaching the point of war exhaustion that I think a lot of the people online pushing them to keep fighting would have hit long ago. It’s very each to make that call from the safety of a keyboard far away in a comfortable home where your food and electricity supply is not in doubt. If they make a deal, they make a deal and it’s their deal to make.

What would I do? That’s a post for another day.